Crack of the Bat

by Blaine Clemmens

 

Opportunity lost… opportunity gained

An opportunity lost for one player is another’s gain at draft time.  It seems that in recent weeks there has been a rash of injuries to some of the top arms in California.  In most of those cases it means the recently injured pitchers are going to be passed on in the draft.  Depending on the extent of the injury, some of them may be drafted late as possible draft and follows, but there is some risk involved with a decision like that. 

 

A couple of very good junior college arms have succumbed to injury. Hard throwing RHP Brad Barragar of Golden West College experienced one of the most awful things that happens from time to time on the baseball field.  He broke his humerus bone of his pitching arm while throwing a pitch.  If you have ever been around the yard when that happens, you will never forget the sound when the humerus snaps (it sounds like solid contact with a wood bat).  We wish Brad a healthy recovery and our thoughts are with him and his family. 

 

RHP Kyle Harper of Orange Coast College recently suffered a torn elbow ligament and will undergo his second Tommy John surgery.  Last fall Harper was showing a 92-94 mph fastball and once again was considered a prospect.  He signed a letter of intent to attend Long Beach State which at this time is likely to be his only option.  Even if he is able to recover and return to form while at Long Beach, in the future it will be difficult for a team to draft a player with his track record of injury.  We (www.PGCrosschecker.com) had Harper projected to go in the 10-15 round range of this draft.

 

The D-I level has not escaped the injury bug.  Cal State Fullerton closer Vinnie Pestano, who was projected by us as a 7^th round pick this year (and realistically could have gone as high as the 4^th round) left a game on March 10 with an elbow issue.  He felt something pop and at first it was thought to be a torn ligament.  He underwent some tests earlier this week and it appears as though he will not have to have TJ surgery, but he is out at least four weeks.

 

Who knows how many other pitchers out there are pitching in pain with the hope of surviving until the draft.   This time of year is the absolute worst to come up with any sort of ailment and prospects will do what they can to hide anything that is bothering them.  Then again, scouts are to do a thorough medical history check on players and if there is a question would want a player to get a physical before signing them.  The possibility does exist that a club will draft and sign a player with a serious injury, as was the case a couple of years ago when the Angels drafted high school RHP Nick Adenhart in the 14^th round. 

 

Adenhart was rated the top high school pitcher and projected to go in the top five picks of the 2004 draft.   However, in his last regular season start he tore his elbow ligament and made the choice to undergo TJ surgery.  He was signed to attend North Carolina but instead chose to sign with Angels, feeling that it was best to pursue a professional career instead of risking injury again at the college level and never having the chance to play pro ball again.  His signing bonus was $710,000 and at this point, it looks like a bargain for the Angels as Adenhart was a non-roster invitee to big league camp this past spring and is rolling toward the big leagues. 

 

In October of 2004, highly touted California high school LHP Joe Hatasaki (Mountain View HS) underwent TJ surgery.   Last November in Jupiter he was back on the mound in game competition again, pitching for the Braves Scout Team in the WWBA Championships.  The time table for getting back to pitching competitively after TJ surgery is 12-18 months and a full two years is usually the time it takes for a full recovery.  Joe was very sharp in Jupiter and looked well on his way back to the form that had him being recruited by every major college in the West.  He signed with Arizona State this past fall.

 

Rewind to the part of that last paragraph that said it is two years before a full recovery is generally expected.   That would make October of 2006 Hatasaki’s target date, which would be toward the end of fall practice for the ASU Sun Devils.  Will he be on campus next fall or will a team take a chance on Joe, banking that his best days are still ahead of him after that two year period? 

 

Many pitchers eventually come back throwing harder after successful TJ surgery and proper rehabilitation.  The slightly built Hatasaki had touched up to 91 with his fastball pre-injury, so it is conceivable that after the two year period he comes out firing in the low 90s, complemented by his outstanding change-up, solid curveball, and very good pitchability.  Something to consider and there may be a club or two considering just that.

 

If Pestano comes back and pitches four weeks from now for Fullerton in the NCAA playoffs, what does that mean?  Does it mean he is healthy or would he be pitching in pain to help his team?  The draft is within three weeks so it seems as though any team that is still considering Pestano will have to take a risk that he is healthy because they are not likely to see him at full strength before the draft.

 

With Harper and Barragar, the injuries are known and it would seem that they are not going to be drafted, not even by teams that normally might take a risk on an injured pitcher.  The Angels seemingly take more risks than any other organization, but they likely wouldn’t touch Harper or Barragar now.  That means that two draftable arms are now out of the mix, opening the door for two players that may not have been in the mix.

 

There are roughly 1500 players drafted each year which sounds like a lot, but when you really consider all the players at the high school, junior college, and four year college level, it really isn’t. We have been putting together our draft round projections for PGCrosschecker.com and when you do that it really sheds light on how few the opportunities there are for players to go in the top 10 rounds… even the top 15 rounds.  

 

When you put all the players in the nation in one pool and then sort it out, only 30 can go in any one round (except for the supplemental picks).  Before you know it, a player that has been considered a 3^rd round talent by so many people ends up being slotted in the 6^th round because there are only 106 picks through round 3.  When a 2^nd round type talent goes down, that slides up a player.  That means a player that would have gone in the 3^rd now will go in the 2^nd round.  Pestano could have gone anywhere from the 4^th to the 8^th, and if he was to have gone in the 4^th, it means a player that is slotted in the 5^th round could now be in the mix in the 4^th. 

 

Who are the players that could move up a round with the injuries to pitchers like Pestano?  Well, since there are probably around 400 players that are under consideration for the 256 picks that it takes to complete the 8^th round, that is a tough question.  The point is that opportunities lost by potential early round picks, and even by Harper and Barragar, have opened the door for other players to make a little extra money and for a couple of others that may have been undrafted to now get the chance to sign a professional contract.  In some ways, it is survival of the fittest.

 

This column represents the thoughts and opinions of the author and are not necessarily those of Perfect Game.