Last year a pair of talented bats from Southern California high schools, Mike
Moustakas and Josh Vitters, gave the 2007 draft class a pair of defining,
potential impact players from the Golden State that was indicative of the
overall regional talent.
The talent didn’t stop with those two young men, as Matt Dominguez also was
drafted in the first round, while Nick Noonan, Ryan Dent and Travs d’Arnaud
were taken in the sandwich round. Mike Stanton, Freddie Freeman and Austin
Romine were all taken in round two, and the college ranks offered early round
picks such as Aaron Poreda, James Simmons, Wes Roemer, Grant Desme, Barry
Enright and Danny Worth.
Unsigned prep players Victor Sanchez and Kyle Blair have already made a strong
impact for the San Diego program, while shortstop Christian Colon has done the
same for Cal State Fullerton.
While this year there are several more promising high school players ready to
make the 2008 California class another one for the ages, its the college arms
at the very top of this year’s draft class that stands to define the 2008
draft, and that talent isn’t restricted to the perennially talent-rich region
of Southern California.
First Round Arms
Brian Matusz has been identified for several years now as a favorite to go among
the top two to three overall selections in this year’s draft. He was very well
known coming out of high school, and opted not to sign with the Angels as a
fourth-round pick, honoring his commitment to San Diego as part of a very
talented class. Matusz has the ideal size and durability of a project staff
ace, and the stuff to match, with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and a
nifty changeup that is not only his best pitch, but may just be the single best
pitch of all of the draft-eligible talent.
Fresno State right-hander Tanner Scheppers entered the spring without the
history and past results as Matusz, but with just as much interest after
throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s during fall ball. Built similar to Matusz with
tall and long proportions, Scheppers also profiles as a prototypical staff ace
given his power arsenal that also includes a nasty slider. Entering the spring
Scheppers was considered a candidate to go somewhere in the first round, and
after a terrific start he’s not likely to fall outside of the top 10 overall
picks.
Bouncing back South, Brett Hunter of Pepperdine also was making some noise last
fall after touching the upper-90s with his fastball. He’s spent much of his
college career, including last summer with Team USA, coming out of the bullpen
as a set-up man or closer, but opened this spring as the Waves’ Friday starter.
I noted in a previous Crack of the Bat column that I was impressed watching
Hunter’s velocity actually improve from the 94-95 range to the 96-97 range from
the first to the seventh inning, which should give him a chance to stick as a
starter as a pro. Unfortunately, forearm soreness has caused Hunter to be shut
down until later this month, possibly early May, so it will be interesting to
see how much that effects his draft stock.
Turning North again, Tyson Ross was also sidelined briefly due to injury, but
has already returned to the mound, and made one of his most impressive starts
last weekend shutting down Long Beach State as the Cal Bears swept the Dirtbags
to continue their extremely impressive start to the 2008 season. Ross doesn’t
have the stuff of Hunter or Scheppers, but he does have a well-rounded
three-pitch arsenal, throws strikes and knows how to pitch.
Lefty Tim Murphy of UCLA has the best curveball of this group, and pitches in
the 88-91 range with the ability to reach back for a little bit more on
occasion. He does seem to fall in love with his curve a little too much at
times, which may draw some unfair comparisons to Barry Zito. Murphy is built
more like former UCLA lefty David Huff, and like Huff can get knocked around a
little when he catches too much of the strike zone. So far, so good for Murphy
this year, who is one of the few bright spots on an otherwise disappointing
Bruins ballclub.
Looking at the high school pitching, Gerrit Cole from Santa Ana is clearly the
cream of the crop, not just in California but nationally. With a whip of an
arm, Cole easily approaches triple digits and mixes in one of the nastier
sliders of the class. His stuff has very good natural movement, making him that
much harder to hit, and he already shows a natural sense of pitching and
changing speeds. The UCLA recruit is considered somewhat of a tough sign, and
already is suspect to falling in the draft further than he should, a la Rick
Porcello a year ago.
Probably not in the mix for the first-round, but not that far off are prep
lefties Jarret Martin of Bakersfield and Brett Mooneyham of Merced. The two are
very similar in size and stuff, with prototypical builds to handle the rigors
of being a staff ace at any level while also having the stuff to match. Both
continue to improve in all aspects of the game.
A pair of righties help even out the prep talent from California. Big and
towering, Michael Tonkin of Palmdale may have one of the best sinking fastballs
in the nation, as that and his odd, questionable delivery makes him especially
hard to hit. Lakeside’s Miles Reagan continues to grow and improve his stuff,
as his fastball approaches the mid-90s with greater regularity.
Looking back to the college crop, the talent just outside of round one includes
a pair of talented pitching duos.
Senior right-hander Andrew Liebel has really stepped up this spring to front the
Long Beach staff, throwing in the 89-94 range with a very good curveball and
changeup. He has really increased his draft stock so far this spring with an
ERA below two and a 46 to six strikeout to walk ratio in 47 innings of work.
Teammate Vance Worley has had a promising power arm since his high school days,
and while he doesn’t miss as many bats as you would like to see for someone
with his stuff, that stuff is still going to give him plenty of chances to
succeed at the professional level.
UC Irvine righty Scott Gorgen is having one of the best seasons so far in the
country, with a 5-1 record and a microscopic 1.39 ERA. He and fellow rotation
mate Bryce Stowell are a big reason the Anteaters are 19-3 with a collective
2.12 ERA. Stowell is probably the better pro prospect, with better size and
pure stuff, as Gorgen’s pro potential may be somewhat limited given his sub-six
foot frame. But Gorgen’s results, 88-91 fastball and very good changeup are
likely going to draw the attention early from a team that places an emphasis on
polish and performance.
The college closers round out this group, represented by Long Beach State’s
Bryan Shaw, Cal’s Matt Gorgen (twin brother of UC Irvine’s Scott Gorgen) and
Kevin Castner of Cal Poly.
Shaw has the longest track record, with 19 saves under his belt already during
his college career, using a low-90s sinking fastball and improving slider to
record the bulk of his saves.
Matt Gorgen employs a fastball-cutter combo to get most of his outs, and he like
Shaw relies more on the movement of his pitches than the pure, sheer velocity.
Including the four saves he has recorded so far this year for the upstart Cal
Bears program, Gorgen has 15 saves during his collegiate career.
Castner is all about power, with an intimidating frame and presence and power
fastball that can approach triple digits. He has struggled to command the
strike zone as well as his secondary offerings, but continues to improve a
slider that could make him a very tough short reliever at the next level.
Castner is a draft-eligible sophomore after missing his first year in school
with a shoulder injury.
Two-way Talent
The aforementioned San Diego recruiting class that Matusz was a part of included
two-way star Josh Romanski, who figures to be groomed as a left-handed pitcher
as a pro, but made a bigger impact last summer with Team USA with his bat,
leading the team in batting with a .333 average. A very good all-around
athlete, San Diego’s pitching depth this spring has allowed them to use
Romanski as a mid-week starter while having him concentrate on his hitting (he
bats cleanup for the Toreros) and defense (centerfield) during weekend series.
Aaron Hicks of Long Beach is the first of several California preps that have
amazing tools and skills in all facets of the game. He showed off his talent on
the national stage at the Aflac All-American Classic last August, getting on
base a couple of times, swiping a couple of bags, playing the outfield, and
coming in the ninth in an attempt to close out the game. His tool set is
highlighted by his arm strength and his foot speed, as his arm allows him to
shine on the mound with a mid-90s fastball and hammer curveball, and also gives
him a cannon of an arm from the outfield. His speed allows him to track down
fly balls effortlessly while also proving to be a pest on the basepaths. His
switch-hitting bat may be the the final aspect of his game that will determine
which area a team will look for him to pursue upon entering professional
baseball
Bellflower’s Anthony Gose is a very similar prospect to Hicks, with very
good speed and a tremendously strong arm. He is more raw than Hicks, as his
velocity is best in shorter outings and his swing isn’t on the same level as
Hicks, but the talent is just as evident. Gose’s package is a little more
interesting in that he’s a left-hander, and generates velocity with such an
easy arm motion that lead scouts to believe that he is just starting to touch
on his endless potential.
Tyler Chatwood of Yucaipa is a little bit different of a two-way player, more of
a utility player in that he could play anywhere on the field. His versatility
and arm strength has led to an increased interest with his ability to catch,
and his athleticism and profile is somewhat similar to Florida State catcher
Buster Posey who has taken a career path similar to what many expect of
Chatwood. From playing the outfield to the infield, from behind to the plate to
on the mound Chatwood has done it all while maintaining a low-90s fastball as a
pitcher and a line drive bat as a hitter.
El Cajon’s Ryan O’Sullivan hopes to continue to follow in the footsteps of
his older brother Sean, first as an Aflac All-American and next onto the
professional level. With a strong arm, power potential and a hammer curveball,
Ryan has a very similar resume, and if he doesn’t follow his big brother as
early as this summer, he could be pulling double duty at San Diego State for a
few years.
Catching on
Any time you have an impact player at the catching position that could be taken
among the top five overall picks you automatically have a commodity that
increases the overall talent level of the draft. Left-handed slugger Kyle
Skipworth of Riverside represents that player this year, with impressive
offensive potential and improving defensive skills. He has drawn unfair
comparisons to Joe Mauer given his large yet athletic stature and lefty bat,
and has hit in front of large scouting contingents at some of the more
prominent national showcase events, including last summer’s Aflac All-American
Classic, where he clubbed a two-run home run to deep left-centerfield.
The early round talent drops off significantly after Skipworth, although there
are a pair of college backstops that could be taken in the early rounds.
Ryan Babineau arrived at UCLA as part of a very talented recruiting class that
included a few of the other players mentioned in this story such as Tim Murphy,
Brandon Crawford and Jermaine Curtis. Babineau has always been hailed for his
defensive skills behind the plate and his offensive potential at it. His bat
hasn’t come around as quickly as some would like to see, but he shows at a
patient eye with the ability to shut down the opposing running game.
Stanford has been somewhat of a surprise team this year, and much of their
success can be attributed to Jason Castro, who carried the success he enjoyed
last summer on the Cape into this spring. While he’s not the defensive stalwart
that Babineau is (although he has thrown out 42 percent of opposing baserunners
so far this spring), Castro’s bat figures to make a much bigger impact. A
left-handed hitter, he already has six home runs while continuing to show the
patient eye he exhibited last summer.
More bats
Infield teammates Brandon Crawford and Jermaine Curtis of UCLA as well Danny
Espinosa and Shane Peterson of Long Beach State form two of the more intriguing
tandems in the state. Cal senior second baseman Josh Satin is doing his best
this spring to put himself and teammate David Cooper in the same conversation,
while Ryan Babineau, as mentioned above, gives UCLA a third draft-eligible
player that could receive early round interest.
Crawford’s athletic talent could allow him to go in the first round as long as
he starts to heat up at the plate. Espinosa’s glove is special, but similar to
Crawford, his bat has a few lingering question marks. Curtis is a solid
all-around player with a line-drive bat that receives high marks for his
character.
Cooper and Peterson are similar, professional-style left-handed hitters that
make very good contact, show a disciplined eye, and have a fair amount of
power. Cooper in particular has made a lot of noise this spring and will be in
the mix for the early rounds. He currently has a .398 average and 11 home runs
already on the young season, and he has hit everywhere he has played, with both
wood and metal bats. Teammate Josh Satin, a senior second baseman, sports a
.446 batting average and nine home runs, as he too has improved his draft
status.
Unless a team at the next level intends to groom either Peterson or Cooper as an
outfielder, there aren’t too many outfielders from the college level from
across the nation, much less California, that are worthy of first or even
early-round interest. Eric Thames of Pepperdine is one of the few, a name that
has found itself in this column a few times recently. Thames may not have the
highest upside since his arm plays best in left field yet his power may be more
on par of a centerfielder, which may make him somewhat of a ‘tweener, but he
has a great approach, and as long as his power continues to blossom (he already
has seven doubles, six triples and six home runs this spring) he will continue
to gain respect from observers.
There is plenty to get excited about from the prep outfield class, particularly
from the Golden State. Aaron Hicks and Anthony Gose were already covered above
as two-way talents. Isaac Galloway of Rancho Cucamonga has the natural athletic
grace to make playing centerfield look far too easy for the rest of us. His
easy swing and natural bat speed give him the potential to make a significant
impact as a true five-tool player.
Fellow Aflac All-American Clark Murphy (Fallbrook) is a big, slugging first
baseman that has played a little left field, whose power potential is going to
allow him to also be in the mix for the early rounds. Fellow infielders Chris
Amezquita (La Mirada), Ricky Oropesa (Rancho Cucamonga) and Cutter Dykstra
(Thousand Oaks) have a variety of offensive tools, from Amezquita’s power to
Dykstra’s speed. Amezquita has the highest upside of this trio with five-tool
potential, while Dykstra brings a similar aggressive approach and tool-set that
his father, Lenny did.
All in all you have a state that is absolutely loaded with talent, at every
single position on the field, even more so than most years, as California has
always been the biggest pipeline to supply talent to the big-leagues. That
talent will be reflected early on draft day and beyond.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect
Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and
Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.