OVERVIEW:
Missouri has become a fixture in the first round of the draft, and 2008 will be
no exception. The University of Missouri’s Aaron Crow should be the first
college righthander selected, and Wentzville Holt High righthander Tim Melville
has a chance of being the first high school pitcher selected. That would give
Missouri first-round picks in four of the last five years--Scott Elbert and
Blake DeWitt in 2004, Max Scherzer in 2006, Ross Detwiler in 2007. All but
Elbert has reached the big leagues.
The streak is likely to continue
into 2009, at least, as Missouri sophomore righthander Kyle Gibson is one of
the top pitching prospects in the 2009 draft class.
In a sense, both Crow and Melville
come with home-state asterisks as Crow went to high school across the border in
Kansas and Melville moved to the Show-Me State from Virginia before entering
high school, and continued to play summer baseball with a travel team based out
of that state. Scouts had to travel to an unusually wet and cold Missouri this
spring to see the duo, and the harsh weather looks like it may have taken a
toll on Melville, especially, early in the year.
The rest of the talent in the
state is fair, but not exceptional. One player who got plenty of late attention
from at least a couple teams is St. Joseph prep third baseman Johnny Coy, who
could arguably be the top basketball player in this year’s baseball draft
class. The 6-foot-7 athlete was first-team all-state in 6-A basketball and
signed a scholarship to Arizona State in that sport.
STRENGTH:
Top-level pitching.
WEAKNESS:
High School depth.
OVERALL RATING
(1-to-5 scale): 4.
Best Out-of-State Prospect,
Missouri Connection:
Aaron Shafer, rhp, Wichita State U. (Attended high school in Moscow Mills).
Top 2009 Prospect:
Kyle Gibson, rhp, U. of Missouri.
Top 2010 Prospect:
Nick Tepesch, rhp, U. of Missouri.
Highest Pick, Draft History:
Roy Branch, rhp, Beaumont HS, St. Louis (1971, Royals/1st round, 5th
pick).
Highest Pick, 2006 Draft:
Max Scherzer, rhp, U. of
Missouri (Diamondbacks/1st round; 11th pick).
Highest Pick, 2007 Draft:
Ross Detwiler, lhp, Missouri
State U. (Nationals/1st round, 6th pick).
Best
College Team: Missouri.
Best
Junior College Team:
Crowder.
Best
High School Team:
Ozark.
TOP PROSPECTS /
By Allan Simpson
GROUPS (College, Junior
College, High School)
1 Premium-round draft (Rounds 1-3)
2
High-round draft (Rounds 4-10)
3
Mid-round draft (Rounds 11-25)
| GROUP ONE |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 1 |
Aaron Crow |
RHP |
Jr. |
R-R |
6-1 |
195 |
Missouri |
Wakarusa, Kan. |
Never drafted |
11/11/1986 |
| SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Crow’s emergence as a
hard-throwing and polished pitcher has been sudden and dramatic. Undrafted in
2005 out of a Kansas high school because his fastball was only in the mid-80s,
Crow sat consistently in the 93-96 mph range last summer in the Cape Cod League
and topped at 98 with life through the zone that resulted in a lot of
ground-ball outs. In addition to leading the league with a 0.67 ERA, the
6-foot-2, 205-pound righthander limited hitters to a .140 average. In 40
innings, he allowed just 19 hits and gave up a mere nine walks while striking
out 36. His scoreless inning as the starting pitcher for the West in the league
all-star game, when he retired all three hitters he faced with ease, was
representative of his entire season. Not only did Crow impress scouts with his
fastball velocity, but he held it deep into games, got good movement on the
pitch and worked efficiently with it to both sides of the plate low in the
strike zone. He complemented his fastball with an excellent slider at 83-85 mph
and a quality changeup. He has a quick, long, loose arm action with good
downhill plane and good front extension. Crow, who went 9-4, 3.59 with 33 walks
and 90 strikeouts in 118 innings as a sophomore at Missouri, competes well and
rarely gives in to a hitter. He’s athletic and works quickly. With continued
improvement this spring, Crow will be on the short list of candidates to be
drafted No. 1 overall.—ALLAN SIMPSON |
| UPDATE (5/15): Crow came out of the gates as hot
as any pitcher in the country this spring, and was virtually unhittable before
Texas laid nine runs on him in five innings April 11 in Missouri’s wild,
wind-blown 31-12 win. Crow was solid since then, but not nearly as dominating
in running his season record to 13-0, 2.34 with 127 strikeouts in 107 innings,
although his final outing was a three-hit, 10-strikeout, 7-0 shutout of
Mississippi in the NCAA regionals. Before that dominating outing, one scout had
remarked that Crow was one player for whom the draft couldn’t come soon enough,
that he was losing a slot or two every week leading up to the end of the
season. But that opinion quickly changed with dominating win. Crow was healthy
and his raw stuff was as good as ever, with consistent mid-90s velocity on his
fastball and good sharpness to his slider. Any issues with Crow seem to be with
his arm action and his big wrap in back, and how durable he will be in the
future as a starter—raising the specter of his eventually landing in the
bullpen. Regardless, Crow still figures to be a top 10 pick on draft day and
have a short path to the big leagues.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
High School |
Hometown |
Commitment |
B’date |
| 2 |
Tim Melville |
RHP |
Sr. |
R-R |
6-4 |
180 |
Wentzville Holt |
Wentzville |
North Carolina |
10/9/1989 |
| SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Melville made a successful
return from a sore shoulder that limited him in 2006, and re-established
himself as one of the top pitching prospects in the country that summer. Not
only did he excel in the showcase environment, he was named MVP of the World
Wood Bat Association 17-and-under national championship, as much for his
16-for-27 performance as a power-hitting third baseman as for his pitching.
Melville is a draftable talent as a position prospect, but his smooth delivery
and 95-mph arm strength is an obvious fit on the mound. He is a polished
pitcher who commands his curveball and changeup well. There are many
similarities athletically and in pitching style/stuff between Melville and 2001
first-rounder Mark Prior. A native of Virginia, Melville moved to Missouri as a
freshman in high school, although he still plays his summer ball for the
Richmond Braves. He went 10-1, 0.89 with 117 strikeouts in 63 innings as a
junior at Wentzville Holt High, while hitting .443-1-30. Melville also pitched
for the USA junior national team at the Pan Am Junior Championship in Mexico in
late August, going 1-0, 1.12 in eight innings. Like most of the top high school
prospects, he was a 2007 Aflac All-American.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| UPDATE (5/15): Melville wishes he could have
replayed the first month of his spring season, or just canceled it altogether.
He had one start postponed when he was hit in the eye by a hockey puck in a
P.E. class, pitched one game after attending his grandmother’s funeral and
endured wet, 40-degree weather in a couple of other outings. He didn’t start
showing his customary 91-95 mph fastball and sharp curveball until the last
month, but scouts kept coming out to watch him. Depending on whether you call
California two-way prospect Aaron Hicks a pitcher or an outfielder, Melville
could be the first high school hurler selected. He went 8-1, 2.56 this spring
and hit .386-8-27.—DR |
| |
| GROUP TWO |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 3 |
Rick Zagone |
LHP |
Jr. |
L-L |
6-2 |
215 |
Missouri |
Crystal Lake, Ill. |
Never drafted |
9/30/1986 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Zagone was counted on to be the
third piece of Missouri’s Big 3 starting rotation, pitching between
righthanders Aaron Crow and Kyle Gibson in the Saturday slot, but it didn’t
work out that way. The strong-bodied lefthander was very ineffective early in
the season as he struggled with his command and location, and didn’t pitch with
confidence. A trip to the bullpen seemed to do wonders for Zagone and he threw
much better over the second half of the season. He has a fringy-average
fastball that will touch 90 mph, and works consistently in the upper-80s. His
best pitch is a low-80s slider that is big and sharp, and can be a
swing-and-miss pitch for him. Zagone’s changeup is still in the developmental
stages. He won seven games and pitched 101 innings as a sophomore starter at
Missouri, but his two-pitch mix and power slider more than likely make him a
bullpen lefty in the future.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
High School |
Hometown |
Commitment |
B’date |
| 4 |
Conner Mach |
2B |
Sr. |
R-R |
6-1 |
190 |
Parkway West |
Ballwin |
Missouri |
|
| SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Scouts regard Mach as one
of the best pure hitters in the 2008 class. He generates easy bat speed and
projects a ton of power, although his high school production numbers (.420-3-27
as a junior, .367-3-22 as a sophomore) don’t reflect that yet. He has rarely
been seen on the national stage, as he is an all-state football player
(safety/wide receiver) who has never participated in a World Wood Bat
Association or Perfect Game event. Despite his obvious athleticism from
football, scouts do not give him high marks on defense or his speed (7.12 in
the 60) yet but quickly refocus on Mach’s hitting skills. He has an all-field,
line-drive approach. He has strong hands that will enable him to develop
above-average power in the future.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| UPDATE (5/15): Mach had a strong spring, hitting
.481-5-20 and showing the bat speed and strong hands that scouts were looking
for. He got bigger and stronger since last summer, and that should continue to
help his power game grow. He still doesn’t rate highly for his speed and
overall athletic ability, which is ironic since Mach continues to gain
notoriety on the football field as a safety. He was all-state first team in
5-A, the state’s second-largest school class. Mach signed with Missouri for
baseball, where his older brother Kyle played third base this year and is
expected back for his senior year in 2009, adding a wrinkle to the younger
Mach’s signability.—DR |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 5 |
Jacob Priday |
OF |
Sr. |
R-R |
6-0 |
207 |
Missouri |
Sikeston |
Never drafted |
10/2/1985 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Priday established himself as
the model of consistency as a college power hitter, starting with his 9 HR/67
RBI freshman year in 2005, and continuing through his .343-16-62 senior season.
He is Missouri’s all-time leader in home runs (49) and RBIs (238), along with
extra-base hits and total bases. His April 11 game against Texas was the stuff
of legends: 5-for-5, four home runs, six runs scored and 9 RBIs. It was
actually Priday’s third five-hit game of his career; he also had five hits in a
game against then No. 1-ranked Florida as a sophomore. He is an extra strong
hitter who more overpowers the ball than anything else. Priday is not a
graceful outfielder and has often DH’d during his college career. He will be
limited to a DH/left field-role in professional ball.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
High School |
Hometown |
Commitment |
B’date |
| 6 |
Johnny Coy |
3B/OF |
Sr. |
R-R |
6-7 |
195 |
Benton |
St. Joseph |
Arizona State (BB) |
|
| SCOUTING REPORT: Coy is one of the more unlikely
potential top 10-round draft choices, but there seems to be more and more
reason to believe that might happen as Coy attended numerous workouts prior to
the draft. Coy is better known as a basketball player and was a Missouri 6-A
first-team all-state forward. He has signed a basketball scholarship with
Arizona State. But Coy has huge power with the bat and surprising hitting
skills for his size and length. He hit .650 with 11 home runs this spring, many
of them tape-measure shots, and .479-10-52 as a junior. He plays third base now
but worked out with teams as a left fielder. Coy’s interest in baseball seems
sincere as he missed large stretches of the AAU summer basketball circuit the
past two years while playing summer baseball. Numerous published articles in
local newspapers quote Coy and his family as saying they are very serious about
baseball and would consider signing “for anything in the 8th round or better.”—DAVID
RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 7 |
Matt Frevert |
RHP |
Jr. |
R-R |
6-1 |
200 |
Missouri State |
Columbia |
Never drafted |
11/16/1986 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Frevert worked as the Missouri
State closer this spring, going 6-1, 4.12 with eight saves. He was slated to be
the regular closer as a sophomore but battled elbow tenderness and threw only
19 innings, though he walked only four and struck out 33 while posting a 0.47
ERA. Frevert has two power pitches and has always been a strikeout pitcher,
with 123 in 92 college innings. He has a long, extended arm action and a
cross-body delivery that makes it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball,
and is wild enough that hitters don’t feel comfortable in the box anyway.
Frevert’s fastball is in the 90-92 mph range and he complements it with a low-
to mid-80s slider that gets a big, sweeping break when he stays on top of it.—DAVID
RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
High School |
Hometown |
Commitment |
B’date |
| 8 |
Charlie Lowell |
LHP |
Sr. |
L-L |
6-3 |
215 |
Winfield |
Old Monroe |
Wichita State |
10/25/1990 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Tim Melville was the
high-profile prep pitcher in Missouri this year, but Lowell was the most
dominant hurler in the state. He allowed an earned run in his first inning of
the year, then fashioned a Missouri state record with a 51 consecutive-inning
streak without allowing another run, to finish at 8-0, 0.13 with 118 K’s in 52
innings. Lowell has a loose, athletic delivery and still projects to add to his
present stuff despite his big frame. He throws in the upper-80s with his
fastball and has very good lefthander’s movement along with a sharp-breaking
curveball that he commands well as his second pitch.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| |
| GROUP THREE |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 9 |
Tim Clubb |
RHP |
So. |
R-R |
6-2 |
190 |
Missouri State |
Eureka |
Never drafted |
9/4/1986 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Clubb was one of the most
successful pitchers in college baseball this year, going 11-0, 2.52 in 103
innings to earn Missouri Valley Conference pitcher of the year honors. He’s a
third year sophomore as he red-shirted in 2006 due to ulnar nerve surgery in
his elbow. Clubb doesn’t have overpowering stuff but has a full selection of
four pitches he can use and command, and a somewhat deceptive delivery. Clubb’s
fastball is generally in the 86-88 mph range and will occasionally touch 90-91.
He pitches well down in the zone and to the corners with his fastball and uses
it inside to righthanded hitters to set up his other pitches. Clubb throws both
a slider and curveball as breaking pitches, and the slider grades out as his
best overall pitch. He also has a changeup.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 10 |
Dave Sever |
RHP |
Jr. |
R-R |
6-4 |
195 |
St. Louis |
Burr Ridge, Ill. |
Never drafted |
9/17/1986 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Sever got more interest from
scouts than his more-successful junior teammate Scott Turmail (7-6, 3.12).
Turmail is more of a control-oriented, senior-sign type of pitcher, whereas
Sever didn’t get the immediate results (5-6, 5.12) but has much better raw
stuff and projects. Sever will pitch at solid-average with his fastball and
touch 92-93 mph on occasion. He throws a slurve-type breaking ball that will
need tightening up at the next level, but he might be better served with a
slider. Sever also throws a workable changeup. He has good control for a hard
thrower and doesn’t walk many hitters (29 in 93 innings), but does leave a lot
of pitches up and in the middle of the plate.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 11 |
Ryan Mantle |
OF |
Jr. |
R-R |
6-3 |
205 |
Missouri State |
Wildwood |
Never drafted |
7/12/1986 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Yes, Mantle is a relative of the
late Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle, a distant third cousin. He is a prospect in
his own right, with a very good combination of power potential, speed and
overall athletic ability. His present-power is more of the line-drive,
gap-to-gap type and he hit .298-4-30 this spring with 20 doubles. Mantle is an
above-average runner underway, with long strides and an easy running stride. He
was a high school teammate of Missouri State ace righthander Tim Clubb.—DAVID
RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 12 |
Ryan Lollis |
OF |
Jr. |
L-L |
6-2 |
185 |
Missouri |
Houston, Texas |
Pirates ’05 (20) |
12/16/1986 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Lollis is a graceful athlete
with solid tools across the board. He shows signs of being a plus defensive
outfielder, with fringy-plus speed that gives him excellent range in center
field, and enough arm strength for right field. Lollis hasn’t been able to put
it together offensively, though, to convince scouts that he will be able to hit
at the next level. He has turned into a contact hitter with a wrap to get the
bat started and has trouble with good velocity. Lollis has the frame and
strength to swing the bat with authority, and it might just be a matter of
changing his mental approach to hitting. He hit .321-1-40 this year with 36
walks. He was a 20th-round pick out of high school but may have to wait for his
senior year to have a similar chance to be drafted that high again.—DAVID
RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
Junior College |
Prev. Drafted |
Commitment |
B’date |
| 13 |
Matt Sample |
RHP |
Fr. |
R-R |
6-5 |
195 |
Crowder |
Pea Ridge, Ark. |
Never drafted |
8/16/1988 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Sample has an excellent
pitcher’s frame and physique with a loose, quick deceptive arm action. His
fastball has peaked at 92 mph. Those are the positives. On the flip side, he
lacks a feel for his secondary pitches (73-74 mph slider, 77-78 mph changeup),
and has minimum ability to throw strikes as he has trouble repeating his
delivery. He went just 4-4, 5.67 as a junior college freshman, with 31 walks
and 55 strikeouts in 46 innings. He got limited exposure as scouts had a
difficult time seeing him this spring as he was used primarily in a bullpen
role.—ALLAN SIMPSON |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
High School |
Hometown |
Commitment |
B’date |
| 14 |
William Piwnica-Worms |
OF |
Sr. |
R-R |
6-2 |
200 |
Watkins |
St. Louis |
Duke |
4/1/1990 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Piwnica-Worms is a live-bodied,
all-around athlete who has the tools and upside to develop into a top prospect
after three or four years in college at Duke. He’s a 6.63 runner in the 60 and
often plays faster than that because of his hustling, all-out style of play.
Piwnica-Worms has a slashing, gap-to-gap swing that should produce multitudes
of doubles and triples in the gaps. He also started to show more home-run power
this spring, hitting 10 long balls to rank second to projected first-rounder
Jake Odorizzi in the St. Louis metro rankings. Piwnica-Worms is a three-sport
standout, but not in the conventional sports. In addition to baseball, he’s an
all-state soccer player and a kicker in football. He comes from a very educated
family; his father is a physician and his mother a professor of cell biology at
St. Louis’ Washington University. He is a top student himself.—DAVID
RAWNSLEY |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
High School |
Hometown |
Commitment |
B’date |
| 15 |
Joe Kassanavoid |
LHP |
Sr. |
R-R |
6-6 |
210 |
Lawson |
Lawson |
Kansas State (FB) |
8/14/1989 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Kassanavoid gave scouts a
sampling of his raw ability on the baseball field this spring by leading state
high school pitchers with nine wins and a whopping 154 strikeouts—by far the
state’s best total. His big frame, easy, effortless delivery and 90-plus
fastball also gave scouts reason to pause, but it’s possible Kassanavoid may
have played his last baseball in a while as he has a full-ride to Kansas State
to play football. He went 91-of-157 for 1,464 yards and 10 touchdowns last fall
as a second-team all-state quarterback, and was all-state as a linebacker and
punter for the state 2-A football champions.—ALLAN SIMPSON |
| |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
High School |
Hometown |
Commitment |
B’date |
| 16 |
Kyle Barbeck |
LHP |
Sr. |
L-L |
6-0 |
200 |
Blue Springs |
Blue Springs |
Mississippi |
2/5/1990 |
| SCOUTING REPORT: Strong and physically mature as
a 6-foot lefthander, Barbeck has solid present stuff. He pitches in the
upper-80s with a smooth arm action and good life to his fastball. His out-pitch
is a low-70s curveball that has good 12-to-6 bite. Barbeck doesn’t project much
physically, but he’s a good athlete who should be able to continue to make
adjustments while becoming an immediate contributor at the college level if a
team doesn’t make a run at him this year.—DAVID RAWNSLEY |
| |