OVERVIEW:
Even one of the “Big Three” states is allowed a down year once in a while, and
2008 is that year for the state of Texas. Only one Texan is considered a lock
for the first round, Texas Christian righthander Andrew Cashner. He’s one of
the biggest surprises of the spring as he’s a thrice-drafted junior college
transfer who blossomed as a reliever. Another surprise this spring, Houston
area high school righthander Ross Seaton, could also sneak into the first
round, as might a third previously-unheralded righthander, Rice’s Bryan Price.
Put into perspective, Texas had
three to five prospects drafted in the first round in every year from 2002-07.
Rice even had three selected in the first 10 picks in 2004.
Looking at the rosters of the top
colleges in the state (Rice, Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Baylor), and you see
part of the explanation. All these schools are heavily loaded with freshman and
sophomores, especially in their starting rotations. Texas’ top starter is a
freshman, and part of its struggles this year is attributable to a
freshman-laden bullpen. Texas A&M’s weekend rotation is two freshmen and a
sophomore. Rice’s Friday starter is a sophomore. TCU starts a freshman and two
sophomores. Baylor’s vaunted 2006 recruiting class were sophomores this year.
So this is merely a blip on the
map and nothing more.
Some of the best talent in the
state this year has been difficult for scouts to evaluate. Texas outfielders
Kyle Russell and Jordan Danks both have first-round-type tools, but have not
performed to that level. Rice lefthander Cole St.Clair, now a senior, looked
like a sure first-rounder after his sophomore year but hasn’t approached that
level since, despite having plenty of success on the field this spring. One of
the state’s best prospects, Texas A&M righthander Alex Wilson, hasn’t even
pitched this year after Tommy John surgery and his subsequent transfer from
Winthrop, and will have to be drafted based on late-season bullpen sessions.
The biggest impact the Texas
junior-college ranks had on the state this year, aside from providing perhaps
the top JC prospect in the country in Howard College shortstop Tyler Ladendorf,
was in feeding four-year colleges with talent from the 2007 class. Cashner and
Texas Tech reliever Zach Stewart both spent two years pitching in relative
obscurity for Texas junior colleges before blossoming this year, while other
potential top 10-round picks such as Big 12 Conference player of the year Jose
Duran of Texas A&M, Dallas Baptist righthander Tyson Bagley and Lubbock
Christian righthander Gary Poynter also attended Texas junior colleges.
STRENGTH:
College relievers.
WEAKNESS:
Impact talent.
OVERALL RATING
(1-to-5 scale): 3.
Best Out-of-State Prospect, Texas
Connection: Petey
Paramore, c, Arizona State U. (Attended high school in Allen).
Top 2009 Prospect:
Matthew Purke, lhp, Klein HS, Spring.
Top 2010 Prospect:
Zach Lee, rhp, McKinney HS.
Highest Pick, Draft History:
David Clyde, lhp, Westchester HS, Houston (1973, Rangers/1st round,
1st pick); Matt Anderson, rhp, Rice U. (1997, Tigers/1st round,
1st pick).
Highest Pick, 2006 Draft:
Brad Lincoln, rhp, U. of
Houston (Pirates/1st round, 4th pick).
Highest Pick, 2007 Draft:
Kevin Ahrens, ss, Memorial
HS, Houston (Blue Jays/1st round/16th pick).
Best
College Team: Texas
A&M.
Best
Junior College Team:
Grayson County.
Best
High School Team:
Plano West.
TOP PROSPECTS /
By David Rawnsley
GROUPS (College, Junior College, High School)
1 Premium-round draft (Rounds 1-3)
2
High-round draft (Rounds 4-10)
3
Mid-round draft (Rounds 11-25)