DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By Jerry Ford
May 23, 2007
Players Being Slighted
It always bothers me when we see what we believe to be high level talent being inaccurately portrayed in the media. It has happened to many outstanding talents over the years and it continues this year. I wrote an article recently that talked about the rumors and posturing that goes on in the MLB Draft.
The fact is that we, the scouts, at Perfect Game, actually differ in opinion on several of the players reported on, even by our own pgcrosschecker.com. Perfect Game scouts have not seen every player multiple times, but when we see a player many times over a two or three year period we form a fairly strong opinion of that player’s ability. Mentioned in the previous article was the fact that most draft information is gathered by speaking to high level decision makers in Major League Baseball. This, of course, gets us back to the posturing that takes place between the clubs involved. These guys are very good at what they do. Don’t challenge them to a “Texas Hold’Em” game. I say that with the utmost respect for those involved with MLB scouting departments. They all want to win!
In past years we have seen highest level prospects downgraded a bit too much in the days leading up to the draft. Of course, the information gathering is all kept strictly confidential and then people, like us and to a larger extent other media outlets, spread that secret information to the world. To be honest, I don’t like it, but it’s a part of the process. People are interested in what the leaders have to say and the leaders go unidentified. Rumors start flying and the next thing you know they seem to become factual to those who read the reports.
Scott Kazmir was an example of the rumor mill. All we kept hearing right up to the draft that year was that Kazmir was no longer the top prospect on HIS HIGH SCHOOL TEAM. Not even the top pitching prospect at that. There was an average sized RHP who threw 90 mph and had a good curveball that had passed Kazmir up. This was preceded by the claims that Kazmir was too small and followed by Kazmir having serious makup issues. Well, too small was an opinion we could live with, he’s not all that big! The thought by some was that Kazmir’s mechanics and size were likely to result in serious injury. We didn’t really get involved with any makeup concerns, but we had seen this player for three years and thought he had Championship caliber makeup. Stories of Kazmir being a tough sign were also thrown into the mix, but we really knew that Scott was going straight to pro ball where he belonged. He wanted the ball in the biggest games and biggest stage possible. He was our definition of a “prime time” guy. Just to be honest, we have been wrong before, but not in his case.
Most important was the fact that we had been following both the players in question for three years and there was absolutely no doubt in our mind which was the better prospect. Both players showed exceptional ability, but one was a left hander who we had seen throw mid to better 90s, with great life on many occasions. Kazmir also had a mid 80s breaking ball and no one was more competitive. The right hander was low 90s with a very good breaking ball in the upper 70s.
The draft that year (2002) saw the right hander get selected with the 5th pick while Kazmir went ten picks later with the 15th pick. We maintained Kazmir in our rankings as number one overall, despite understanding he would probably slip in the actual draft. Last year Scott Kazmir was a Major League All Star and he’s one of the brightest young pitchers in the Big Leagues. The right hander was the one who has suffered some injuries and had not been above A Ball to this point. Go figure, but it’s my belief that this was a case of rumors and posturing getting in the way of the facts. BTW, that 2002 draft looks like it’s going to end up being a pretty good one at this point.
So who in this year’s draft is getting or will get the short end of the stick in the predraft reporting circles. We have heard less than glowing reports on many very talented prospects.
There’s Jason Heyward from Georgia. While most are still high on his ability and projection, some have spread rumors that claim he’s not a legitimate first round type. We disagree of course!
There’s Jon Gilmore who we’ve seen as much as anyone over the past three or four years. He seems to get the “Iowa” label. Everyone seems to forget how he looked playing with and against the top prospects in the country at the Perfect Game National, Area Codes and the Aflac game. Now the word is he is a hard one to evaluate because he’s in Iowa. Ryan Sweeney suffered the same fate coming out of high school and went in the second round. Forget that Sweeney was the unanimous choice as MVP of the biggest scouting event in baseball (WWBA World Championship) in Jupiter, the previous fall. Jeff Clement and others have all gone through the same channels of standing out against the other top prospects and having that final spring season in Iowa become a negative.
There are many others who have had reports written about their supposed failures and shortcomings this spring. Some actually have struggled with changed mechanics. The top prospects always seem to be a magnet for the many instructors out there who want to attach their name to a first round pick or future MLB star. Young kids with great attitudes sometimes fall into this trap. There are many great instructors, but they’re not all great. When a young kid has something naturally special, why not allow the club that drafts him to decide if any changes are necessary? We have seen pitchers and hitters go to hell in a short period of time due to BAD instruction and advise! Good instruction or advise shouldn’t take a first round candidate and turn him into a DNF. But bad instruction and advise can and has done that many times.
Years ago I had a request from the father of an outstanding pitcher. He wanted me to work with his son on his pitching. I told dad, listen he’s probably going to be an early pick if we just let him be. I’m not going to do anything to change what got him to this point. I was somewhat wrong, he went in the fourth round. That made me even happier about not being involved in that process. I might have gone down as the one that cost him.
Finally, here is one I can’t really understand.
Justin Jackson SS from Ashville, NC. I keep reading rumors that his bat is questionable. I hear rumors he might have trouble fielding! And lately I’ve even seen rumors questioning if he can run well enough! Can I please go on record as saying… I completely disagree with all of the above rumors.
Jackson is a player we have seen play maybe 50 or more games. We have seen him at our showcases and tournaments playing with and against many of the top players in the USA, Canada and Latin America. Most often the only real question mark involves his hitting potential. But I not only think Justin Jackson will hit, but he will hit for power! Why? Because we have seen it! All Justin Jackson needs is to get stronger! Strength will turn him into a monster with the bat.
By the way, if the spring season is the determining factor for so many players, here is what Jackson did his final high school season. He went 51-98 for a .520 batting average. He hit 7 homeruns in his last 6 high school games to finish with 12 HRs in 28 games. He also hit 12 doubles and 5 triples along the way and stole 21 bases. 29 of his 51 hits went for extra bases. I know statistics can sometimes be misleading, but the point is, so can rumors!
How about projection? Jackson obviously has the body that you can project. He is a tall thin athlete with lots of room to get stronger. He has the bloodlines, his father is a big man and played in the Big Leagues. But when we see a player as often as Jackson we have another thing that we can use for projection, that being the players history! Our files are loaded with information that can show a players history and how much he has progressed over a period of time. Here are some very short (we have a lot more) examples regarding Justin Jackson and his history…
2004 – 60 time 7.13, Arm strength across the infield 84 mph.
2005 – 60 time 6.85, Arm strength across the infield 87 mph.
2006- 60 time 6.57, Arm strength across the infield 92 mph
Later in 2006 – 60 time 6.60 (slow track), Arm strength across the infield 94 mph and 93 from the mound.
Of course, we have much more information we could put into the mix, but looking at the numbers above couldn’t a reasonable argument be made that this is a kid who is very likely to keep getting better? I mean from a physical standpoint. And how does he become anything but an above average or plus runner?
Then there are the things we try to avoid (see previous article) Injury, Makeup and Signability. It’s not our place to get involved in those things, but I will say it’s my belief that Justin Jackson is injury free to this point, he has highest level makeup and we have no reason to believe he doesn’t want to sign. Yet if he slips far enough, maybe he should go the Arizona State route.
The bottom line in my humble estimation is that this is one of the top position players (high school or college) in this year’s draft! And yes… I do really like the kid! I’m sure that some of the predraft private workouts he attends should create some interesting results. While we’re at it… There’s Tim Alderson in Arizona. I think he is special, too. There are many others as well. Maybe, I will babble some more later on about a few of those.