Devil Rays to pick first, again

The 2008 draft will mark the second consecutive year that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays will own the first overall selection, the fourth time they will have the first overall pick in their brief existence.

In fact, the Royals were one game away from owning the second overall selection for the second consecutive year, but the Pirates jumped “ahead” of the Royals the final weekend of the year, finishing the season with a four game losing streak.

Here is the raw draft order with the completion of the regular season (winning percentage in parenthesis, tie-breakers awarded to the team that finished with the worse record the previous year):

1.  Devil Rays (.407)

2.  Pirates (.420)

3   Royals (.426)

4.  Orioles (.426)

5.  Giants (.438)

6.  Marlins (.438)

7.  Reds (.444)

8.  White Sox (.444)

9.  Nationals (.451)

10.  Astros (.451)

11.  Rangers (.463)

12.  Athletics (.469)

13.  Cardinals (.481)

14.  Twins (.488)

15.  Dodgers (.506)

16.  Brewers (.512)

17.  Blue Jays (.512)

18.  Braves (.519)

19.  Cubs (.525)

20.  Mariners (.543)

21.  Tigers (.543)

22.  Mets (.543)

23.  Padres (.546)

24.  Phillies (.549)

25.  Rockies (.552)

26.  Diamondbacks (.556)

27.  Angels (.580)

28.  Yankees (.580)

29.  Indians (.593)

30.  Red Sox (.593)

The National League West champion Arizona Diamondbacks had the biggest jump in the overall standings, rising up 17 spots from 2006 to 2007.

The Indians, who suffered one of the biggest drops in the draft order a year ago, enjoyed a big jump of their own, going from 13 to 29.

The Cubs enjoyed an equally large jump, moving from the third overall pick to the 19^th.  In addition to the Cubs, two other teams that picked among the top 10 picks in the 2007 draft (Rockies, Diamondbacks) made the playoffs at the end of the 2007 season.  One other team, the Brewers, also managed to make a significant jump (nine spots) and missed the playoffs by finishing two games behind the Cubs.

Suffering the biggest drop by far were the Chicago White Sox, only two years removed from their World Series Championship, as they dropped from the sixth best team a year ago to the eighth worst.

Joining the Devil Rays, Pirates and Royals by assuming their usual spots in the top 10 are the Orioles, Nationals and Giants.  The Royals have been picking in the top 10 since 2004, while the Pirates, Orioles and Giants have been doing so since 2005.

The Devil Rays have never picked outside of the top 10, at least not since their draft order has been based on their play on the field (the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks selected at the end of the first round for two years between the time that their expansion franchise was announced and when they actually began play in 1998).

Show me the money

With no changes that would effect the financial landscape on the plate for the 2008 draft, money of course is going to continue to dictate who goes where next June, just as it did last year and just as it has for pretty much the history of the draft.  The only thing that will ever really help solve that problem, if you even view it as a problem, is if Major League Baseball institutes some kind of draft slotting system in which the pre-determined slot values that the commissioner’s office comes up with are mandated, not recommended.

Most of the teams follow those recommended slot values, but the handful of teams that are known to hand out big money to players that look to break the bank before they even begin their professional careers are the ones that skew the entire system.  While this troubles quite a few fans who want to see a fair system in which the worst teams have the opportunity to not only select, but also sign the best players, the bottom line is that these teams do still have the opportunity to select the players that are perceived to be the best.  The ones that choose to spend the money necessary on the top talent typically are the ones that have the better chance of going from worst to first so to speak by adding impact talent into their respective systems.

Of course, you can’t blame the Devil Rays for not spending big money on their seemingly endless collection of early draft picks.

A few changes left

As part of the amended Collective Bargaining Agreement from a year ago, the 2007 draft saw several radical changes, particularly the institution of the August 15 signing date.  One of those changes did not take place yet, and is going to take effect this offseason.

Last year saw a change in how teams that lost and signed Type B free agents, in that teams that signed them no longer lost any picks while teams that lost them gained a supplemental first round selection.

This year MLB will re-classify what determines a Type A and Type B free agent.  Type A free agents used to represent the top 30 percent of a certain position, with Type B free agents representing the top 31-50 percent of that position.  This year the top 20 percent of players at any given position will be classified as as Type A free agents, while the top 21-40 percent of players will be Type B free agents.  In theory, this will reduce the number of compensation picks by 20 percent.

In my mind that change is a year late, as we had to endure and witness a sandwich round from a year ago that went 34 picks deep, more than the 30 picks of any normal round.

I still think that sandwich round is too long, as awarding teams that lose a Type B free agent with a supplemental first round pick only stretches out the amount of time teams like the Devil Rays, Pirates and Royals have between their first and second overall selections, which really doesn’t accomplish what the draft is instituted to do:  To give the worst teams the best chances to get the best talent.

It’s about the talent

Regardless of who picks where and the financial ramifications, the talent ultimately is what drives the interest in the draft.

Pedro Alvarez has been penciled in as the favorite to go first overall in the 2008 draft since his sensational freshman year at Vanderbilt.  A left-handed slugging third baseman, Alvarez is a natural run producer that has hit 40 home runs in two years at Vandy, and nine more in two summers with Team USA, hitting to the tune of .358.

Alvarez’ teammate from a year ago, David Price, was also considered the favorite to go first overall at this time last year, and he was indeed selected first by the Devil Rays this past year.  We all know that the projected favorite to go first overall doesn’t always get that honor, and the Devil Rays do look particularly stocked at nearly every position on the field, which may prompt them to continue to pursue pitching.

San Diego ’s Brian Matusz and Missouri ’s Aaron Crow are the favorites to be among the first pitchers taken.  Matusz, a lefty, has an arsenal and approach made for missing bats, while Crow improved his draft status as a prospect significantly this past summer after leading the Cape Cod League in ERA by showing pinpoint control of his mid-90s fastball.

The first overall pick is usually restricted to college players and high school positional players, as the draft has never seen a prep righty selected first overall.  That could change next year as Tim Melville has been showing an uncanny blend of size, stuff and pitching savvy that scouts may not have seen since Josh Beckett.  Another prep player named Tim, Tim Beckham, a shortstop, is probably the only other high school player at this point in time that has a legitimate shot of going first overall, displaying a similar natural sense for the game as Melville with five-tool potential.

Of course, as we saw with Mike Moustakas this past year, the high school ranks offer more surprises between now and next June, as you never know who might improve their status significantly over the next eight months.

Scouts are already questioning the talent that is available at the top, but seem to agree that the overall depth is sound.  There are plenty of candidates from both levels to answer a lot of questions that linger to solidify their status as legitimate early picks.

Right now the college depth is deep with first basemen and corner outfielders.  Justin Smoak and Yonder Alonso could both be selected in the top 10 for their proven bats, even though it is rare to see one, much less two first basemen selected so early.  Allan Dykstra, Brett Wallace, Dennis Raben and Roger Kieschnick also have a proven track record of driving in a ton of runs, while Shane Peterson and David Cooper have two of the smoothest swings around, and could enjoy a substantial jump if their power blossoms.

Keep an eye on James Darnell, a third baseman or corner outfield prospect whose raw power potential rivals Kyle Russell, who along with Jordan Danks returns to Texas to offer Big 12 opponents a formidable one-two punch in the Longhorns lineup.

More questions arise from the infield prospects available from the college ranks, as there isn’t that one player who is a no-brainer across the board.  David Adams has a great bat but hasn’t developed much power yet.  Gordon Beckham has exciting power and enough range to stick at shortstop but scouts don’t know how well he’ll hit overall.  Brandon Crawford hasn’t shown that he can hit with a wood bat in two summers with Team USA and the Cape Cod League.  Conor Gillaspie has a limited ceiling, Jemile Weeks is coming off of an injury-riddled year, Danny Espinosa needs to show a more consistent bat while Reese Havens, Ryan Flaherty and Logan Forsythe are good but not great overall infielders.

Questions continue to loom for the college pitchers.  Jacob Thompson and Tyson Ross have enjoyed similar success at the college level, but neither have the pure stuff you look for from an early pick.  Lance Lynn, Brett Jacobson and Shooter Hunt have the size and stuff scouts desire, but lack consistency.  Aaron Shafer and Bryce Stowell have the size and potential stuff to factor into the first round, but need to prove themselves once again next spring.  Scott Green missed the entire 2006 season due to Tommy John surgery, but he too has the combination of size and stuff scouts desire.  Lefty Christian Friedrich has the fewest questions to answer other than the success he has enjoyed against opponents pitching for Eastern Kentucky in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Brett Hunter could give the starting crop another promising arm if he continues to take the ball once a week for Pepperdine.  Otherwise he along with seniors Cole St. Clair and Joshua Fields as well as Cody Satterwhite, Ryan Perry and Luke Burnett give the 2008 several short inning relievers worth looking forward to.

Moving back to the high school ranks, pitching continues to highlight the prep class, with a series of arms that seem to have the complete package of size and stuff.  Several pitchers at the Aflac All-American Classic proved that they were more than just hurlers throwing as hard as they could by showing they grasped the importance of changing speeds and commanding the strike zone.

After Melville, take your pick from a group of pitchers that include fellow right-handers Gerrit Cole, Alex Meyer, Michael Palazzone, Sonny Gray, Taylor Jungmann, B.J. Hermsen, Quinton Miller and Jack Armstrong.

Hard throwing southpaws will also be plentiful, represented by Brett DeVall, Scott Silverstein, Nick Maronde, Robbie Ross, Kyle Lobstein, Jarrett Martin, Walker Kelly and Austin Wright.

Hitters Eric Hosmer and Harold Martinez highlight the positional players, both with easy swings that have allowed them to be considered near-locks to be natural run producers at the professional level.  Ethan Martin, Chris Amezquita, Destin Hood and Clark Murphy bring some serious thunder in their bats, and all could be in the mix for the first two to three rounds of the draft.

Catcher Kyle Skipworth almost deserves his own category as a catching prospect with a lot of traits similar to Minnesota Twins star Joe Mauer.  While Skipworth doesn’t have Mauer’s natural and freakish all-around athleticism, he is a tall and strong left-handed slugger with solid defensive prowess behind the dish.

Isaac Galloway and Xavier Avery are two of the most coveted pure athletes from next year’s class.  Galloway has been impressing scouts with his five-tool talents for several years, while Avery’s blinding speed may make it difficult to sway him away from the gridiron.  Wesley Freeman deserves to be a part of the natural all-around athlete conversation, while Robbie Grossman draws praise for his all-out hustle and approach to the game.

Casey Kelly, Cutter Dykstra, Andy Burns and Rolando Gomez give the prep class an impressive group of middle infield prospects after Beckham.

The group of two-way stars starts with Aaron Hicks, who could be an extremely exciting prospect as either a five-tool outfielder or as a flame-throwing righty.  Ryan O’Sullivan follows in his older brother Sean’s footsteps for his ability as both as a pitcher and as a hitter, while the sky is the limit as both of a left-handed pitcher and left-handed slugger for Kyle Long, the son of NFL Hall of Fame defensive lineman Howie.

Of course there are a lot of names not mentioned here, as this brief overview only serves as a snapshot of the names we are going to grow accustomed to hearing more and more about as we approach next spring and the draft that follows.

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA .  Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.