DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By David Rawnsley
May 11, 2007
Comparing ’07 Prospects to Big Leaguers
One of the basic fundamentals of scouting is your responsibility to “paint the picture” of the prospect for your scouting supervisor or scouting director. The same principle applies if you are a writer/analyst trying to describe a prospect and his tools and potential.
I’ve always enjoyed the challenge of using comparisons between the prospect and another well-known player, usually a current major leaguer but sometimes a well-known past big league star or even a fellow prospect. I’m sure I’ve thrown some duds out there for past readers or scouting directors and I know I’ve heard some comps from scouts that have made me think, “what the heck is he thinking about?” But for the most part using comps is very helpful; it makes you look at a prospect in a different and sometimes deeper way.
One of the primary challenges of making comparisons is having real knowledge of what’s going on at the major league level. If your supply of comps is shallow, it’s not going to help you paint a very clear picture of the prospect you’re trying to describe. Comps end up becoming clichés, such as how any medium-build lefthander without a power curveball or 90-plus fastball is automatically Tom Glavine.
Actually, Glavine is one of the most unique pitchers of this generation, considering he’s built a Hall of Fame career without either an above-average fastball or curveball. Name the number of all-star level—let alone Hall of Fame-level—pitchers whom the same could be said about and you can see the point. We should place a five-year hold on Glavine comparisons as an industry and let it rest.
Some other tips for making valid and descriptive comparisons:
--Compare position to position. It does no good to compare a right fielder to a third baseman or a lefthanded pitcher to a righthanded pitcher, unless there is a compelling and well-explained reason.
--Physical descriptions should match as much as possible. A 6-foot-4 pitcher is not a comp for a 6-foot-1 pitcher.
--Whenever possible, stay consistent with ethnic background. A comp to Vernon Wells should be a strongly-built African-American outfielder; a comp to Pedro Martinez should be a wiry Latino pitcher.
--Be careful comparing players to the great ones. To say a player resembles Alberto Pujols is saying a lot. To say a pitcher has Greg Maddox command is huge unless qualified tightly. If you think a player is going to be just a role player at the big league level, compare him to a role player, not an all-star.
--Conversely, making a comparison to a player who has struggled (“reminds me of Jason Neighborgall”) or had serious injury or off-field problems (“similar to Jeff Allison at the same age”) says more than you probably want to say.
--If you just can’t find a good comparison for a prospect, then it might be telling you that he isn’t really a potential major league player. “Righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, 6-0, moderate power, average runner” sounds like someone in Double-A or Triple-A, which wouldn’t be a flattering comp, for a reason.
--Don’t get carried away with your ability to make comparisons and start comparing your wife to other women, especially old girl friends, unless it’s something like “you remind me of Eva Longoria more and more every day.”
Some of the comparisons below come from discussions with scouts or have been picked up somewhere in the media, but many of them are mine. Feel free to shake your head and say, “What’s Rawnsley thinking about?” if you don’t understand them.
RHP Blake Beavan (Irving, Texas) and RHP Roy Halliday (Toronto Blue Jays)
This one jumped out at me after I’d seen Beavan throw about a half-dozen pitches at last year’s Perfect Game National Showcase. Six-foot-7 righthanders, long extended release points, big deep two-plane breaking balls, 92-95 mph fastballs with life, highly competitive. Beavan has the talent to warrant a comparison to a Cy Young Award winner, too.
LHP/1B Sean Doolittle (Virginia ) and LHP/1B Joe Savery (Rice)
Comparing two present prospects isn’t common but these two seem a tight match; dual LHP/1B types, very draftable at their secondary positions, similar physical builds, similar tools sets, similar velocity problems this spring, long track records dating back to their high school development. A fully healthy Savery gets picked first, but that’s not a sure thing now.
C/1B Danny Rams (Coral Gables, Fla.) and C Cameron Rupp (Plano, Texas) AND 1B Matt LaPorta (Florida )
A Florida area scout made the Rams/LaPorta comp this week and it sounded good the way he defended it (LaPorta was a catcher in high school) and I’ve extended it to Rupp. He shares the same power profile as Rams and the same level of scouting concern about his defensive skills behind the plate.
RHP Andrew Brackman (North Carolina State) and RHP Scott Moviel (Berea, Ohio)
This one is too obvious and the staff at North Carolina State knew it, too, as they had Brackman host Moviel on his official visit that led to Moviel committing to the school. Like Brackman, Moviel is a 6-foot-10 righthander from Ohio who is a Division I level basketball talent. In fact, most scouts feel Moviel is well ahead of where Brackman was at the same stage as a pitcher.
RHP Jarrod Parker (Bluffton, Ind.) and RHP/OF Michael Main (Deland, Fla.)
There is more than a little irony in that the former “hardest thrower” in the 2007 class (Main) and the present “hardest thrower” are both slightly built, almost thin righthanders. Main has the edge in height and athleticism while Parker generates his 98 mph heat easier than Main has in the past.
OF Jason Heyward (McDonough, Ga.) and 1B Willie McCovey (San Francisco Giants)
The most common comp for Heyward has always been Fred McGriff and I might have even been the one to first bring that up after seeing Heyward as a broad-shouldered 14-year-old. But the more Heyward has developed athletically, the more he resembles the former Giant great for me. McCovey might be too old to be an ideal comparison, but a few might remember that he was a truly great all-around athlete who played outfield and had plus speed before a series of debilitating knee injuries changed his tool set.
SS Kevin Ahrens (Houston, Texas) and SS Chipper Jones (Atlanta Braves)
I heard this from an area scout the other day and I can see where he was coming from; switch-hitting high school shortstops with plus bats who will have to move/have moved to third base as pros. They aren’t a sound comp physically and Chipper was the first pick in the 1990 draft, but it’s a start.
SS Nick Noonan (San Diego, Calif.) and 2B Chase Utley (Philadelphia Phillies)
Noonan is a better pure athlete than Utley at the same point and Utley had more present power, but both are lefthanded-hitting middle infielders from southern California . For me, Noonan is going to develop some real power, not as much as Utley maybe, but enough to make this a good comp.
RHP Rick Porcello (Chester, N.J.) and RHP Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers)
I think this is as good as comparisons get, right down to the possibility that Porcello could be the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, the same position that Verlander was selected in 2004. Both are tall, angular righthanders from the Mid-Atlantic region with high-velocity fastballs that they hold far, far deeper into games than most pitchers.
SS Ryan Dent (Long Beach, Calif.) and 2B Davey Lopes (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Former Perfect Game and current Braves scout Tom Battista threw this one out and I thought it was right on the nose.
RHP Wes Simmons (UC Riverside), RHP Wes Roemer (Cal State Fullerton ) and RHP Barry Enright (Pepperdine)
Scouts and crosscheckers are making this comparison every day as they decide who to recommend for selection late in the first round or early in the second. Each fits the same profile: average velocity stuff, excellent command, great track record against high-level competition. Simmons has a tick better velocity, Roemer a bit better breaking ball and Enright a nod better command, but each has their supporters.
OF/RHP Greg Holle (Loudenville, N.Y.) and 1B Dave Kingman (Every Team Once)
The common comp for Holle is Richie Sexson, due to their height (both are listed at 6-foot-8). But Holle is a highly-athletic outfielder who also throws up to 93 on the mound, things that Sexson doesn’t share. The 6-foot-6 Kingman, some may remember, was a star pitcher at USC who threw in the mid-90s and was athletic enough to play outfield and third base at the big league level.
OF Angel Morales (Caguas, P.R.) and OF Carlos Beltran (New York Mets)
This is an obvious comparison for Puerto Rican scouts, as Morales’ tool set strongly resembles the Mets all-star center fielder at the same age. There have been other talented Puerto Rican outfielders since Beltran was a second-round pick in 1995 (Alexis Rios and Miguel Negron, both first-round picks by the Blue Jays), but Morales is the same type of raw athlete.
OF Ben Revere (Richmond, KY) and 2B Joe Morgan (Cincinnati Reds)
I feel bad making this comparison but I really like it and I think Revere must too—otherwise he wouldn’t be using Morgan’s trademark high elbow hitch in back. The reason I feel bad is that Morgan is one of the great players of the last generation and a unique talent. But if Revere could learn how to play second base (and he’s played it in the past), you have an undersized lefthanded hitter with plus-plus speed and some surprising pop in his bat, along with top level makeup. That certainly sounds like Morgan.
OF Brad Chalk (Clemson) and OF Jason Tyner (Minnesota Twins)
This comp is about as tight as a comparison can be for me. Look back at Tyner’s record at Texas A&M and it mirrors Chalk’s at Clemson; both are lefthanded-hitting speed players with some length in their builds and zero power.
RHP Cody Gearrin (Mercer) and RHP Jeff Nelson (New York Yankees)
A scout recently attributed Gearrin’s extreme success this spring to the fact “that he’s so darned unique”, which I took as a challenge for a valid comparison. Nelson was much taller than Gearrin and his out pitch was a huge slider, but the arm angle, velocity and nastiness are similar. Probably a C+/B- comp.
SS John Tolisano (Sanibel, Fla.) and 2B Todd Walker (Oakland A’s)
This is a very common comp in the scouting community and a good one. Walker was a highly-regarded high school hitter with position questions he’s taken with him through a solid big league career as a second baseman. No one would be surprised if Tolisano didn’t follow the same path.
OF Julio Borbon (Tennessee) and OF Johnny Damon (New York Yankees)
This is an-oft quoted comparison based on their both being lefthanded-hitting center field types with plus-plus speed and projectable power. Damon, you might remember, was discussed early in his senior year in high school for the #1/#1 pick in the draft but had mediocre senior year that dropped his stock. While Borbon has never reached those heights, his draft year has been hampered by injuries.
3B Josh Vitters (Anaheim, Calif.) and 3B Tim Wallach (Montreal Expos)
Tall righthanded-hitting third baseman from southern California with top-level talent. Wallach was a very good player over a long big league career, but he was never a great player. From a scouting perspective, I don’t see Vitters, despite his lofty draft status this year, having an extremely high upside—more like an upside of a player like Wallach.
3B Beau Mills (Lewis-Clark State) and 3B Mike Mangini (Oklahoma State )
Another common comp for the 2007 draft. Both are big-bodied, lefthanded-hitting third basemen. Mills has more power, Mangini is a grade better athlete and fielder.
LHP Josh Smoker (Calhoun, Ga.) and LHP Nathan Vineyard (Emerson, Ga.)
The reason these two Georgia southpaws are a good comparison isn’t necessarily based on their respective tool sets, but on the fact that they’ve been pitching next to each other for the same East Cobb team for many years. Crosscheckers regularly scheduled them back-to-back on their trips through Georgia this spring.
OF Michael Burgess (Tampa, Fla.) and OF Kal Daniels (Cincinnati Reds)
This is maybe a stretch because Daniels was more of an inside-out type of hitter as opposed to Burgess’ huge pull power, but the body types and general tool sets are very similar.
2B Tony Thomas (Florida State) and 2B Rickie/Jemile Weeks (Milwaukee Brewers/Miami)
A Florida scout pointedly compared Thomas to Jemile Weeks this week, saying that Thomas is more advanced right now than the Miami second baseman. And when you compare a prospect to one Weeks, you might as well compare him to the other. An added piece of the comparison: Thomas’ dad played baseball at Southern University, where Rickie Weeks was a three-time All-American.