DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By David Rawnsley
May 18, 2007

Iowa Players Can be a Tough Read

Perfect Game’s annual Pre-Draft Showcase was held in Cedar Rapids, Iowa , Wednesday (May 16), with about 50 players on the field and many more scouts than that in the stands.

Although there were high-profile players from many states at the event, including Florida, Texas and Alabama, many national-level scouts and scouting directors had circled this mid-week date on their calendars long ago for a close-up look at Iowa City High shortstop/third baseman Jon Gilmore, a 2006 Aflac All-American and one of the top high school infield prospects in the country.

As almost everyone knows by now, Iowa does not play a high school baseball schedule in the spring. The state athletic association clings to an archaic tradition of playing school baseball in the summer, despite the fact that the students aren’t in school at that time. Free time for healthy teenage boys during springs long ago was spent in the fields helping plant crops. Today, baseball players in Iowa play in the weekend-based Perfect Game Spring League, go out for the golf team and act like teenagers, while their peers across the country play baseball every day and improve their skills.

While this hasn’t seemed to hurt the top-prospect pitchers who have come through the Iowa prep ranks in the last decade, it has definitely impacted the position prospects. It remains to be seen how it will impact Gilmore.

In the last eight years, Iowa has had three premium pitching prospects and three premium position prospects, including Gilmore. They are:

RHP Joel Hanrahan: 2^nd-round pick (57^th overall), Dodgers, 2000.
RHP Zach Hammes: 2^nd-round pick (51^st overall), Dodgers, 2002.
C Jeff Clement: 12^th-round pick, Twins, 2002; 1^st round-pick (3^rd overall), Mariners, 2005.
OF Ryan Sweeney: 2^nd-round pick (52^nd overall), White Sox, 2003.
RHP Jeremy Hellickson: 4^th-round pick, Devil Ray s, 2004.
3B Jon Gilmore: 2007.

Hanrahan, Hammes and Hellickson have all had some degree of success thus far in their professional careers. Hanrahan quickly reached the upper minors in the Dodger organization and had a shot at making the Nationals rotation this spring. Hammes is on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster and is reportedly throwing in the upper 90s. Hellickson was one of the top pitching prospects in the New York-Penn League last summer.

The story is a bit different with Iowa ’s elite position prospects, though.

Clement finished his high school career at Marshalltown High (in the summer) as the all-time national prep home run leader, but his stock slipped slightly before the draft and he choose to attend college at USC. He entered pro ball three years later as the third overall pick in 2005 and made it to Triple-A in his first pro year. 

Sweeney was considered a first-round talent during the spring of 2003 but some teams got skittish after Sweeney was advised to forego the second day at Perfect Game’s Pre-Draft Showcase that year and he slid to the second round. He made it to the major leagues as a 21-year-old and if you look at the White Sox box score for tomorrow’s game, you’ll likely find Sweeney’s name in it.

In retrospect, both Clement and Sweeney were first-round talents and should have been drafted accordingly. Clement didn’t get that much better in three years of college; he was physically mature at age 18 with a great baseball mentality. Sweeney was a no-brainer first-rounder, a 6-foot-4 lefty with plus tools across the board and big league-ready makeup.  But both suffered because they weren’t able to compete and showcase their talents over the summer at the top summer tournaments like most of the other top high school prospects in the country. However, Sweeney was named the MVP of the PG WWBA World Championship the fall before his senior year.

Pitchers don’t face the same type of obstacles as hitters do in such an evaluation environment. The scouts still came to watch Hanrahan, Hammes and Hellickson throw in April on 40-degree days. The mounds were the right distance and the radar guns still worked, so as pitchers they were given full evaluations.

I’m afraid the same thing may happen to Gilmore in this year’s draft as happened to Clement and Sweeney. He’ll be downgraded because it’s impossible to see him play under the conditions in the spring that every other position player is afforded, including those in other cold-weather states who are playing a spring high school baseball schedule.  To add confusion, Gilmore suffered a hamstring pull his first PG League game and is just now recovering.

As a scout who has seen Gilmore play a significant amount over a three-year period, I think he is a solid compensation-round pick, consistent with where Hanrahan, Hammes and Sweeney were picked. I know scouts who had no problem calling him a potential first-rounder last summer. He’s unquestionably a better prospect for me than those two pitchers were at the same stage, although maybe not as good as Sweeney overall.

But looking at Gilmore’s showcase performance on Wednesday, which was very good but not spectacular good, I just got the feeling that the decision-makers there are going to take a conservative line on Gilmore, much like they did with Sweeney and Clement. I hope not, but I won’t be surprised. 

And a few years down the road they could regret it, just as they did with Sweeney and Clement.

Pre-Draft Showcase Highlights

Below are some quick thoughts on a few of the other top showcase performances at PG’s Pre-Draft Showcase.

Danny Almonte, of, Florida Christian HS, Miami . Almonte showed his speed, arm strength and raw power; his game swings were much better than his batting practice swings.

Reynaldo Cortilla, rhp, Miami Springs (Fla. ) HS. Cortilla has been a late sensation this spring in Miami , as he didn’t pitch as a junior due to Tommy John surgery. He threw 90-91 mph consistently in Cedar Rapids with an easy, quick arm. He’s been seen up to 94-95 mph this spring.

Paul Demny, rhp, East Bernard (Texas ) HS. Demny has struggled this spring to match his Aflac All-American status of last summer, mainly due to mechanical/delivery issues. Those were still obvious, but Demny touched 94 mph and flashed some quality with a variety of secondary pitches.

Yasmani Grandal, c, Miami Springs (Fla. ) HS. I thought Grandal’s righthanded swing was shorter and quicker than the last time I’ve seen it. His arm and release haven’t changed; he hosed D.J. Jones (see below under “Fast”) with a 1.95 game throw right on the bag.

Nevin Griffith, rhp, Middleton HS, Brandon, Fla. Griffith threw just a bullpen for scouts but was loose and easy, and up to 90 mph with little effort. 

B.J. Hermsen, rhp, West Delaware HS, Masonville, Iowa . Hermsen, a 2008 player, is Iowa ’s next top-level prospect and on par with the six mentioned above; he’s 6-foot-6 and 230 pounds, and highly athletic with a 90 mph fastball and 75 mph curve.

Chris Hernandez, lhp, Monsignor Pace HS, Miami . Hernandez showed the polished approach we’re used to seeing from him, pitching at 87-88 mph with a sharp 81 mph slider and deceptive 77 mph changeup. Nothing is straight and he rarely throws the same pitch twice.

D.J. Jones, of, Gulf Shores (Ala. ) HS. Jones got things off to a quick start, literally, running 6.33 and 6.38 on laser-timed 60s. That’s flying. The solidly build 6-foot-1, 190-pound Jones also showed a powerful, controlled lefthanded swing (he hit 16 home runs this spring) and is a plus defensive outfielder.

Kyle McPherson, rhp, University of Mobile . McPherson is a unique prospect; he’s a 19-year-old college junior who graduated from high school at 16. He’s also 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, and threw 90-92 mph easily with a quality slider.

Michael Pair, rhp-c, Trinity Christian Academy , Dallas . Pair is a primary catcher who also plays third base, but his future is on the mound. He threw 88-90 mph and had the best breaking ball at the event, a big, nasty 75 mph hammer.

Ray mond Quinones, inf, George Washington HS, New York . Quinones has done some very good things with his swing this spring and is much shorter and crisper to the ball. He’s more of a third baseman in a shortstop’s body but has plus arm strength. He plays the game with great energy and enjoyment.

Chris Turner, of, Brandon (Fla. ) HS. Turner ran the second-fastest 60 time of the day at 6.47, and had a fast line-drive swing that sent balls consistently into the gaps. He’s an excellent student who has committed to Vanderbilt.

Check for reports on all the Predraft players coming soon.