Worst to First Revisited
Last February I broke down the 10 worst teams from the 2006 season in an attempt to identify which team or teams could enjoy a surge in the 2007 standings to follow the footsteps of the Detroit Tigers from the year before.
This season three of the 10 worst teams from 2006 (Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies) made the playoffs, with one other team falling two games shy of doing so (Brewers).
The other six teams (Devil Rays, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Pirates, Royals) continued to struggle during the regular season, and once again finished among the 10 worst teams.
I wanted to revisit that two-part story to draw in parallels of the things that went right for those teams that allowed them to enjoy such a dramatic and successful turnaround season.
Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86 in 2006, 90-72 in 2007)
“To complement a young and potentially potent lineup, the team now has four proven starters that have tossed 200 innings each of the past three seasons.”
The Diamondbacks rewarded me for giving them the best chance to enjoy a turnaround season by finishing as the best team in the entire National League, even ahead of the New York Mets, who many had pegged as the favorite to represent the NL in the World Series.
While they didn’t have one of those four proven pitchers that had tossed 200 innings the previous three seasons (Randy Johnson), the other three (Brandon Webb, Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez) were rock solid, with Davis missing the 200 inning mark by less than eight innings. Their success allowed the bullpen to be equally successful, highlighted by a break-out season by closer Jose Valverde, who led the National League in saves with 47.
But it was the young lineup that drew most of the national attention, with many calling this a team full of no-namers. If you enjoy following prospects at the high school, college and minor league levels, the everyday players were far from unknowns, with three former first-round picks among the regulars, including one player that was selected first overall (Justin Upton).
One big concern for the D-Backs moving forward is the fact that the 2007 squad scored fewer runs overall (712) than the pitching staff gave up (732), which usually is not a recipe for a successful team. That means a lot of good fortune went into their impressive 90-72 record, and fortunately for them their positional talent overall didn’t hit anywhere near what they’re capable of.
Chicago Cubs (66-96 in 2006, 85-77 in 2007)
“You have to do more than spend a lot of money to convince me that you’re ready to make a 25-game improvement from one year to the next.”
This is the comment I made when guesstimating the Cubs chances to turn things around in 2007 when stacked up against the other worst 10 teams from 2006. No, the Cubs didn’t win 25 more games, but they did win 19 more games, good enough to take control of a very weak NL Central division.
The best thing the Cubs did was to not count on Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in their off-season plans from a year ago as they had done since their National League Championship series appearance in 2003. Last offseason they went out and signed Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis to complement homegrown starters Carlos Zambrano and Rich Hill. The bullpen remained solid.
And there’s no reason to believe they can’t continue their success from this past year, with most of their stars locked up to multi-year deals. However, how much better can they get with the talent on their current roster? Outside of Felix Pie and Geovany Soto, this team is made up predominantly with veteran talent, meaning you most likely know what you’re going to get.
Of course they could go out and spend another $300 million this offseason, especially if the rumors persist that they intend to jump in the market for Alex Rodriguez should he opt out of his current contract. While there is no reason to expect the Cubs to fall off substantially in 2008, they do have to look over their shoulders to their division mates to the North, the Milwaukee Brewers, who have an extremely young team that has nowhere to go but up.
Colorado Rockies (76-86 in 2006, 90-73 in 2007)
“It’s hard not to like the moves the Rockies are making these days, and they aren’t that far away from being a legitimate contender in the NL West.”
It turns out that the Rockies were months away from contention. I find it interesting that the D-Backs and Rockies finished the 2006 season with almost the same exact record, finished the 2007 with nearly the same record and found themselves battling one another in the National League Championship series.
The Rockies have quietly been adding a tremendous amount of high impact talent from within, through both the draft and on the international free agent market. The everyday lineup that carried the Rockies to an improbable finish into the postseason boasted six players procured entirely from within.
And this is a team that lost two of their best starters, Aaron Cook and Jason Hirsch, to injury in mid-August. Former first-round pick Jeff Francis has picked up the load, as he along with rookie Ubaldo Jimenez carried the staff into the playoffs. Add Taylor Buccholz into the mix, who spent the year in the bullpen, Franklin Morales and the second overall pick from the 2006 draft, Greg Reynolds, and you have three more talented potential starters that the Rockies may be counting on next year to help continue their upstart success.
Big things are also expected from infielder Ian Stewart and catcher Chris Iannetta, who could push the number of homegrown positional players to seven as early as next year. In addition, their first-round pick from this past year, Casey Weathers, isn’t expected to spend much time in the minors. I find it safe to say that the Rockies success this year was no fluke, something the National League West will have to contend with over the next several years.
Milwaukee Brewers (75-87 in 2006, 83-79 in 2007)
“A healthy Ben Sheets and a lineup full of young stars ready to breakout as well as more to come could mean big things for the Brewers in 2007.”
Well, the Brewers got a half season of a healthy Ben Sheets, who made the All-Star squad, and their young, talented lineup led the majors in home runs. When Sheets went down after the All-Star break the entire team seemed to fall apart and lost a big lead over the Cubs. The team rebounded well in September, but not well enough to reclaim the division lead.
Many people pointed to the team’s youth as being a big part of the problem for the Brewers collapse, but in reality it wasn’t the young players that failed the team, it was the veterans such as Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano and Bill Hall.
Prince Fielder became the youngest player ever to hit 50 home runs, while Ryan Braun’s rookie year was one of the best in history. Corey Hart quietly had a very big year, and J.J. Hardy will be counted on to pick up where he left off after an impressive first half of the season.
Similar to the Cubs entering this past season, the Brewers may be better off relying less on the success of their oft-injured staff ace, Ben Sheets. The bullpen needs vast improvement, but otherwise few teams have the quality and quantity of young talent that the Brewers do, which should make them a fixture atop the NL Central for the next several years.
The Others
So what is in store for the six teams that didn’t enjoy a dramatic, turnaround season? And with the four teams profiled above that are no longer among the 10 worst teams in baseball, is there hope for the four teams that took their place?
As I noted in last week’s column, the Devil Rays will pick first once again next year and will have an excellent opportunity to add another potential piece to the puzzle. While few have questioned the bats the Devil Rays have developed, and continue to develop, it is the pitching that will be key to their future success. Jamie Shields stepped up to give the team a legitimate number two starter behind ace Scott Kazmir, and there are a ton more promising arms creeping their way closer and closer to the big leagues.
The Pirates appear to be a mess, and once again they are going in a different direction after saying goodbye to General Manager David Littlefield, whom many thought would put the Pirates in the right direction. Notable draft busts and injuries has thinned the talent base, with few immediate impact players to point to as a reason for hope in the next year or two. Ending their streak of consecutive losing seasons, which dates back to 1992, isn’t likely to happen in 2008.
The Royals appear to be headed in the right direction despite not proving it in the standings this past year. They may not have the potential star power and each and every position that the Devil Rays do, and they have more established pitching in place right now with the emergence of Brian Bannister and the return to form of Zack Greinke. Also similar to the Devil Rays, the Royals biggest obstacle may be the opposing talent in the division in which they play.
Similar to the Pirates, the Orioles appear to be a mess. They often approach the off-season as if they just missed the postseason, spending money at will. The O’s won’t be ready for the playoffs until their overall talent base catches up with their spending. The pitching could be there if they find a way to keep their arms healthy, but outside of Nick Markakis, the team doesn’t have many, if any, sluggers under the age of 30 worth getting excited about.
I gave the Giants the second best chance among the 10 worst teams from a year ago to turn their season around this year, largely because of Barry Bonds and Brian Sabean’s ability to seemingly make the most out of not much. Ending the Bonds era in San Francisco may be a wise move for the Giants, who after three consecutive seasons among the 10 worst teams in baseball need to focus on improving the team for the future and not just for next year.
You have to feel bad for the Marlins, who desperately need a new stadium, if not a new location given their pitiful attendance. There is plenty of talent worth getting excited about, with a lot more on the way, but it is going to be very difficult to orchestrate that talent to be together at once to make a serious run for the postseason. Their best chance was two short years ago, and while they made some extremely shrewd trades to pick up quite a few pieces for the future, there are just far too many factors working against the organization as a whole.
Of any of the teams listed above, the Reds have the best chance to make the biggest turnaround in the shortest amount of time. Minor league phenom Jay Bruce could make the big league team out of spring training, while Joey Votto is another young slugger to look forward to. The Big Red Machine is complemented by some talented young arms, something they have been lacking for several years, and they play in the weakest division in baseball.
I was shocked to see the White Sox record when I checked about mid-season, not realizing how bad things got for the Pale Hose this past season. The biggest test the White Sox will face, only two years removed from a World Series Championship, is whether or not to build onto their current, veteran talent base or to start from scratch by accumulating more talent from within through the draft and trades. Obviously complementing their current roster will get them more places, faster, but in the long run they may be better off stripping down now.
I must admit, I thought the Nationals were poised to be the worst team in all of baseball, and while their 73-89 record was nothing to get excited about, they certainly exceeded expectations. How they exceeded expectations I’m not exactly sure of, as the organization is still in need of more impact talent, but there are several key pieces in place, highlighted by a very solid bullpen.
Like the White Sox, the Astros are only two years removed from the World Series. Unlike the White Sox, the Astros really don’t have much talent at the big league level to complement in an attempt to turn the organization around quickly. There is some star power in Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, and one young star in Hunter Pence, but the front office is going through a facelift that adds to the uncertainty of the future of the organization. Craig Biggio appears to be calling his Hall of Fame career quits at a good time.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.