Crack of the Bat
by Patrick Ebert

SoCal, So Good

Last year a pair of talented bats from Southern California high schools, Mike Moustakas and Josh Vitters, gave the 2007 draft class a pair of defining, potential impact players from the Golden State that was indicative of the overall regional talent.

The talent didn’t stop with those two young men, as Matt Dominguez also was drafted in the first round, while Nick Noonan, Ryan Dent and Travs d’Arnaud were taken in the sandwich round. Mike Stanton, Freddie Freeman and Austin Romine were all taken in round two, and the college ranks offered early round picks such as Aaron Poreda, James Simmons, Wes Roemer, Grant Desme, Barry Enright and Danny Worth.

Unsigned prep players Victor Sanchez and Kyle Blair have already made a strong impact for the San Diego program, while shortstop Christian Colon has done the same for Cal State Fullerton.

While this year there are several more promising high school players ready to make the 2008 California class another one for the ages, its the college arms at the very top of this year’s draft class that stands to define the 2008 draft, and that talent isn’t restricted to the perennially talent-rich region of Southern California.

First Round Arms

Brian Matusz has been identified for several years now as a favorite to go among the top two to three overall selections in this year’s draft. He was very well known coming out of high school, and opted not to sign with the Angels as a fourth-round pick, honoring his commitment to San Diego as part of a very talented class. Matusz has the ideal size and durability of a project staff ace, and the stuff to match, with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and a nifty changeup that is not only his best pitch, but may just be the single best pitch of all of the draft-eligible talent.

Fresno State right-hander Tanner Scheppers entered the spring without the history and past results as Matusz, but with just as much interest after throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s during fall ball. Built similar to Matusz with tall and long proportions, Scheppers also profiles as a prototypical staff ace given his power arsenal that also includes a nasty slider. Entering the spring Scheppers was considered a candidate to go somewhere in the first round, and after a terrific start he’s not likely to fall outside of the top 10 overall picks.

Bouncing back South, Brett Hunter of Pepperdine also was making some noise last fall after touching the upper-90s with his fastball. He’s spent much of his college career, including last summer with Team USA, coming out of the bullpen as a set-up man or closer, but opened this spring as the Waves’ Friday starter. I noted in a previous Crack of the Bat column that I was impressed watching Hunter’s velocity actually improve from the 94-95 range to the 96-97 range from the first to the seventh inning, which should give him a chance to stick as a starter as a pro. Unfortunately, forearm soreness has caused Hunter to be shut down until later this month, possibly early May, so it will be interesting to see how much that effects his draft stock.

Turning North again, Tyson Ross was also sidelined briefly due to injury, but has already returned to the mound, and made one of his most impressive starts last weekend shutting down Long Beach State as the Cal Bears swept the Dirtbags to continue their extremely impressive start to the 2008 season. Ross doesn’t have the stuff of Hunter or Scheppers, but he does have a well-rounded three-pitch arsenal, throws strikes and knows how to pitch.

Lefty Tim Murphy of UCLA has the best curveball of this group, and pitches in the 88-91 range with the ability to reach back for a little bit more on occasion. He does seem to fall in love with his curve a little too much at times, which may draw some unfair comparisons to Barry Zito. Murphy is built more like former UCLA lefty David Huff, and like Huff can get knocked around a little when he catches too much of the strike zone. So far, so good for Murphy this year, who is one of the few bright spots on an otherwise disappointing Bruins ballclub.

Looking at the high school pitching, Gerrit Cole from Santa Ana is clearly the cream of the crop, not just in California but nationally. With a whip of an arm, Cole easily approaches triple digits and mixes in one of the nastier sliders of the class. His stuff has very good natural movement, making him that much harder to hit, and he already shows a natural sense of pitching and changing speeds. The UCLA recruit is considered somewhat of a tough sign, and already is suspect to falling in the draft further than he should, a la Rick Porcello a year ago.

Probably not in the mix for the first-round, but not that far off are prep lefties Jarret Martin of Bakersfield and Brett Mooneyham of Merced. The two are very similar in size and stuff, with prototypical builds to handle the rigors of being a staff ace at any level while also having the stuff to match. Both continue to improve in all aspects of the game.

A pair of righties help even out the prep talent from California. Big and towering, Michael Tonkin of Palmdale may have one of the best sinking fastballs in the nation, as that and his odd, questionable delivery makes him especially hard to hit. Lakeside’s Miles Reagan continues to grow and improve his stuff, as his fastball approaches the mid-90s with greater regularity.

Looking back to the college crop, the talent just outside of round one includes a pair of talented pitching duos.

Senior right-hander Andrew Liebel has really stepped up this spring to front the Long Beach staff, throwing in the 89-94 range with a very good curveball and changeup. He has really increased his draft stock so far this spring with an ERA below two and a 46 to six strikeout to walk ratio in 47 innings of work. Teammate Vance Worley has had a promising power arm since his high school days, and while he doesn’t miss as many bats as you would like to see for someone with his stuff, that stuff is still going to give him plenty of chances to succeed at the professional level.

UC Irvine righty Scott Gorgen is having one of the best seasons so far in the country, with a 5-1 record and a microscopic 1.39 ERA. He and fellow rotation mate Bryce Stowell are a big reason the Anteaters are 19-3 with a collective 2.12 ERA. Stowell is probably the better pro prospect, with better size and pure stuff, as Gorgen’s pro potential may be somewhat limited given his sub-six foot frame. But Gorgen’s results, 88-91 fastball and very good changeup are likely going to draw the attention early from a team that places an emphasis on polish and performance.

The college closers round out this group, represented by Long Beach State’s Bryan Shaw, Cal’s Matt Gorgen (twin brother of UC Irvine’s Scott Gorgen) and Kevin Castner of Cal Poly.

Shaw has the longest track record, with 19 saves under his belt already during his college career, using a low-90s sinking fastball and improving slider to record the bulk of his saves.

Matt Gorgen employs a fastball-cutter combo to get most of his outs, and he like Shaw relies more on the movement of his pitches than the pure, sheer velocity. Including the four saves he has recorded so far this year for the upstart Cal Bears program, Gorgen has 15 saves during his collegiate career.

Castner is all about power, with an intimidating frame and presence and power fastball that can approach triple digits. He has struggled to command the strike zone as well as his secondary offerings, but continues to improve a slider that could make him a very tough short reliever at the next level. Castner is a draft-eligible sophomore after missing his first year in school with a shoulder injury.

Two-way Talent

The aforementioned San Diego recruiting class that Matusz was a part of included two-way star Josh Romanski, who figures to be groomed as a left-handed pitcher as a pro, but made a bigger impact last summer with Team USA with his bat, leading the team in batting with a .333 average. A very good all-around athlete, San Diego’s pitching depth this spring has allowed them to use Romanski as a mid-week starter while having him concentrate on his hitting (he bats cleanup for the Toreros) and defense (centerfield) during weekend series.

Aaron Hicks of Long Beach is the first of several California preps that have amazing tools and skills in all facets of the game. He showed off his talent on the national stage at the Aflac All-American Classic last August, getting on base a couple of times, swiping a couple of bags, playing the outfield, and coming in the ninth in an attempt to close out the game. His tool set is highlighted by his arm strength and his foot speed, as his arm allows him to shine on the mound with a mid-90s fastball and hammer curveball, and also gives him a cannon of an arm from the outfield. His speed allows him to track down fly balls effortlessly while also proving to be a pest on the basepaths. His switch-hitting bat may be the the final aspect of his game that will determine which area a team will look for him to pursue upon entering professional baseball

Bellflower’s Anthony Gose is a very similar prospect to Hicks, with very good speed and a tremendously strong arm. He is more raw than Hicks, as his velocity is best in shorter outings and his swing isn’t on the same level as Hicks, but the talent is just as evident. Gose’s package is a little more interesting in that he’s a left-hander, and generates velocity with such an easy arm motion that lead scouts to believe that he is just starting to touch on his endless potential.

Tyler Chatwood of Yucaipa is a little bit different of a two-way player, more of a utility player in that he could play anywhere on the field. His versatility and arm strength has led to an increased interest with his ability to catch, and his athleticism and profile is somewhat similar to Florida State catcher Buster Posey who has taken a career path similar to what many expect of Chatwood. From playing the outfield to the infield, from behind to the plate to on the mound Chatwood has done it all while maintaining a low-90s fastball as a pitcher and a line drive bat as a hitter.

El Cajon’s Ryan O’Sullivan hopes to continue to follow in the footsteps of his older brother Sean, first as an Aflac All-American and next onto the professional level. With a strong arm, power potential and a hammer curveball, Ryan has a very similar resume, and if he doesn’t follow his big brother as early as this summer, he could be pulling double duty at San Diego State for a few years.

Catching on

Any time you have an impact player at the catching position that could be taken among the top five overall picks you automatically have a commodity that increases the overall talent level of the draft. Left-handed slugger Kyle Skipworth of Riverside represents that player this year, with impressive offensive potential and improving defensive skills. He has drawn unfair comparisons to Joe Mauer given his large yet athletic stature and lefty bat, and has hit in front of large scouting contingents at some of the more prominent national showcase events, including last summer’s Aflac All-American Classic, where he clubbed a two-run home run to deep left-centerfield.

The early round talent drops off significantly after Skipworth, although there are a pair of college backstops that could be taken in the early rounds.

Ryan Babineau arrived at UCLA as part of a very talented recruiting class that included a few of the other players mentioned in this story such as Tim Murphy, Brandon Crawford and Jermaine Curtis. Babineau has always been hailed for his defensive skills behind the plate and his offensive potential at it. His bat hasn’t come around as quickly as some would like to see, but he shows at a patient eye with the ability to shut down the opposing running game.

Stanford has been somewhat of a surprise team this year, and much of their success can be attributed to Jason Castro, who carried the success he enjoyed last summer on the Cape into this spring. While he’s not the defensive stalwart that Babineau is (although he has thrown out 42 percent of opposing baserunners so far this spring), Castro’s bat figures to make a much bigger impact. A left-handed hitter, he already has six home runs while continuing to show the patient eye he exhibited last summer.

More bats

Infield teammates Brandon Crawford and Jermaine Curtis of UCLA as well Danny Espinosa and Shane Peterson of Long Beach State form two of the more intriguing tandems in the state. Cal senior second baseman Josh Satin is doing his best this spring to put himself and teammate David Cooper in the same conversation, while Ryan Babineau, as mentioned above, gives UCLA a third draft-eligible player that could receive early round interest.

Crawford’s athletic talent could allow him to go in the first round as long as he starts to heat up at the plate. Espinosa’s glove is special, but similar to Crawford, his bat has a few lingering question marks. Curtis is a solid all-around player with a line-drive bat that receives high marks for his character.

Cooper and Peterson are similar, professional-style left-handed hitters that make very good contact, show a disciplined eye, and have a fair amount of power. Cooper in particular has made a lot of noise this spring and will be in the mix for the early rounds. He currently has a .398 average and 11 home runs already on the young season, and he has hit everywhere he has played, with both wood and metal bats. Teammate Josh Satin, a senior second baseman, sports a .446 batting average and nine home runs, as he too has improved his draft status.

Unless a team at the next level intends to groom either Peterson or Cooper as an outfielder, there aren’t too many outfielders from the college level from across the nation, much less California, that are worthy of first or even early-round interest. Eric Thames of Pepperdine is one of the few, a name that has found itself in this column a few times recently. Thames may not have the highest upside since his arm plays best in left field yet his power may be more on par of a centerfielder, which may make him somewhat of a ‘tweener, but he has a great approach, and as long as his power continues to blossom (he already has seven doubles, six triples and six home runs this spring) he will continue to gain respect from observers.

There is plenty to get excited about from the prep outfield class, particularly from the Golden State. Aaron Hicks and Anthony Gose were already covered above as two-way talents. Isaac Galloway of Rancho Cucamonga has the natural athletic grace to make playing centerfield look far too easy for the rest of us. His easy swing and natural bat speed give him the potential to make a significant impact as a true five-tool player.

Fellow Aflac All-American Clark Murphy (Fallbrook) is a big, slugging first baseman that has played a little left field, whose power potential is going to allow him to also be in the mix for the early rounds. Fellow infielders Chris Amezquita (La Mirada), Ricky Oropesa (Rancho Cucamonga) and Cutter Dykstra (Thousand Oaks) have a variety of offensive tools, from Amezquita’s power to Dykstra’s speed. Amezquita has the highest upside of this trio with five-tool potential, while Dykstra brings a similar aggressive approach and tool-set that his father, Lenny did.

All in all you have a state that is absolutely loaded with talent, at every single position on the field, even more so than most years, as California has always been the biggest pipeline to supply talent to the big-leagues. That talent will be reflected early on draft day and beyond.

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.