DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By David Rawnsley
May 4, 2007

A Plan of Attack For Draft

There are three basic organizational parts to the pre-draft routine for anyone, scout or analyst, who is preparing for the draft.

First, you have to gather the information. That entire process has changed dramatically in the past few years, as players are being scouted and evaluated earlier than they ever have before and the information base is huge. Just in the last 10 years or less have comprehensive follow lists of juniors and sophomores been available to even professional scouts. It used to be that follow lists for the upcoming draft were something compiled during the fall and winter prior to the draft, mostly on the phone.

That has all changed, as both high school and college players are extensively seen during the summer and fall by both area scouts and crosscheckers.

A veteran area scout complained to me the other day about how the entire process for the top high school players has been taken out of the area scouts hands. He used Tampa Hillsborough High outfielder Michael Burgess as an example.

“Burgess has been very disappointing this spring,” he said. “For area guys who didn’t get to see him last summer and fall, when he played out of the Tampa area for travel teams, it’s impossible to recommend him as a top five round pick. But if you saw him playing for Midland (Cincinnati ’s powerful Midland Redskins) last summer or in Jupiter, you know what he can do with the bat. He’s going to be strictly a scouting director/crosschecker draft based on that.”

Another area scout pointed out that Burgess has completely changed his hitting mechanics from last summer, supposedly at the recommendation of “his handlers”. 

“He’s all spread out now, with no stride at all and no weight shift and no front foot movement at all,” he said. “He centers balls now and they don’t go anywhere. I’d love for him to get to us at a comp pick but some scouting director who followed him last summer has to pick him before that, I’d think.”

The second step is bringing all the information together from across the country and across the different demographics (college hitters, high school pitchers, etc.) and melding it together. Which regions of the country are strongest? Which positions are weak this year? What positions are likely to get overdrafted? Which groups are likely to slide?

The draft is a supply-and-demand operation. Some scouts, even veteran crosscheckers but particularly area scouts, sometimes lose sight of that reality. There is a constant demand for different types of players in differing priorities. There is an ever-changing amount of supply for those demands.

Two examples.

First, it is well documented that catchers—both high school and college—are rarely picked in the first round. There are occasional exceptions, such as a Joe Mauer, or this year Matt Wieters, who will go very high. A couple of high school catchers (Hank Conger, Max Sapp) snuck into the first round last year because they were powerful lefthanded bats. But in general, the demand for catchers at the top level of the draft is low.

This year the supply of catchers, both college and high school, is very high. You hear talk about as many as a half dozen catchers who have first-round potential, but the history of demand just says that that isn’t going to happen. If you look at the PG Crosschecker Top 100, you’ll note that there are a multitude of catching prospects in the compensation round, the historical landing ground of most top-rated catchers.

Second is the always touchy issue of high school righthanded pitchers and 2007 is an outstanding year for this demographic. There is both quantity and quality and perhaps, just as importantly, it seems like almost all of them are throwing at their peaks very consistently.

This point is underrated but easy to understand if you’ve seen enough 17-year-olds pitch. With a youngster who through reasons of use pattern, conditioning, weather issues or mechanics is not consistent (92-94 mph and sharp one day, 88-90 and flat the next start), you really don’t know what you have as a prospect and as a draft projection. Some team might see a pitcher great the three times he’s been crosschecked; another team might see him three totally different starts and not like him much at all.

This spring, that just hasn’t seemed to happen for most high school righthanders. Whether it’s New Jersey ’s Rick Porcello or Indiana’s Jarrod Parker throwing 95-97 every time out, or lesser prospects, the reports from scouts seem to be very constant on most high school righthanders this spring. 

The result: A lot more predictability as far as slotting this difficult-to-evaluate group.

The third step is actually trying to slot players to teams in draft order.

At the top of the draft, this is a natural thing to do and relatively easy. The supply of choices (David Price, Porcello, Wieters, Andrew Brackman, Josh Vitters, etc.) is much smaller and the variables less.

But the deeper you go into the first round the more guess work is involved. A couple of surprise picks (like a Tyler Colvin or Preston Mattingly from 2006) throw off all calculations.

Even for a team attempting to figure out who is picking who ahead of it can be problematic and guess work, and some scouting directors will swear to you that they don’t spend a lot of time thinking about what’s happening above them, preferring to concentrate on their own draft order and signability and adjusting to what unfolds.

This last area, actually slotting players, is naturally what fans of the draft like to hear the most about. But it really is by a large margin the smallest part of the entire process, both in terms of the scouts’ reality and for pre-draft analysis.

Draft Notes

--The annual Excellence Games in Puerto Rico kick off next Tuesday (May 8) and should go a long way to determining the draft order for one of the most talented Puerto Rican prospect classes in recent years. Scouts who have been to the island recently say that shortstop Neftali Soto may have surpassed outfielder Angel Morales as the top draft prospect. Soto, an Oklahoma State signee, has shortstop actions and tools with corner infield size (6-3, 185) and projectability, and has opened eyes with his power potential. Morales is a Carlos Beltran-type athlete but has had contact issues with spring as he’s lengthened his swing seeking to hit with more power.

Other names to watch out for are shortstop Rey Navarro, lefthander Efrain Nieves (both of whom recently signed with South Florida ), lefthander Gaspar Santiago, outfielder Alexis Oliveras, third baseman Jonathan Rodriguez and catchers Emmanuel Quiles and Juan Garcia.

--Only two premium high school pitchers have suffered major injuries this spring: California righthander Erik Goeddel and Florida lefthander John Gast, both of whom are Tommy John victims. Goeddel’s injury happened early in February and he looks like he’s headed to UCLA. Gast, however, had firmly established himself as a potential first-round pick with some clubs before going down in mid-April, flashing a fastball up to 94 mph, a dominant curveball and advanced pitchability. 

There is already talk that teams could treat Gast, who has signed with Florida State , in the same way that righthander Nick Adenhart was treated in 2004. The Maryland high schooler was considered a sure first-rounder before injuring his elbow. The Angels picked him in the 14^th round, gave him second-round money and didn’t worry about the missed rehab time. Adenhart quickly regained his pre-surgery skills and is now one of the top pitching prospects in the minor leagues.

--The lack of quality righthanded college pitchers in this draft is a constant topic, which has given Kent State ’s Chris Carpenter a chance to rise quickly up the draft charts. Carpenter was a seventh-round pick (Tigers) out of high school in 2004, and pitched satisfactorily as a freshman but missed all of 2006 after arm surgery. He was slow out of the gate this spring as he built up his endurance but has been up to 98 mph the past few weeks. But with only 19 innings as of May 4, scouts don’t have much post-injury track record to go on.

Carpenter is a plus athlete. He was recruited as a 6-foot-4 shortstop out of high school and a 20-plus point a game scorer in basketball. A scout described his delivery and arm action as “well on the low end of the effort scale and flawless as far as arm action goes”.

--The top fifth-year senior this year appears to be Louisville closer Trystan Magnuson. Whether teams have a chance to sign the 6-foot7, 195-pound righthander is questionable at this point, as Louisville (31-13) has strong post-season ambitions and could still be playing through the draft.

Magnuson is a great story. He was cut twice from his high school team and walked on at Louisville , where his father is a professor, after his only college scholarship offer was to the violin program at Kentucky . Originally from British Columbia , Magnuson comes from a hockey family and was a nephew of the late Keith Magnuson, a former star player and coach with the Chicago Blackhawks. Keith Magnuson was killed in a car accident in 2003.

Mechanical changes and general maturation have raised Magnuson’s fastball into the low 90s this spring to go with a sharp 85 mph slider. He didn’t allow a run in his first 25 innings and was 1-1, 1.07 with five saves. He had allowed only 20 hits in 33 innings this spring.

Magnuson, who gained his American citizenship just last year, could go as high as the second or third round if he doesn’t sign before the draft. Still only 21, he was scheduled to graduate with an engineering degree.

Other fifth-year seniors who could factor highly in the draft or be highly sought after beforehand include righthander Stephen Clyne (Clemson, rounds 3-5), righthander Ryne Tacker (Rice, 5-10), righthander Jesse Craig (Brigham Young, 5-10), lefthander Chris Salberg (Stetson, 8-12) and outfielder Boomer Whiting (Louisville, 8-12).

--With Michael Burgess’s first round status in question (see above), the only two sure things among outfielders to be drafted in the first round are Georgia HS RF Jason Heyward and Tennessee CF Julio Borbon. Other top outfielders include Kyle Russell (Texas), Danny Payne (Georgia), Corey Brown (Oklahoma State), Grant Desme (Cal Poly) and Kentrail Davis (Theodore HS, AL), but each would be a surprise first round pick at this point.

Is there precedent for only one outfielder being picked among the first 30 selections? Looking back over the past 10 drafts, there is a huge variance from year to year for top-level outfielders. In both 2003 (Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Lasting Milledge, Carlos Quentin) and 1998 (J.D. Drew, Corey Patterson, Austin Kearns), there were nine outfielders picked in the first round. 

In 2004 and 2001, there were only two outfielders picked and only one of those, Auburn ’s Gabe Gross (Brewers), has played in the major leagues.

Going all the way back to the inception of the draft in 1965, there have been numerous years with only two outfielders picked, including a three year stretch from 1970-72 where two were picked each June, but there has never been a June draft with only one outfielder picked in the first round.