Crack of the Bat
by Patrick Ebert

2009 Draft Groupings

With the 2008 Major League Baseball season behind us and the hot-stove season just ahead of us, I thought I would take this time to identify some of the more interesting storylines involving related players and situations that we will be following between now and the 2009 draft.

I have covered the biggest strength of the 2009 draft, college pitching, in previous articles, and have chosen to target more specialized, individual groupings in this story.

Sinister Pair

In my mind, the most interesting storyline is the debate that involves the talents of a pair of high school left-handed pitchers: Spring, Texas’ Matthew Purke and Mission Viejo, California’s Tyler Matzek.

It’s hard to go wrong with either one, as you could make a very compelling argument for both of these young players. Purke slings the ball in the low-to-mid-90s, and also throws a wicked slider from a low three-quarters delivery that makes his pitches that much harder to pick up, while Matzek has similar velocity while throwing both a hard-breaking curveball and a nifty slider. Purke oozes with confidence and has plenty of room to add strength with long, wiry strong limbs, and Matzek is a little more well proportioned athlete hailed for picture-perfect mechanics.

Purke is currently rated number one by PG Crosschecker and on my own personal list, with Matzek checking in at number three. I think Purke profiles as more of the true power pitcher, with the demeanor to go along with his stuff and natural deception, but that isn’t said to take anything away from Matzek.

Both players at this point in time stand to be taken among the top 10 overall selections in next year’s draft, as these two at this point in time could rival the promise that Scott Kazmir and Adam Loewen held at a similar point in their careers as the 2002 draft approached.

Independent Aces

Two unsigned pitchers from the 2008 draft have decided to improve their prospective value by pitching in the American Association independent league.

Aaron Crow, the ninth overall pick last year of the Washington Nationals, will be following in the footsteps of his former teammate at Missouri, Max Scherzer, while pitching with the Fort Worth Cats.

Tanners Scheppers, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ second-round pick, will be playing for the Saint Paul Saints. The American Association schedule doesn’t even start until the month of May, meaning each pitcher will probably only have three to four opportunities to take the mound during game situations to prove their worth.

Scheppers has more to prove than Crow, as Scheppers fell in the draft after being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his shoulder. If he can show that he still has the arm strength to throw in the mid-to-upper 90s, while also reclaiming the bite on his curveball, he could find himself going in the top half of the first round, where he was projected to go last June before he was shut down.

For Crow it came down to money, as he and the Nationals were reportedly several hundred thousand dollars apart as negotiations broke down before the August 15 signing deadline. He was tied for the nation lead in wins with 13 as part of a perfect 13-0 season for the Tigers. His availability gives the ’09 draft class yet another power arm, an area next year’s draft class has no shortage of talent.

Tar Heel Dynamic Duo

Alex White matched Aaron Crow’s 13 wins as a sophomore for the Tar Heels, and Dustin Ackley recorded his second straight season with a batting average that exceeded .400. Both players stand to be among the top five to seven best available for next year’s draft.

Just take a peak at North Carolina’s 2009 schedule to get an idea of where a ton of scouts will be converging next spring. There is always an abundant wealth of talent in the ACC, but the Tar Heels in particular are going to generate a ton of interest.

White reportedly has looked strong during fall practices and scrimmages, and seems posied to have a very strong junior campaign in which he has a legitimate chance to be among the top three players selected in next year’s draft.

Ackley did not participate in fall ball, recovering from Tommy John surgery from over the summer. Expected to be ready to play in the spring, Ackley should see more time in the outfield, as his overall athleticism is somewhat wasted at first base. Although it doesn’t really matter where he plays, as it’s his bat that will allow him to be drafted in a similar position as White.

UNC Infielder Kyle Seager should benefit from the amount of attention that White and Ackley receive. A strong showing could allow Seager to be drafted earlier than currently projected, which is already pretty high.

Double Dilemma

One of the most interesting topics from year-to-year is the progression of the nation’s more talented two-way players and what they show during the spring leading up to the draft to sway observers into believing their worth is greater either on the mound or at the plate.

A great example of this happened last spring, in which Ethan Martin entered the year more well known for his prodigious power potential and arm strength as a third baseman, but became the Dodgers first round pick as a right-handed pitcher after consistently showing improved velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball.

Tyler Matzek and Alex White, as profiled above, are both gifted all-around athletes, and both could legitimately be drafted as hitters. With 99.9% certainty I can confidently say that isn’t going to happen given how special they could be on the mound, but crazier things have happened.

Mychel Givens and Keyvius Sampson both showed their two-way talents this past summer on a national stage. I think many expected that both would be followed entering the summer as true five-tool players that excelled at shortstop and in the outfield respectively.

However, when Givens and Sampson took the mound and easily produced fastballs that either sat in the mid-90s (Givens) or approached the mid-90s (Sampson), while also having the ability to snap off wicked breaking balls, I think those expectations changed.

Austin Maddox also showed his talents both on the mound and at the plate this past summer, and offers enough potential either way to keep his options open moving forward. I do believe his upside, in thanks to his arm strength and power potential, will cause him to continue to be pursued as a catcher, a position where players like Maddox are always in high demand.

Usually by the time a talented two-way star from college reaches their junior year, scouts have a pretty good idea of where a player is better suited moving forward. That’s not the case with Cal-Berkeley’s Blake Smith.

As a hitter, he has very good power potential, and finished second on Team USA last summer in batting, home runs and slugging, while his arm strength serves him very well in right field.

He also pitched for Team USA, not giving up an earned run in five appearances. Smith throws in the low-90s and touches the mid-90s to go along with a killer curve.

The Bears lost their three best hitters, two of their best starters and their closer last year via the draft, giving them plenty of options to determine how they want to use their versatile star player. Where and how he is used best over the spring may paint a better pictures as to where his future lies.

Mizzou Legacy

The University of Missouri has produced some very promising right-handed pitchers in recent years, and Kyle Gibson poised to follow in the footsteps of Aaron Crow (profiled above) and Max Scherzer.

While Crow and Scherzer were praised for their fastballs, Gibson’s bread and butter is a nasty slider that is nearly unhittable. The only problem with his slider is that he can fall a little too in love with it at times. He does throw his fastball in the low-90s, with many expecting him to add velocity as he fills out his tall and lanky frame. However, the pitch can straighten out at times, and he can get in trouble when he catches too much of the strike zone, which causes him to nibble and fall back on his slider.

His slider and stature makes him a very similar prospect to Brad Lidge. Gibson will be given every opportunity to succeed as a starter as a professional, but like Lidge it would not surprise me if he eventually settled in as a dynamic closer.

Vanderbilt Southpaws

Similar to Gibson, Mike Minor has followed some very talented lefties that have taken the mound for Tim Corbin and the Vanderbilt Commodores. David Price was Minor’s teammate his freshman year, and Price was Ryan Mullins’ teammate during Price’s freshman season. Mullins pitched on the same staff as Jeremy Sowers, who started the lefty legacy serving as Vandy’s ace from 2002-2004.

All four are distinctly different pitchers, although Minor’s fastball command and feel for pitching are probably the most similar to Sowers’ approach, although Minor has a more prototypical build and throws consistently harder.

His best pitch is his changeup, which is thrown with the same arm speed and angle as his fastball, giving him a lethal pitch to neutralize right-handed batters. He has thrown both a slider and a curveball, and is still trying to find which breaking ball works best for him. The development of that pitch could lead to a very promising pro career, and even without it he stands to be taken among the top seven to 12 players in next year’s draft.

Peach Preps

Georgia is never short on talent, but this year they have three players from the high school ranks that could go in the first round.

That group is highlighted by two-sport star Donovan Tate. Tate is the son of former Bullldogs star running back Lars Tate, who also enjoyed a brief career in the NFL. Donovan was blessed with similar athletic attributes, and also has continued his career as one of the nation’s most exciting running back recruits after briefly considering focusing on baseball full-time towards the end of this past summer.

His size and athleticism causes people to turn their heads when he steps onto a baseball field. Tate has game-changing speed, a very strong arm, and good bat speed that also gives him exciting power potential. He has the speed to play centerfield and the bat to hit in the middle of a batting order, and because of that is currently projected to be among the top five to 10 overall players available for the 2009 draft.

With a tall, skinny yet athletic build, somewhat of an exaggerated delivery and swing-and-miss stuff, Zach Wheeler reminds me of a young Ryan Madson. He showcases his skills very well over this past summer, and projects to go in the middle of the first round next June.

Luke Bailey rounds out the trio, and is as close to a five-tool catcher as you can find. His defensive prowess, arm strength, speed, hitting ability and power potential are all above average for the position, as he has the talent to creep up even further on draft boards next spring.

Closing Time

The ever increasing need for specialization has led to more and more teams taking college closers early in the draft hoping for a faster return on their investment.

Arizona’s Jason Stoffel and Jacksonville State’s Ben Tootle represent the two best college closers available for the ’09 draft.

Stoffel was one of the top prospects available for the 2006 draft, with a strong, sturdy build and a heavy, powerful fastball before he decided to honor his commitment to Arizona. He has enjoyed success out of the Wildcats bullpen since his freshman year, but will be in the spotlight by himself after former bullpen mate Daniel Schlereth was drafted in the first-round last year.

Tootle is more of an emerging prospect, who made the most of his opportunity on the Cape last summer to drastically improve his status. With a strong, chiseled build and powerful repertoire that includes a nasty slider and a fastball that approaches triple digits, Tootle is tailor-made for short relief.

Unsigned first-round pick Joshua Fields is a wildcard in this category, but many expect him to eventually sign with the Mariners.

Sophomore Surge

Draft-eligible sophomores always present somewhat of a wildcard to the next year’s draft class in that they have the added advantage of time on their side when it comes to negotiation. Because of this, such players typically are not drafted where their talent may suggest, and often wait until their junior year of eligibility until they do indeed begin their professional careers.

Tennessee outfielder Kentrail Davis and LSU shortstop D.J. LeMahieu are among the more talented sophomores available for the 2009 draft, and both are true sophomores, about to enter their second year with their respective teams.

Both were well known coming out of high school, participating in the 2006 Aflac All-American Classic. Davis is a pure hitter from the left-side of the plate that offers an exciting all-around offensive package. He hits the ball from gap-to-gap, has some home run power, a patient eye at the plate and enough speed to be considered a threat on the basepaths. Davis was Team USA’s best and most consistent hitter before leaving the team due to a wrist injury.

LeMahieu was a Cape Cod League all-star coming off of his successful freshman year, and has a line drive approach, frequently driving the ball the opposite way to right field. He shows very good range for a player his size (6’4”, 190), and should be given every opportunity to stick at the shortstop position, fitting the mold of the modern day shortstop similar to players such as Robin Yount, Cal Ripken Jr., Alex Rodriguez and fellow ’09 draft eligible shortstop Grant Green.

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.