OVERVIEW:
Vanderbilt’s David Price was the No. 1 overall selection in the 2007 draft. The
Tampa Bay Rays locked in on the talented lefthander right from the start of the
season and never wavered in their pursuir.
The Perfect Storm is in
place for history to repeat itself as the Rays once again have the No. 1 pick
in this year’s draft, and talented Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez is
there for the taking. Alvarez established himself as the top prospect for this
year’s draft with two All-America-caliber seasons as a freshman and sophomore,
and two outstanding summers with Team USA’s college national team. Most teams
agree that he is the top talent available this year.
The Rays don’t necessarily
disagree with that assessment but the likelihood of Tampa Bay taking a
Vanderbilt player with the No. 1 pick for the second year in a row is
considered remote as the Rays focused most of their efforts on Florida State
catcher Buster Posey and Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham. The need
for a third baseman isn’t a high priority for the Rays as they recently signed
one of the game’s best young third basemen, Evan Longoria, to a long-term deal.
Alvarez could still be selected in
the first two picks, which would make Price and Alvarez the highest-drafted
tandem in Tennessee draft history. Middle Tennessee State righthander Dewon
Brazelton, the third overall pick in 2001 (ironically by Tampa Bay), previously
held the distinction of being the highest-drafted Tennessee product.
Vanderbilt’s influence will be all
over this year’s draft as the Commodores are projected to have the first four
college selections and the state’s top high school talent, righthander Sonny
Gray, is a Vanderbilt recruit—and heavily committed to attending Vanderbilt, by
all indication. The other noteworthy feature of this year’s draft from a
Tennessee perspective is the impact that Walters State CC, the nation’s No. 1
junior college team, will play. The Senators could have as many as seven or
eight selections—including three prominent players who are earmarked for
Vanderbilt in 2009.
STRENGTH:
Players with Vanderbilt connections.
WEAKNESS:
Lefthanded pitching.
OVERALL RATING
(1-to-5 scale): 3.
Best Out-of-State Prospect,
Tennessee Connection:
Logan Forsythe, 3b, U. of Arkansas (Attended high school in Memphis).
Top 2009 Prospect:
Kentrail Davis, of, U. of Tennessee.
Top 2010 Prospect:
Matt Kirkland, 3b, South Doyle HS, Knoxville.
Highest Pick, Draft History:
Dewon Brazelton, rhp, Middle Tennessee State U. (2001, Devil Rays/first round,
3rd pick).
Highest Pick, 2006 Draft:
Bryan Morris, rhp, Motlow
State JC (Dodgers/1st round, 26th pick).
Highest Pick, 2007 Draft:
David Price, lhp, Vanderbilt
U. (Rays/1st round, 1st pick).
Best
College Team:
Vanderbilt.
Best
Junior College Team:
Walters State.
Best
High School Team:
Farragut (Knoxville).
TOP PROSPECTS /
By Allan Simpson
GROUPS (College, Junior
College, High School)
1 Premium-round draft (Rounds 1-3)
2
High-round draft (Rounds 4-10)
3
Mid-round draft (Rounds 11-25)
| GROUP ONE |
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Class |
B-T |
HT |
WT |
College |
Hometown |
Prev. Drafted |
B’date |
| 1 |
Pedro Alvarez |
3B |
Jr. |
L-R |
6-2 |
225 |
Vanderbilt |
New York, N.Y. |
Red Sox ’05 (14) |
2/6/1987 |
| SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Vandy lefthander David
Price was the No. 1 pick in the 2007 draft and Alvarez is the early favorite to
go first overall in 2008, which would mark the first time in draft history that
a player from the same school went No. 1 in consecutive drafts. Alvarez
positioned himself as a premium future draft as a freshman, when he stroked a
school-record 22 home runs. He followed by hitting 18 as a sophomore while
leading the Commodores in batting (.386) and RBIs (68). He also was the
dominant hitter for Team USA the last two summers, leading the team in batting
both seasons. Alvarez is a complete player, but he is a hitter first and
foremost. He has exceptional hands at the plate with impressive bat speed,
natural lift in his swing and power to all fields. He has an excellent feel for
hitting with a sound, confident, aggressive approach and is capable of making
adjustments from at-bat to at-bat. His lone shortcoming at the plate is a
tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, resulting in 129 strikeouts over his
first two seasons at Vanderbilt. While Alvarez has a defined, durable upper
body, soft midsection and strong, muscular legs, his hands and actions at third
base are acceptable and he’s a steady, reliable fielder. He moves well at the
position with surprisingly fast-twitch actions and flexibility for his size.
Though he gets caught on his heels occasionally, he moves his feet well to both
sides and excels at coming in on slow rollers. His arm is accurate and has
on-line carry. There are some teams, however, who view him as a future first
baseman. He won’t be a base stealer, but he’s not a clogger and has sound
base-running instincts. Alvarez has all the physical ability to be a big league
all-star, and he also gets high marks for his makeup. His 2008 season got off
on the wrong foot when he was sidelined for several weeks with a broken hamate
bone in his hand. He suffered the injury in his first at-bat of the season
against College World Series champion Oregon State.—ALLAN SIMPSON |
| UPDATE (5/15): Alvarez missed 22 games with his
hand injury, but showed a full range of motion almost immediately upon his
return. Though he hit only seven homers in 33 games—far off his pace as a
freshman and sophomore—his easy raw power was unmistakable in batting-practice
sessions. He was hitting .336 overall with 25 RBIs as Vanderbilt entered
Southeastern Conference tournament action. By contrast, he also struck out only
19 times, a much better rate than in the past. Alvarez’ most significant
improvement, though, came on defense as he displayed better hands and range at
third. The bottom line is teams will be buying a bat—possibly an expensive one
as Scott Boras is his advisor—and those picking early in the draft will have a
tough time passing on a player that should not only reach the big leagues
quickly, but should make a considerable impact when he gets there.—AS |
| |