A Long Look Ahead
Welcome to the dog days of winter. Being the sports fan that I am, although one that doesn’t pay too much attention to basketball, February is always a long month for me. College baseball’s universal starting date has delayed the start of the college game by a month, meaning fewer stories to follow at this time of year, although pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report within the next two weeks.
The showcase circuit season is already underway, with one scheduled to take place this weekend at Perfect Game’s headquarters in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Last year’s event was full of talented players in what was a very good year for talent in the upper Midwest.
I’ll talk more about the PG Indoor Showcase in next week’s column, and since I’ve received a few notes asking me how I think the 2008 draft will shake out, I thought I’d take a look at the drafting tendencies of the teams that own the top 10 picks in the 2008 draft. I readily admit that trying to predict the draft at this point in time may be fun but for the most part is a waste of time. However, we can always take a look at what teams, and more specifically, scouting directors have done which may give us a taste for what they may be looking to do come June.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
New management, new uniforms and a new direction are all in place in Tampa. The new management team has been in place for a few years now, and through the new team name and uniforms the organization will try to start fresh while trying to forget what has been a pretty awful start to the franchise.
Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes were dealt this off-season, which may seem like a curious move, given the young talent that was shipped out, but the organization clearly is placing a greater emphasis on character and team unity. The Rays are also starting to see more dividends cashed in on some of their later round picks, as for a while they seemed to be relying too heavily on the success of their first and second round selections to determine the future success of the team.
Acquiring Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano is a move Rays and Mets fans alike will never forget, while Jamie Shields and Carlos Pena stepped forward in 2007 to give the team some hope that things are starting to turn around.
Under the new direction of General Manager Andrew Friedman and Scouting Director R.J. Harrison, the team has placed a very strong emphasis on selecting the best player available and not drafting for need. This is an organization that clearly understands that the only way they’re going to be able to stop drafting at the tippy-top of the draft each and every year is to assemble the best collection of talent available.
This season that talent begins with Vanderbilt third basemen Pedro Alvarez, a player the Rays surely have seen plenty of since they drafted his Commodore teammate from a year ago, David Price. No player has been as big of a force as Alvarez has the past two years, and he projects to have the same kind of impact at the big-league level.
Sure, you can point to the presence of future third baseman Evan Longoria as a reason as to why the Rays may look elsewhere, but as I noted before, no team in this kind of situation can get too cute with their pick, and some scouts feel as though Alvarez may have to move to another position down the road anyway.
If the team decides to continue to stockpile pitching, a trio of college starters, Aaron Crow (Missouri), Brian Matusz (San Diego) and Brett Hunter (Pepperdine), would be the likely targets at this point in time. For now I’ll stick with Alvarez at number one.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
At least Pirates fans can claim they have the nicest stadium in all of baseball. After that, they don’t have much to brag about. There are bright spots in the system, but overall the talent level is lacking, as the organization has either been too cheap with their early first round picks or they’ve faced some hard luck, most notably injuries, with the players they have taken.
The Pirates are also undergoing a organizational facelift, with General Manager Neil Huntington placing a greater emphasis on scouting and player development. Former Tigers Scouting Director Greg Smith has been hired to fill the same position with the Pirates, but it remains to be seen if the team will continue to take a fiscally conservative approach to the draft after passing on some incredibly talented players the past five to seven years.
This is a team that needs to take the best player that is available to them. If the Rays take a different direction with the first overall pick, Alvarez should without a doubt be the pick.
However, after Alvarez, there is a lot of difference in opinion as to who the next best prospects are. And after taking a pair of college arms (Brad Lincoln and Daniel Moskos) the past two years, an area the team has not had a lot of luck with, the Pirates may be better off taking the best bat they can get their hands on.
That may be Eric Hosmer, a prep first baseman from Florida, although his signability most pose problems for the Pirates. Fellow Florida prep hitter Harold Martinez might also be in the mix, as could Georgia shortstop Tim Beckham. The college ranks have plenty of big bats to choose from, with Justin Smoak seeming like a good fit.
I’m going to project Beckham, who may help Pirates fans forget that the team passed on B.J. Upton in favor of Bryan Bullington with the first overall pick in 2002.
3. Kansas City Royals
Similar to the Rays, the Royals seem to be heading in the right direction. It didn’t take long for General Manager Dayton Moore to make a strong impression onto his peers, which wasn’t much of a surprise.
Unlike the Pirates, the Royals have made a splash on draft day each of the past three years dropping an incredible amount of money to sign potential impact stars such as Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar and Mike Moustakas. The team will have to budget accordingly due to the addition of one sandwich pick caused by the loss of free agent David Riske, so they may not go out of their way to select a player that will be a particularly difficult sign.
This year, given the presence of Gordon, Moustakas and the first-round pick from 2004, Billy Butler, my money is on the Royals turning their attention back to pitching. Missouri’s Aaron Crow seems to be a natural fit given his proximity to the big-league club, and he has the stuff and polish to soar through the minor leagues and make an impact within a couple of years. Missouri prep pitcher Tim Melville could be another option, even if he may pose some signability concerns similar to those of Rick Porcello from a year ago. San Diego lefty Brian Matusz has been mowing batters down since taking the hill for the Toreros, and Brett Hunter is a name to watch this spring.
4. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are one of the more unpredictable teams in baseball, although it seems as though meddlesome ownership plays a big part in the direction this team takes from year to year.
Andy McPhail was hired to change that, and he has immediately placed a greater emphasis on player development and has started to strip the team of aging, expensive players that don’t seem to do much good on a perennial losing ballclub while getting some very good young talent in return.
The selection and signing of Matt Wieters signaled that the organization no longer would take the conservative route in the draft, making a similar statement with fifth rounder Jake Arrieta. After a strong 2007 draft and the trade of Miguel Tejada and the impending Erik Bedard deal to Seattle, the team’s overall talent level has gotten significantly better in a short amount of time.
There is still a lot of work to be done, as more impact talent needs to be acquired, and the team could take any player and fill a perceived need, but I personally think Brian Matusz would be a perfect fit for the Orioles considering they were scouting a pair of college lefties, Daniel Moskos and Ross Detwiler, a year ago.
5. San Francisco Giants
General Manager Brian Sabean may be even less predictable than the Baltimore Orioles in recent years. While he hasn’t been shy about dealing prospects for proven talent while also losing draft picks to sign free agents, the Giants still have managed to procure a few, key impact players the past several years, most notably Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.
However, the overall talent level is lacking, and the team isn’t getting any younger. Barry Bonds moving on makes their lineup look considerably less imposing, and there aren’t too many bats on the cusp of making their mark at the big-league level.
Aaron Rowand was signed this off-season in an attempt to somewhat offset the loss of Bonds, and while they will lose their second round pick because of that signing, they will also gain a sandwich pick by losing Pedro Feliz.
While a big bat may seem to make the most sense (Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso) this is a team that has taken chances with pitchers and had a good deal of success getting those arms to the Major League level. Gerrit Cole may be a perfect fit for the Giants, and could eventually team with the aforementioned Cain and Lincecum to form one of the most dominating starting staffs in all of baseball.
6. Florida Marlins
By acquiring Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller the Marlins already have added two significantly talented young players to their team even if they had to deal two significantly talented players, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, to get them. More importantly to the Marlins is that they have greater payroll flexibility, with Maybin and Miller years away from getting a lot more pricey for a team that doesn’t have much money to spend.
Well, at least not this year. The Marlins have already gone for it all twice by complementing a talented, young ballclub with veteran talent, and the team may not be that far away from doing the same thing. Maybin, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willimgham and Jeremy Hermida form a very nice foundation for the everyday lineup, while the team has a ton of young arms past Miller, both already on the team and still on the way, to look forward to.
Because of that, the team has options with their pick. They took a hitter, Matt Dominguez, with their first pick a year ago, otherwise their focus has been more on pitchers, from both the high school and college levels, the past five years. The team is thin at first base and catcher, where players such as Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso and Kyle Skipworth would all make a ton of sense. Skipworth gets the nod.
7. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds clearly don’t want to be among the 10 worse teams in baseball for very long after surprising some people by signing free agent closer Francisco Cordero to an eye-popping contract. That move may prove to be very astute if their starting staff continues to progress, as they have the firepower in their lineup to score runs in bunches. However, there is also a high chance that the signing will come back to haunt them if the pieces don’t fall into place as they hope they will.
Signing Cordero also means the team lost their second round pick.
General Manager Wayne Krivsky has seemed to continue the desire for big tools that Jim Bowden started with the organization more than a decade ago. While it looks to me that the Reds should keep drafting pitchers as early and as often as possible, they have taken a hitter with their first pick the past three years, which followed a run in which the team took pitchers with their top pick four years in a row, with Homer Bailey as the only pitcher left from that run.
Overall Scouting Director Chris Buckley hasn’t shown that he has a ton of money to play with, but he hasn’t been restricted with his picks either. High profile power arms and toolsy bats as noted have been the teams primary focus, but it may be difficult for this team to pass on a college pitcher should one of Aaron Crow, Brian Matusz or Brett Hunter fall to them, or even prep pitcher Tim Melville. Hunter would mark the third college arm taken among the top seven picks.
8. Chicago White Sox
Like the Giants, the White Sox never pass on the opportunity to trade some of their top prospects for proven players. General Manager Ken Williams dealt centerfielder Chris Young to the Diamondbacks last off-season for Javier Vazquez, and this year they moved Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos and Ryan Sweeney for Nick Swisher. If those moves don’t pay immediate dividends and propel the White Sox to the top of the American League Central, the White Sox, only two years removed from a World Series Championship, may be forced to rebuild in a more dramatic fashion.
Doug Laumann has been re-appointed to serve as the team’s scouting director after serving the same role from 2001 to 2003 during a brief hiatus of long-time scouting director Duane Shaffer, who has since been fired. The organization hasn’t taken a high school player with their first-round pick 2001 when they took local product Kris Honel. The last three years they have taken college arms, and now are dealing with a system that has lost a ton of talent largely due to the aforementioned trades.
The majority of the talent the White Sox do still have in their system are pitchers. Finding an impact bat is rather difficult, and the overall athleticism of their prospect base is weak. Harold Martinez and Aaron Hicks may fit given those needs, although recent history tells us that a college player may be more likely, and one of the pitchers or first basemen mentioned above may be a good fit. Justin Smoak could be a perfect match, particularly since Jim Thome may be on the tail-end of his career.
Replacing some of their lost talent will be more difficult after they lost their second round pick in signing set-up man Scott Linebrink.
9. Washington Nationals
General Manager Jim Bowden brought in Mike Rizzo from the Diamondbacks last year to serve as his assistant with an eye on baseball operations. He will assist Scouting Director Dana Brown to assemble a strong cast of talent to make sure the future of the Nationals organization doesn’t find themselves perennially drafting among the top five to 10 teams.
He made a strong impression a year ago, signing a few risky players, such as Jack McGeary, to creative contracts, while making sure he got all of his extra, early selections in the fold. Rizzo has never been afraid to deal with players that have fallen due to signability issues dating back to his time spent with the Diamondbacks, which may make the Nationals a candidate to take a stab at players such as Eric Hosmer or Tim Melville.
Rizzo hasn’t shown a real strong drafting preference, as he takes a mix of high school and college players, hitters and pitchers. The organization could use a couple of bona-fide impact bats, which may make a player like Hosmer that much more appealing.
10. Houston Astros
The Astros faced the Chicago White Sox in the 2005 World Series, and since then both teams have been desparately trying to prove that they haven’t fallen off as far as their 2007 records indicate. Both teams made among the more bold and risky trades of the off-season, with the Astros acquiring notable players such as Miguel Tejada, Kazuo Matsui and Jose Valverde.
And like the White Sox, the already thin Astros system got a lot worse after moving some of their more talented players to acquire the players mentioned above. They haven’t helped themselves by losing early picks by signing pricey free agents while not signing the early picks that they do select (their third and fourth round picks from a year ago went unsigned). Ownership has been rumored to be meddlesome, and their once proud tradition procuring talent from Venezuela has all but disappeared.
They could receive a modest boost should Trever Miller end up signing with another team, which would net the Astros a sandwich pick. New General Manager Ed Wade and Scouting Director Bobby Heck will be put to the task of supplying the organization with a much needed breath of new talent. Look for Heck to instill the “best player available” approach after the organization has taken a series of interesting picks over the past five to 10 years, that for the most part, haven’t panned out. The best player available at this point in time may very well be a prep player such as Tim Melville, Harold Martinez, Aaron Hicks or Bubba Meyer.
I’ll go with Martinez, who Heck has seen plenty of times after serving as the Brewers East Coast crosschecker.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.