Rookie for the Ages

I’ve read quite a few columns recently arguing the merits of the Colorado Rockies Troy Tulowitzki versus those of Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers for National League Rookie of the Year honors.  You can’t go wrong with either one, as they both have contributed a considerable amount of offense so early in their career after being drafted within two picks of one another in the 2005 draft.

Tulowitzki clearly gets the nod defensively, a rock in theRockies infield, and among the best shortstops in the game already in his young career.  Braun has a lot to learn at the hot corner, and has been frequently replaced late in ballgames that the Brewers are comfortably leading for the sure-handed Craig Counsell.

However, Ryan Braun’s offensive numbers are not only superior to Tulowitzki’s, they stand to be legendary.  Let’s look at them quickly (stats as of games played through September 27):

Braun:

.325/.370/.639 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage)

24 doubles, 6 triples, 34 home runs, 95 RBI, 281 total bases in 440 at-bats

Tulowitzki:

.292/.361/.475

31 doubles, 4 triples, 23 home runs, 94 RBI, 280 total bases in 590 at-bats

We’re already talking about a difference of 150 at-bats and over 40 games played.  One could try to argue that Tulowitzki is more valuable for having played the entire season, but I wouldn’t buy it given Braun’s statistical dominance at the plate.

Braun’s power numbers puts him in company with some of the best and most memorable Rookie of the Year award winners that includes Albert Pujols, Mike Piazza, Mark McGwire, Fred Lynn, Willie McCovey and Frank Robinson.

Braun’s .639 slugging percentage would be second to only Willie McCovey’s .656 mark set in 1959, although it should be noted that McCovey didn’t qualify for the batting (or slugging) title since he had only 192 at-bats.

Braun’s slugging percentage in his first year is better than those of a couple of legendary sluggers that pre-date the Rookie of the Year award:  Ted Williams (.609 in 1939) and Joe DiMaggio (.576 in 1936).

Braun’s on-base plus slugging (OPS) of 1.009 would be the fourth best mark of all-time among first year players that qualified for the batting title, behind only Williams (1.045), George Watkins (1.036 in 1930) and Pujols (1.013 in 2001).

If Braun had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, he would currently be first in slugging among all big-leaguers, including New York Yankees star Alex Rodriguez, and his OPS would be tied for seventh-best with Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday.

Braun’s counting stats (RBI, runs, hits, etc.) won’t be up there among the all-time rookie leaders since he wasn’t called up until May 25th, and as noted, he probably won’t have enough plate appearances to be eligible for the batting title.  However, his power percentages, which of course gauge a player’s overall effectiveness, are among the best of all-time.

Of course I may sound like a homer as a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers, but giving Troy Tulowitzki the edge in the NL Rookie of the Year race because of his glove over Braun’s historical offensive production doesn’t add up to me.

Senior Stoppers

Prospect followers are already looking ahead to the 2008 draft, and two names to keep an eye on that entered the spring of 2007 as possible first-round picks, Cole St. Clair of Rice and Joshua Fields of Georgia, have returned to school for their senior year of eligibility.

St. Clair suffered a shoulder injury lifting weights before the 2007 college season began, which caused him to miss the first two months of the season.  As Rice’s closer, teams didn’t get as many opportunities to see him pitch, and despite regaining his velocity late in the spring (low-to-mid-90s), he fell to the seventh round where the Indians didn’t have much of a chance to persuade him to begin his professional career.

Fields on the other hand had a poor season.  Coming off of a sensational summer in which he was named the Cape Cod League’s top relief pitcher in 2006, Fields velocity dipped as did the command of his potentially over-powering fastball-slider arsenal.  He still was drafted in the second round by the Braves, but he too has opted to return to school in an effort to improve his draft stock next June.

There’s a chance that St. Clair may be used as a starter next spring for Rice, despite having 22 career saves in three seasons for the Owls.  At 6’5”, 225 pounds, he has great size for a left-handed pitcher, and a legitimate three-pitch repertoire despite not having to use his changeup much coming out of the bullpen.  The Owls must find a way to replace the cumulative 20-2 record of Joe Savery and Ryne Tacker, who were drafted and signed by the Phillies and A’s respectively, and St. Clair may be part of that answer.

Wherever St. Clair ends up, he’s sure to continue his effectiveness.  In addition to his 22 career saves, he has a 9-2 record and 2.29 career ERA, including two sub-2.00 ERA seasons during his sophomore and junior seasons.  With a competitive and aggressive approach on the mound, he could move quickly as a short reliever.

Fields on the other hand will need to return to form to allow and find what made him so successful during the 2006 season, both at Georgia , when he posted a 1.80 ERA with 15 saves, and on the Cape (2.55 ERA, 13 saves).  His short and slight build is already under scrutiny, and while he has the talent to become a first-round pick next June, it may be difficult for him to improve his draft standing from this past season.

In Fields’ defense, the Georgia Bulldogs overall suffered a huge set-back from 2006 when they went 47-23, which included an appearance in the College World Series, by going 23-33 in 2007, which gave him fewer save opportunities.  The 2007 season started the way the 2006 season ended, with a loss to Oregon State .  The first game of the 2007 season included a one-inning appearance by Fields in which he gave up five earned runs, and later in the non-conference schedule he allowed another three innings in yet another one inning appearance, this time to Western Carolina.  If you remove those two rough outings from his stat line he posted a 2.73 ERA during his other 24 appearances, which included the bulk of the always difficult SEC schedule.

Kentucky Correction

A friendly reader has informed me that Ian Tomkins, mentioned last week as a Kentucky recruit, is now at Wake Forest .

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA .  Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.