Crack of the Bat
by Patrick Ebert

Cost and Demand
We all know money plays a big part in what teams draft which players.  We also have heard quite a bit about the effect certain agents, such as Scott Boras, have on the supposed bonus demands on the players they advise.  Fans of the draft often ask me “if play X falls to team Y, will that team take that player, and if not, why?”

Allow me to say that I feel the agent/advisor issue is somewhat overblown.  Yes, some players may cost more initially, but as we’ve seen with players like Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver, you often get what you pay for, and the teams willing to take the financial risk are the ones reaping the benefits.

Mock drafts in Major League Baseball aren’t as easy to figure out because of the financial ramifications.  Money doesn’t play as big of a part in the NFL and NBA drafts because there are systems in place in which teams roughly know what they are going to pay for the players at their projected picks.

The commissioner’s office has tried it’s best to assign slot values, and does it’s best to try and make sure teams follow these guidelines.  There is no official system in place, so not all teams follow these pre-determined suggestions, and every team has a different philosophy and budget that they adhere to.

Allan Simpson already broke down the top 15 teams in the draft in his draft notebook last week on PG Crosschecker while offering several players that those teams are reportedly looking at for their first round pick.

In this column, I’m going to take a look at the recent draft history of the teams drafting in the first half of the first round in an attempt to determine what direction they may be heading, and whether or not money will play as big of a role with their selection given the number of players that may fall further than expected due to their affiliation with certain advisors and/or college commitments.

1.  Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The D-Rays are no strangers to selecting towards the top of the draft, as this year will mark the third time in their existence that they have the dubious honor of selecting first overall.  While the team has continued to struggle despite having great opportunities to add star-level talent via the draft, you can’t blame those struggles on their reluctance to open their pocketbooks.  Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young (selected first overall in 1999 and 2003 respectively) commanded very big signing bonuses, and they also gave other first round picks such as Rocco Baldelli, Dewon Brazelton, B.J. Upton and Jeff Niemann money that many teams would have shied away from.  Add in large bonuses to players selected after the first round and through other avenues such as Matt White, Carl Crawford and Akinori Iwamura and you have a team that clearly won’t let money play as big of a part of their decision as other small market teams that also have been drafting early in the draft for several years.

David Price is considered by most to be a no-brainer for the Devil Rays selection, and the Devil Rays have been too bad for too long to select a player that isn’t a legitimate candidate to go first overall.

The Devil Rays did not lose or gain any picks through the free agent compensation process.

2.  Kansas City Royals
The Royals have been showing a commitment to internal scouting and player development the past couple of years, which was emphasized by the hiring of General Manager Dayton Moore, formerly of the Braves organization.  Last year, the Royals took the player that was number one on their draft board all along, Luke Hochevar, and didn’t blink at the amount of money that was required to sign him.  The same goes for Alex Gordon the year before, so don’t expect the Royals to go cheap.  They may however be looking for a relatively easier sign after spending two consecutive summers handing out nearly $10 million dollars.

The early word is that the Royals have been scouting prep righty Rick Porcello pretty hard, but may opt for a local product in Missouri State’s Ross Detwiler, who would likely sign quickly.  Like the Devil Rays, the Royals need to make sure they select the right player to help ensure they won’t continue to select at the top of the draft for years to come.

The Royals also did not lose or gain any picks for free agent activity.

3.  Chicago Cubs
The Cubs aren’t shy about making interesting selections, and they aren’t afraid about spending money either.  The selection of Jeff Samardzija and the eventual big-league contract and bonus he received to forego his potential NFL career emphatically proved that last year.  They signed second rounder Grant Johnson to first-round money three years ago, and gave Bobby Brownlie, the 21^st overall selection in 2002, over two million dollars.

So while the Cubs probably wouldn’t let a player slide past them (such as Price should the D-Rays go a different direction), they reportedly have been all over prep third baseman Josh Vitters in recent weeks after rumors earlier in the spring had the Cubs linked to Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters.  Vitters likely would sign for slot value quickly.

The Cubs gained a supplemental first round pick when Juan Pierre signed with the Dodgers, but lost their second round selection when they signed Alfonso Soriano as part of their offseason spending spree.

4.  Pittsburgh Pirates
Throw the Pirates on the conservative pile.  In recent years they have followed the old adage of taking college pitchers and high school hitters.  They really have had some bad luck, mostly involving injuries, with recent pitching prospects (Brad Lincoln, Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, Bobby Bradley, Sean Burnett), so they could use a little bit of good fortune.

Originally thought to be hot on Josh Vitters, having the Cubs high on him one pick ahead likely has thrown a monkey wrench in their plans.  Polished college pitchers have been on their radar in recent years, which may make someone like Ross Detwiler or Daniel Moskos a natural fit.

The Pirates did not lose or gain any draft picks.

5.  Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are similar to the Cubs in that they always seem to make interesting selections in the draft.  After taking Adam Loewen fourth overall in 2002, they waited until a week before the 2003 draft to offer him a record contract given to a draft-and-follow candidate.  They followed up that signing by taking Nick Markakis, a proven big-leaguer now, but a player that was considered to be a signability pick when they took him.

Due to the presence of Loewen and fellow rotation mate Erik Bedard, some feel that the Orioles may look towards another Canadian with their first-round pick:  Phillippe Aumont.  They also are reportedly scouting the two college left-handers hard, Daniel Moskos and Ross Detwiler, and despite some reports that they won’t let money get in the way, owner Peter Angelos always seems to have the final say on who is selected and how much money it will take to sign that player.

The Orioles lost their second and third round picks due to free agent signings (Danys Baez and Chad Bradford), so they may feel as though they have some extra money to play with.

6.  Washington Nationals
With and extra first-round pick a year ago, the Nationals plucked two very talented former Aflac All-Americans in Chris Marrero and Colton Willems, spending over three million dollars between the two of them.  One of their two second round picks, Sean Black, ended up honoring his commitment to Seton Hall.  This came a year after they selected and signed Ryan Zimmerman for nearly three million dollars, the first year the team drafted with the Nationals team name since moving from Montreal .

So it’s somewhat difficult to project what direction the Nationals will take.  General Manager Jim Bowden has never been shy about taking prep pitchers, and he also has shown a fondness for multi-tooled outfielders.  Mike Rizzo, formerly of the Diamondbacks, has shown no problems negotiating with players advised by Scott Boras.

However, the Nationals picked up two supplemental first-round picks due to the loss of free agent outfielders Alfonso Soriano and Jose Guillen, and those extra picks will require a fair chunk of change, which may mean the Nationals may be looking to stay close to slot value with all of their early picks.

7.  Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Director Jack Zduriencik has adhered to the mantra of taking the best player available since he took over in 2000.  The team has also adhered to the commissioner’s pre-determined slot values, which may have something to do with Bud Selig once owning the Brewers.  They aren’t necessarily cheap, as they have always been active selecting and signing players for over slot value in the later rounds, while also being active with the draft-and-follow process.

Zduriencik also isn’t shy about taking high school pitchers, with three prep pitchers being selected as first round picks during his tenure:  Mike Jones, Mark Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress.  He hasn’t taken a prep pitcher two years in a row, although that may change this year as the talent at the seventh spot is heavy with high school arms, with Jarrod Parker, Phillippe Aumont and Madison Bumgarner all in the mix.

The Brewers lost their second round pick by signing free agent pitcher Jeff Suppan.  While some may assume they may have extra money to play with, it should be noted that they have three very talented draft-and-follow candidates that they could sign for bonuses comparable to early round picks in Chad Robinson, Lee Haydel and Rob Bryson.

8.  Colorado Rockies
For whatever reason, people seem to assume that the Rockies could be a candidate to spend money over slot value with the eighth overall pick, however they have stayed pretty close to slot value with all of their early picks since the 2000 season.  They haven’t selected a high school pitcher in the first round since they took Matt Harrington seventh overall in 2000, although that could change this year given the prep pitching talent projected to be available at this spot.

The Rockies did not gain or lose any picks via the free agent compensation system.

9.  Arizona Diamondbacks
It is difficult to project what direction the D-Backs will take this year since they have a new scouting director, Tom Allison, formerly a crosschecker with the Brewers, who replaced the departed Mike Rizzo.  In past years the D-Backs under Rizzo’s charge weren’t shy about taking players that had fallen due to lofty bonus aspirations, such as Stephen Drew and Max Scherzer, and didn’t blink when given the opportunity to select and sign Justin Upton when they owned the first overall pick just two years ago.

Scherzer remains unsigned, so the direction they take in this year’s draft will likely be influenced on whether or not he is signed.  The organization is loaded with high profile, impact bats, so most seem to think an arm will be taken here.

The Diamondbacks gained a supplemental pick when Craig Counsell signed with the Brewers, and may gain another should Scherzer re-enter the draft.  So even if Scherzer doesn’t sign with the team, they still will have two extra, early picks that will require substantial bonuses.

10.  San Francisco Giants
The Giants have had one of the more unique, yet successful, recent draft histories of any other team.  General Manager Brian Sabean has made interesting off-season moves in the past, most notably signing free agent Michael Tucker a few years ago the day before the deadline for teams to offer players arbitration, thus losing his first-round pick for a platoon player.

This year is a different story.  While the Giants lost their second, third and fourth round picks due to free agent signings, they gained two first-round picks and three supplemental first-round picks due to the loss of free agents Moises Alou, Jason Schmidt and Mike Stanton.

While one may think that the team would definitely stick to slot value, if not perform somewhat of a “Moneyball” draft by signing some players at these selections for less than slot value, there are some rumblings that the team may be prepared to select Andrew Brackman with one of their first-round picks.

11.  Seattle Mariners
Another team that has a unique recent draft history, the team has made some conservative selections in recent years, and lost a couple of early round selections in the 2003 draft (John Mayberry, Jr. and Eddy Martinez-Esteve).  In 2004 they gave third round pick Matt Tuiasosopo over two million dollars as a third round pick, although it should be noted that the team did not have a first or second round selection that year.

They made two more relatively conservative picks the past two years in Jeff Clement and Brandon Morrow, who made the big-league club’s bullpen out of spring training.  They’re not shy about taking prep bats, but I wouldn’t expect the Mariners to surprise anyone by reaching out a taking a player that is perceived to be a difficult sign.

The team has an additional supplemental pick due to the loss of free agent Gil Meche.

12.  Florida Marlins
The Marlins had an extra pick in last year’s draft, and five additional picks in the first two rounds in the 2005 draft, and managed to sign all of those selections for roughly slot value.  This year the team does not have any additional compensation picks (nor did they lose any picks), so it is difficult to project whether or not they may be a team prepared to take a player that may slide further than they should and pay them accordingly.  If they kept their draft budget from either the 2006 or 2005 season, they definitely have the resources to do so.

In those past two drafts the Marlins have been loading up on pitching, particularly high school arms, and while the system is strong all over due to the amount prospects they have acquired in trade the past few seasons, they could stand to add an impact bat to the system.  Notably Matt Wieters should he slip this far.

13.  Cleveland Indians
The Indians are a lot like the Marlins in that they have had several additional, early draft picks and always manage to budget to sign these extra picks close to slot value.  Last year the team spent over two million dollars between their three second round picks, including a cool million to third baseman Wes Hodges, although they did not have a first round selection.

This year they are without both their second and third round picks due to free agent activity this past off-season, and again may be in a position to sign a player that could slide in the draft due to bonus aspirations.  It also should be noted that they drafted and signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three million dollar bonus with the 22^nd overall selection in 2002, a year in which they also signed supplemental pick Matt Whitney to a bonus worth over one million dollars.

There is no strict drafting philosophy in the Indians scouting department, as they have taken prep and college bats as well as prep and college arms in the early rounds, which means they truly adhere to the best player available philosophy more than most teams that claim to take the same approach.

14.  Atlanta Braves
You know what you’re getting with the Atlanta Braves.  They prefer high school players, both hitters and pitchers, but aren’t opposed to drafting players from the college ranks.  They also prefer to scour their own backyard, plucking players from Georgia , the Carolinas and Florida more than any other part of the country.

The Braves are another team that often has extra compensation picks, and usually signs the players selected at those spots for slot value.  In 2002, they took Jeff Francoeur, now the team’s starting right fielder, one pick after Jeremy Guthrie, and signed him for over two million dollars.  This may suggest that the Braves could be a natural fit for someone like Georgia Tech star Matt Wieters should he make it this far.

The Braves have an additional pick in the sandwich round.

15.  Cincinnati Reds
After the Reds were aggressive in selecting and signing both David Espinosa and Dane Sardina in the 2000 draft, their approach to the draft has been much more conservative.  They selected Jeremy Sowers out of high school in the first round in 2001, despite knowing the amount of money it would take to sign him, and Sowers attended Vanderbilt as most people expected.  They passed on Scott Kazmir in 2002, instead selecting Chris Gruler for less than slot value with the third overall pick.  After taking college closer Ryan Wagner with their first pick in 2003, they seemed to get back on track in 2004 when they selected Homer Bailey, who may have slipped a couple of spots further than he should have and paid him a little more than his slot would have usually warranted.

Even though Jim Bowden is no longer with the team, the Reds still actively pursue players that are high on tools, particularly power arms and five-tool outfielders, as evidenced by their last two first round picks, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce.  The Reds never seem to be short on bats, so another power arm may be their target here.

The Reds picked up a sandwich pick for the free agent loss of Rich Aurilia.