DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By Jerry Ford
May 11, 2007
PG Player Rankings vs Draft Rankings
PGCrosschecker provides two separate types of player rankings. One is based on our opinions, the other based more on the opinions of the scouting community.
PGCrosschecker List of Top MLB Draft Prospects
This list deals with the draft only for the most part and information is gathered from MLB high level scouting people and others who are involved in the draft process. For lack of a better term, these rankings are basically predictions or an attempt to project the draft. The draft prospect rankings are based on how early or late a player is projected to go in the draft. It is a type of “poll”, based on what the scouting world might be thinking, more than the opinions of Perfect Game staff. Of course, these rankings can and will change right up until the day before the actual draft.
PGCrosschecker National and State Rankings
These PG lists of High School and College players in all classes are based on the opinions of PG staff members only. This is what makes Perfect Game a Scouting Service rather than simply a Poll Administrator. While the opinions of others might weigh in at times, the players are ranked based on what we (PG) have seen and know about the players. Sometimes there can be a big difference in where a player is projected to go in the draft and where that same player might be ranked in our Top Prospect List. This is because many of the important details involved in the draft are not considered in the PG Top Prospect Lists. Signability and makeup concerns are much more important in the draft than in the PG rankings. We rank players based strictly on how we see their ability rather than where they are projected to be selected in the draft. This can cause some major differences between the two lists at times.
Example of how the two lists differ at times…
In 2002 there were two very good prospects from the same High School in Houston, Texas. One was a LHP the other a RHP and both had attended several Perfect Game events while in high school. We had seen both compete many times.
It became very clear that the RHP was going to be selected before the LHP in the weeks leading up to the draft. There were several reasons why the RHP was projected to go before the LHP. We had heard some scouts actually thought the RHP had a better future. Some clubs thought the LHP would cost too much to sign. Rumors were flying around like crazy about all kinds of things. Leading up to the draft everyone who does draft projection lists had the RHP ranked above the LHP and rightfully so because the RHP became the 5th pick of the 2002 draft. However in the Perfect Game player rankings we had the LHP ranked #1 in the nation’s 2002 High School class.
So which list was right and which was wrong? The answer is, both lists were correct! The RHP was the first player selected so the draft projection lists were correct. Looking at the career each has had from 2002 to 2007, the LHP has already been a Major League All Star and is one of the brightest young pitching stars in the Big Leagues. So some would say our rankings turned out more accurate than the draft rankings that year. By the way, the high school player we had ranked #2 that year actually became the first high school player selected in 2002 and he also is in the Major Leagues and doing well.
It should be added that the RHP mentioned above did have TJ surgery and missed most of the 2005 season, but he is in A Ball at this time and that is the highest level he has seen so far. As always, remember that the story has not ended yet!
There are many examples of how the two ranking lists have differed over the years. There is no right or wrong list. There are only opinions and those opinions made by MLB clubs are the ones that count! There really is no way to grade a draft class until a few years after the actual draft, sometimes longer. So there are no bad drafts until all the results are in.
No one respects the Scouting Community more than we do at Perfect Game. Everything we do is based on helping players, MLB scouts and college recruiters. In order to provide a valuable service we must cater to and work with everyone involved in the process.
Some claim that the Perfect Game list doesn’t count and is of no importance. In the end those people might be correct. However, those who work in scouting for Perfect Game are very good at what they do. Ignoring the PG lists would be a complete disregard of duty for those involved in scouting and recruiting. They can laugh, disagree, get mad, etc., but they can not ignore! Ignoring qualified opinions can come back to haunt them. We consider our part of the process is identifying good players/prospects. In the end, MLB clubs and college coaches determine the identified players value to their club or program.
We could simply repeat/print everything people in scouting are telling us. Or we can work our tails off and form our own opinions and give people that information. There’s a place for both and that’s why PGCrosschecker provides both.
In the end, the most important thing is that if you’re going to provide a real scouting service… You must be willing to be proven wrong and stick by your opinions. Everyone in baseball knows that scouting is tough and it is very easy to make a mistake. Luck plays an important part, but these MLB scouting departments are unbelievably good. Many of the major colleges have absolutely outstanding recruiters who can pick out a player that everyone else is missing. Perfect Game and pgcrosschecker.com simply provide extra information. We fit in as an independent source and in no way can we compete with Major League baseball and what they are capable of doing.
I for one, firmly believe that the majority of Scouting Directors would rather read what we think about players than read about what they already know. On the other hand, I would rather read what they think. The more information and opinions, the better!