DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By Allan Simpson
May 9, 2007

The Calm Before The Storm

This year’s draft is still a month away and the normal pre-draft preparations are taking place. Big league teams are busy assembling their preferred lists, taking a final look at players in a competitive environment as the college and high school seasons wind down, scheduling private workouts and making a determined effort to get signability readings on select players.

Early draft projections even appear orderly. Everyone agrees that Vanderbilt lefthander David Price is in a league of his own as the top prospect and appears to be a near-lock to be the No. 1 pick. There’s also a general consensus on the pool of prospects earmarked for the top half of the first round. PG Crosschecker is in the process of rolling out its own priority list of the top 200 prospects—and it will be a representative compilation of the talent available in the first five or six rounds this year.

Call it all The Calm Before The Storm.

While everything looks peaceful and somewhat orderly at this point in the scouting process, insiders are saying it may not be so peaceful and orderly on June 7, when the first round unfolds on ESPN, which will televise the draft (the first round, at least) for the first time in history.

“This draft has a chance to be very volatile,” an American League scouting director said. “I firmly believe with all the dynamics involved that we’ll go to the morning of the draft without really knowing how the first round will play out. It’s a deep draft, but after Price it’s not a great draft at the top. With the demands some players will make, I think it’s got a chance to be all over the place.”

Major League Baseball is almost certain to add to the uncertainty by wielding an iron fist in a continuing effort to hold bonuses in check. And that may have a profound impact in how the first round (and the early rounds, for that matter) shakes out.

One of the major flash points this year will almost certainly be the Boras Factor, a buzzword that is circulating among clubs. Agent Scott Boras is advising a dozen high-profile players this year, at least eight of whom are projected to go in the first round. There will be a possible ninth if 2006 unsigned first-rounder Max Scherzer re-enters the draft. Boras has been known to drive a hard bargain for his clients at the simplest of times, but he’s rarely represented such a volume of front-line talent as he has this year and the impact could be profound.

“It’s hard to say whether players will rise or slide this year on their own ability, or whether it will be because of the Boras Factor,” the scouting director said.

Rumors are rampant at this time of year on which team is taking which player. But based on some of the scuttlebutt going on in the field, here’s an early look at how the first half of the first round is unfolding—with little consideration given to all the last-minute wheeling-and-dealing that is almost certain to occur.

1. TAMPA BAY . Price is a virtual lock—one of the few near certainties in this year’s draft.

2. KANSAS CITY . New Jersey high school righthander Rick Porcello is the No. 1 target. In the end, it might boil down to whether the Royals want to deal with a Boras client again (like they did a year ago with No. 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar). If not, Plan B could be Missouri State lefty Ross Detwiler.

3. CHICAGO-NL. The Cubs are sitting on California prep third baseman Josh Vitters.

4. PIITSBURGH. The Pirates prefer a position player and have made it known in scouting circles that Vitters is their player of choice. But they are becoming resigned that he probably won’t be available. There are no other everyday players who warrant going this high, other than Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters—but it’s unlikely the Pirates will engage Boras . With a young, home-grown rotation that leans to the left at the big league level, the Pirates may not want another lefthander but they may have no recourse as this year’s draft is deep in that commodity. Detwiler or Clemson closer-turned-starter Daniel Moskos are the lefthanders most closely linked to the Pirates.

5. BALTIMORE . There are reports that the Orioles will zero in on one of three lefthanders—Detwiler, Moskos or North Carolina high school southpaw Madison Bumgarner. There are also reports they’re not afraid to go after a Boras client, with Wieters and North Carolina State righthander Andrew Brackman high on their short list.

6. WASHINGTON . The Nationals have hinted they want to make a splash with this pick and wouldn’t hesitate to take a high-profile Boras client like Wieters or Brackman—or even Scherzer if he does not sign with the Diamondbacks before the draft. Nationals vice-president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo will have a big say in the pick and he has never shied away from a Boras client in his previous role as Diamondbacks scouting director. One of his last duties with that club was drafting Scherzer. Georgia high school outfielder Jason Heyward and Canadian prep righthander Phillippe Aumont are also in the mix and would be candidates if the Nationals take a more conservative approach.

7. MILWAUKEE . The Brewers always play it close to the vest, but Aumont , California high school shortstop Mike Moustakas and Indiana high school righthander Jarrod Parker are the primary names that are circulating.

8. COLORADO . The Rockies are taking a wait-and-see approach. They’d consider premium hitters Heyward and Moustakas, if either gets to them; they’d also be tempted with lefthanders Detwiler and Moskos.

9. ARIZONA . College pitching is a priority—and Moskos or Detwiler would fit here.

10. SAN FRANCISCO . The Giants have a history of drafting players that are close to the big leagues and reportedly are considering Lewis-Clark State power hitter Beau Mills and Vanderbilt senior closer Casey Weathers. But they seldom do anything according to form in the draft.

11. SEATTLE . High school position players are the strength of this year’s draft and the Mariners are taking a hard look at Heyward and California prep third baseman Matt Dominguez.

12. FLORIDA . The Marlins favor high school talent and reportedly are looking at Aumont, Heyward and Texas prep righthander Blake Beavan.

13. CLEVELAND . Bumgarner and Parker are on their short list.

14. ATLANTA . The Braves have a penchant for home-grown high school products. The two best fitting that demographic are Heyward and Georgia lefthander Josh Smoker. Connecticut prep righthander Matt Harvey also enters the picture in this spot.

15. CINCINNATI . Among the college players linked to the Reds are Tennessee outfielder Julio Borbon, Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta, Mills, UC Riverside righthander James Simmons and Weathers. Texas high school third baseman Kevin Ahrens is also a possibility.

DRAFT NOTEBOOK

--If the price tag on Broward (Fla. ) CC righthander Matt Latos, this year’s top-rated draft-and-follow, is any indication, there will be a lot of players making a lot of money—or, more likely, being passed over. Latos is reportedly asking for a $3.4 million bonus from the Padres, who drafted him in the 11^th round a year ago. The amount would tie the record for a draft-and-follow, set in 2003 by Orioles lefthander Adam Loewen, the fourth pick in the 2002 draft. Latos, whose fastball was clocked at 98-99 mph this spring, has until May 31 to sign with San Diego or he would re-enter the draft.

--Clemson was supposed to be thin in pitching this year after losing its three starting pitchers from 2006. But that won’t be reflected in the draft as the Tigers project to have four arms selected in the first three or four rounds. Moskos has been an established high-round pick from the outset, and he has held form. But junior righthanders David Kopp and Alan Farina, whose fastballs have been clocked at 94 mph, have emerged from the pack as potential supplemental first-round or second-round picks. But the biggest surprise has been the emergence of righthander Stephen Clyne, a fifth-year senior who replaced Moskos as the team’s closer. Clyne, a Tommy John surgery survivor, has developed two plus pitches, including a 92-94 mph fastball with excellent life. “He was just a senior fill guy earlier, but he’s gotten incredibly better,” said an area scout. “If Clemson should get knocked out of post-season play before the draft, there could be a real dog fight to sign him.” As a fifth-year senior who went undrafted in 2006, Clyne is eligible to sign with the highest bidder before the draft; if Clemson is still playing on June 7, Clyne would be forced to enter the draft.

--Kent State ’s Chris Carpenter continues to inch his way up draft boards with every outing, even though not every club is reportedly prepared to draft the 6-foot-4, 210-pound sophomore righthander. Carpenter had Tommy John surgery in May of 2005 as a freshman at Kent State and scar tissue removed from the elbow 10 months later when he continued to experience pain. The second surgery has caused teams to be wary of his medical record, but Carpenter, a seventh-round pick out of high school, has touched 98 mph this spring—and sustained his velocity. He’s been brought along cautiously, making just three starts, but is considered to be close to 100 per cent again. Right now, he’s projected as a sandwich pick but could work his way into the first round by the time the draft arrives with continued improvement. Should he become a first-rounder, he would become the third player with his namesake to go in the first round in draft history, joining former big leaguers Cris Carpenter (Cardinals, 1987) and Chris Carpenter (Blue Jays, 1993).