Crack of the Bat
by Patrick Ebert

Draft Projection

The draft is less than a week away, and several notable players that were drafted last year have signed with their controlling teams (Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks, Jordan Walden, Angels, Matt Latos, Padres) just before the draft and follow signing deadline (the last year of the process, although technically Scherzer was not a DFE), making the talent pool more clear to determine who will and who won’t be available.

 

As I have been talking about the past couple of weeks, so many factors play into where certain players are drafted, most notably the money involved, as talent doesn’t always dictate what players are taken at what spots.  Because of that, there may be a few notable names left off the list below as I try to predict what players the teams in the first round will select.  I will touch on those players below.

 

Also keep in mind that teams rarely draft for an immediate need.  Teams may lean towards a pitcher or a hitter based on system-wide strengths and weaknesses.

 

1.  Tampa Bay Devil Rays – David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt

Price has been the favorite for the first overall pick for nearly a year, and the Devil Rays have been scouting Price hard all spring.  Matt Wieters is also a possibility here, but the opportunity to select a potential staff ace is too great to pass up.

 

2.  Kansas City Royals – Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (NJ)

As often as Price is associated with the D-Rays, Porcello is linked to the Royals just as often.  Money has not been an object the past two years for the Royals, and they know they only way to stop being among the regulars at the top of the draft each and every year is to select the best players available.

 

3.  Chicago Cubs – Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (CA)

Matt Wieters could be the choice here, but the Cubs have been all over Vitters the past couple of months, who is widely regarded as the best all-around hitter available for this year’s draft.  Jarrod Parker could go this early, but the Cubs reportedly want an impact bat.

 

4.  Pittsburgh Pirates – Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson

Among the early selections, this is the hardest pick to predict.  The Pirates are very high on Vitters, and would undoubtedly pluck him here should he be available.  They would prefer a big bat, but probably aren’t going to get involved with any of the pricier ones such as Wieters or Mike Moustakas.  They have been showing a lot of interest in Moskos, despite his recent struggles, and don’t be surprised to see a name typically not associated with the top four picks here (I’ll toss out Moustakas’ high school teammate, Matt Dominguez as a possibility).

 

5.  Baltimore Orioles – Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State

The Orioles, despite reports of them looking to make a big splash, which means spending a lot of money, have been high on Detwiler for several months now, and may also take Daniel Moskos should he be available.

 

6.  Washington Nationals – Mike Moustakas, IF/C, Chatsworth HS (CA)

Everyone seems to think the Nationals will take a pitcher with this pick, but recent reports have them hot after Southern California slugger Mike Moustakas.  Dealing with Scott Boras, or any other high-priced player, won’t be an issue.

 

7.  Milwaukee Brewers – Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Ecole Du Versant HS (Quebec )

Moustakas could be the pick here if he were available, but if he’s not there’s a good chance the Brewers take advantage of the number of high profile prep arms that project to be available at this spot.  Aumont seems like a natural choice, particularly since no team has scouted and signed as many players from Canada as the Brewers have the past three years.

 

8.  Colorado Rockies – Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (IN)

If Moskos fall this far, he probably won’t fall any further.  The Rockies may prefer a bat at this spot after taking Greg Reynolds second overall a year ago, but the talent at this spot, and for the next several spots, favors the prep pitching talent.

 

9.  Arizona Diamondbacks – Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt

The second of two Vanderbilt players to be taken in the top 10, the D-Backs may be looking for a relatively quick and easy sign after coughing up the dough necessary to sign last year’s first round pick, Max Scherzer.  Weathers could be in the team’s bullpen by the end of the year.

 

10.  San Francisco Giants – Beau Mills, 1B, Lewis-Clark State

Forget the Giants historical connection to Lewis-Clark State , Mills’ swing was tailor-made for McCovey Cove, and the Giants could use an impact bat or two in their system, especially since Barry Bonds is a year or two away from retirement.  With three first-round picks, the Giants will likely be looking to save some money with at least one of their selections.

 

11.  Seattle Mariners – Blake Beaven, RHP, Irving HS (TX)

The M’s need to add some powerful arms into their system, and there are several other candidates that would fit at this spot.  If they want to make some noise, they may turn their attention to someone like Andrew Brackman, who has some price-tag issues to go along with a tired arm.  Beaven makes more sense this early.

 

12.  Florida Marlins – Jason Heyward, OF, Henry County HS (GA)

Heyward would be a good fit for the Marlins, who have graduated quite a few notable hitters the past few years while focusing on powerful arms the past few years in the draft.

 

13.  Cleveland Indians – Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech

Wieters is definitely a candidate to fall, and I think he could very well be selected somewhere in the ‘teens of this year’s draft.  Without a second round pick, the Tribe may not be opposed to the money that will be necessary to sign this potential switch-hitting backstop, despite the presence of Victor Martinez at the big-league level.

 

14.  Atlanta Braves – Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (NC)

The Braves have never been shy about prep pitching, and Bumgarner has one of the most live arms of any player available for this year’s draft, and he’s a lefty to boot.  The Braves system will be a perfect fit for Bumgarner to help him learn to hone his breaking pitch and learn the benefit of changing speeds.

 

15.  Cincinnati Reds – Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (TX)

Ahrens name has been associated with the Reds for quite some time, and some may view this selection as an over-draft, but Ahrens bat may quickly prove to be more than well worth the selection.

 

16.  Toronto Blue Jays – Brett Cecil, LHP, Maryland

I’ve read some reports that the Blue Jays may be looking at some prep bats, mainly because they took one a year ago (Travis Snider), but I’ll believe it when I see it.  Cecil gives the Blue Jays another powerful lefty in their system, and despite being used as a reliever in college, he has the repertoire to succeed as a starter.

 

17.  Texas Rangers – Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsutawney   HS (PA)

The Rangers reportedly are looking to add more pure athletes to their system, and they don’t get much better than Mesoraco, who currently plays catcher but could be moved to second base a la Craig Biggio.  The Rangers have an additional first-rounder, and two supplemental first-rounders, and may use one of those picks to take a player that has dropped further than they should due to signability.  My guess is that they use one of their supplemental picks to accomplish this.

 

18.  St. Louis Cardinals – Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas

College players are always on the Cardinals radar, and similar to a few of the other teams that pick in this area, the Cards may also be willing to take a chance on a player that is perceived to be a more difficult sign.  Schmidt makes sense given some of the players they have taken in recent years given his success in college, and may move quickly.

 

19.  Philadelphia Phillies – Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (CA)

I noted above that Dominguez could be a candidate to be taken much earlier, but I don’t think scouts are as sold on his bat as they are the rest of his game, particularly his defense, where he could be a perennial Gold Glover at the hot corner.  The Phillies like high potential, well-rounded positional players, and Dominguez fits the bill here.

 

20.  Los Angeles Dodgers – Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun HS (GA)

The Dodgers select a high school pitcher?  Logan White has never been shy about taking prep arms, and Smoker is a natural fit here given his combination of stuff and polish.

 

21.  Toronto Blue Jays – Nick Noonan, IF, Francis Parker HS (CA)

The second of two first round picks, the Blue Jays do take a prep bat at this spot, but they take one who is known more for his sweet stroke than his glove.  He likely moves to second base with any other ballclub, but the Blue Jays may just let Noonan stay at short until he proves he absolutely cannot play there.

 

22.  San Francisco Giants – Aaron Poreda, LHP, San Francisco

After taking a big bat from a smaller school with their first of three first-round picks, they turn their attention to a powerful arm from their own backyard.  Poreda has received a lot of buzz as a potential late-round pick

 

23.  San Diego Padres – James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside

Simmons makes a lot of sense for the Padres, who have taken several polished pitchers the past few years that are known more for their moxie on the mound than for their pure stuff.  After signing draft and follow candidate Matt Latos, coupled with three supplemental first round picks and an additional second rounder, the Padres may be looking at a few conservative selections to save some money at some point.

 

24.  Texas Rangers – Will Middlebrooks, SS/RHP, Liberty   Eylau HS (TX)

The second of two extremely athletic high school players, Middlebrooks could be groomed either as a power hitting infielder or as a tall, projectable right-handed pitcher.

 

25.  Chicago White Sox – Michael Main, RHP, De Land HS (FL)

There is some talk that Main could be draft as a centerfielder, but there’s no way a team passes up on his 98 mile per hour fastball.  There is some effort to his delivery, but the White Sox have never been shy about taking an arm like Main ’s from the prep ranks.

 

26.  Oakland Athletics – Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS (AZ)

Everyone thinks the A’s are allergic to prep players, particularly pitchers, after the Moneyball phenomena.  That isn’t the case, at least not in recent years, and Alderson is particularly intriguing given how good his command his in addition to his impressive size and stuff.

 

27.  Detroit Tigers – Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida

The Tigers have benefitted the past two years by not making money an object when it comes to their first round pick, landing Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller at spots few felt they would ever fall to, and paying them accordingly.  If they continue that trend, Matt LaPorta could be a natural fit for the Tigers, whose system could use a first baseman with thump.

 

28.  Minnesota Twins – Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland Christian HS (TX)

Nothing new for the Twins, taking a high-potential prep player, this year from the pitching side.  Withrow is a similar prospect to Kyle Waldrop, another player that had helium entering the draft three years ago.

 

29.  San Francisco – Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State

Carpenter has been a name on the rise all spring after touching the upper-90s with his fastball.  He entered the spring as a relative unknown after having Tommy John surgery more than a year ago.  His arm has obviously responded well, and while he needs to work on his command, he could be yet another relatively quick sign for a team that has so many additional early-round picks.

 

30.  New York Yankees – Jake Arrieta, RHP, TCU

The Yankees would continue a trend from a year ago by taking a pitcher that falls due to inconsistency and potential bonus aspirations.  They landed Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy a year ago, two of the more exciting college pitchers available, and could add a third this year in Arrieta.  Andrew Brackman also fits that profile at this spot.

 

Those that could drop

Andrew Brackman’s name was mentioned a few times just above.  Based on pure talent he could easily go within the top three overall picks, but inconsistent stuff and command, as well as a tired arm towards the end of the year, makes it difficult to get a read on the immensely talented skyscraper for a pitcher.  Yes, he is to be advised by Scott Boras, which will make his price tag come into question, and whoever takes him may want to monitor him through the summer to see how his arm responds.  My guess is that a team with an extra pick in the supplemental round does just that, and if he rebounds as many hope he will, he could be an exciting name to follow up until the new August 15 signing deadline.

 

Julio Borbon is another candidate that could fall.  On pure talent he’s a top 15 overall pick, and would be a natural selection for the Texas Rangers given their need for improve athleticism, not to mention a prototypical leadoff-hitting centerfielder.  After sustaining a broken ankle earlier in the spring, it wasn’t his speed that suffered but his bat.  The tender ankle prevented him from driving the ball consistently, and he also lost focus of the improved plate discipline he showed playing for Team USA the summer before.  Similar to Brackman, Borbon could be a player taken in the supplemental round by a team with extra picks hoping to see if his bat improves over the summer.

 

Another Scott Boras advisee if Matt Harvey, whose name doesn’t seem to be connected with many teams in the first round of the draft.  Regardless of his association with Boras , his commitment to North Carolina speaks volumes of his pedigree, as the Tar Heels rarely lose such high profile recruits (Rick Porcello and Madison Bumgarner have also committed to UNC).  Of the three, I think Harvey is the best bet to be stepping onto Chapel Hill ’s campus next fall, where he could pick up in the starting rotation where Robert Woodard is about the leave off.

 

Jack McGeary is my fourth candidate to fall, who, like Harvey , has a strong college commitment.  His commitment is to the one school that almost never loses it’s biggest recruits:  Stanford.

 

How will this year’s draft shake out?  Probably nothing like the one I have shared above, and that is what makes the event so fun to follow.

 

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA .  Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.