Crack of the Bat

by Blaine Clemmens

 

PG Top 400 by State Part2

 

So, getting back to the representation or lack thereof of some states in that Top 400… one way for more players from the underrepresented states to get considered for that ranking is to be seen more by PG scouts and that does not mean only at PG events.  We scout most, if not all the big events, Area Codes, East Coast Professional, USA Baseball events like Junior Olympics and Tournament of Stars, etc. so we are doing our best to see as many of the top players as we can.  Our relationship with quality baseball people (scouts, summer coaches, etc.) also helps us.

 

Oh yes, before I go on, I want to apologize for the delay in the completion of my thoughts regarding the PG Top 400.  On Tuesday, March 14, my wife gave birth to our first child, a beautiful baby boy, Kalen Clemmens.  Kalen is the third “PG baby boy” born in the last few weeks, joining Hammerin’ Hank Ebert and Rocky Yasutake atop the top prospect list for 2024.

 

Ok, back to the task at hand.  It is a fact that Florida, California, and Texas year in and year out have more prospects than the other states combined, and that is not likely to change.  Those states also send more teams and players to baseball’s highest profile events like PG National, WWBA Championships, Area Codes, East Coast Professional, so it kind of works hand in hand in terms of our awareness of players from those states.  Of course it also has to do with the weather, population, and the baseball culture in those states.

 

We also see many, if not most of the top players in Georgia on a year to year basis.  There are an increasing number of talented players from the Peach State each year.  Georgia has developed a strongly rooted baseball culture and I think it really started to take hold with the unprecedented success of the Atlanta Braves.  The East Cobb Baseball program would seem to be another reason Georgia has surged up the list of producing professional prospects and top end college players, but they are not the only reason.  There are simply more quality athletes playing baseball in Georgia than in years past… again, maybe the success of the Atlanta Braves has something to do with it. 

 

Would a state like North Carolina surge with the number of players if there was a pro baseball team with the success like the Braves in the Tarheel State?  What about Alabama, or South Carolina?  Interesting to ponder.  Virginia has a recently developed baseball culture without the presence of a pro organization as successful as the Braves.  More and more of the top young athletes are sticking with baseball longer in Virginia (like Georgia) which has increased the number of top end baseball prospects from that state.  Ultimately that is the key, to not lose the most talented young athletes to other sports. Georgia and Virginia are doing a great job of that.

 

It is clear that year in and year many Southern states have a high number of “blue chip” prospects in other sports so it stands to reason that if more of them stuck with baseball longer, we may see more players along the lines of Cameron Maybin or the Upton brothers in the coming years.  Well, maybe not exactly like Maybin and the Uptons… they are all pretty special.  You get the point.  The more recognition those top young players can get from a scouting resource like Perfect Game, the more likely they are to stick with baseball.  And again, that doesn’t mean those players have to attend our events, they just need to stick with the game and we will do our job of identifying them.

 

When I looked at the breakdown of players from different states in that Top 400, I was surprised at the low number of players from Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.  To a lesser degree, I was surprised that states like Mississippi, Washington, and Kentucky had so few players on the list. 

 

In the case of Washington, though there were only 9 players on in the Top 400, 4 of them were in the Top 100.  If nearly half the 9 players ranked from Washington were Top 100 caliber, it is likely there are more than 9 of Top 400 caliber.  However, maybe there is more than meets the eye when looking at the number of Big Leaguers from Washington, relative to the number of advanced high school players worthy of a Top 400. 

 

One trip to the Pacific Northwest Championships (www.baseballnorthwest.com) or to see the NW team at the Area Codes (in recent years… Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lester, Trevor Crowe, Nick Hundley were all on the same NW Area Code team) is all it takes to understand the depth of talent in the Pacific Northwest.  In recent years the level of ability of the top end players in Washington and Oregon has improved.  Baseball Northwest has been a big time part of that development and will continue to be in the future.  However, of that group, only Lester signed out of high school.  The other players went to college before they developed into top round talents.  Same thing for Jed Lowrie.

 

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois are states that year in and year out produce big time prep football and basketball players and a lot of future Major League Baseball players, so it is clear that there are young, talented athletes in those states.  As recently as 2003, Illinois (slightly more than 12.4 million people) had 55 natives in the Big Leagues, Pennsylvania (nearly 12.3 million people) had 30, and Ohio (nearly 11.5 million people) had 36.  Two years later for the 2005 season, that number was 44 for Illinois, 31 for Pennsylvania, and 30 for Ohio.  The numbers say the talent is there but the question is when that talent developed to the advanced level.

 

At www.baseball-almanac.com you can find a breakdown of Major League Baseball players by place of birth during any particular season.  Here is the direct link http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/birthplace.php?y=2005.

 

How many players and teams from Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are developed enough on a year to year basis to be evaluated in comparison with the top players and teams from Florida, California, and Texas?  Not as many as from Georgia (roughly 8.9 million people), which is possibly why there are only 5 players from Illinois, and 4 from both Pennsylvania and Ohio on the Top 400 list and 33 from Georgia. 

 

Those numbers contrast the number of Big Leaguers from each of those states in 2005… Illinois (44), Pennsylvania (31), Ohio (30), Georgia (38).  The point is that there is talent in those states, but it takes longer to develop due to the amount of baseball (or lack thereof, trust me, I know, I played three years of high school ball in Illinois) those kids get to play and the level of competition they consistently get to play against.

 

Maybe that differential exists because we don’t see as many of the top players from Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio at the highest profile events against the top competition.   It is acknowledged that players from cold weather states develop later than players from warm weather states.  Population and weather also are reasons for the high numbers of players from Florida, California, and Texas.  Kids in California, Texas, Florida, and for the most part Georgia, can play baseball year round.  They can also do so in another state that I will touch on later, Arizona.

 

But how do we account for a warm weather state like Mississippi having 20 natives in the Big Leagues in 2005, but only one player in the Top 400 list?  Well, the answer may lie in how many players and teams from Mississippi we saw in the past year at the big events.  Or it could be like it was for Roy Oswalt who attended junior college before he became a prospect.  The talent is there, but that talent may just be a bit raw. 

 

Maybe the spring weather in Mississippi discourages top young players from playing baseball further into their high school years.  There also isn’t a nationally established organization like East Cobb or NorCal or Houston Heat or ABD in Mississippi, the type of program that hones the abilities of the top young athletes then gets them to the top tournaments and showcases against the top teams and players.

 

It is also interesting to compare Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio with another cold weather state, Wisconsin.  That comparison reveals some interesting things.  With only 5.3 million people Wisconsin had 5 players in the Top 400, the same number as Illinois (5) with nearly 12.5 million people, and more than Pennsylvania (4) and Ohio (4), each with over double the population of Wisconsin.  The www.baseball-almanac.com chart shows 8 native Wisconsinites in the Big Leagues for the 2003 season and 12 for the 2005 season.

 

Now, I am not foolish enough to guarantee that Illinois has more than 5 Top 400 players or that Pennsylvania and Ohio each have more than 4, but a glance at the numbers at basball-almanac.com suggests there are.  I believe that Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio baseball is stronger than that what is represented in the Top 400, but I also acknowledge that maybe Wisconsin is simply in a good cycle right now.  That happens.  The same thing is happening in Utah right now.  A group of talented young players there are all pushing each other to levels that previous Utah players have not been to.  That is likely to have a trickle down effect to the younger players.

 

The Midwest Blazers do a nice job of basically bringing the best Wisconsin (and some from Illinois, Michigan, etc.) has to offer to the biggest tournaments.  In the coming years, I suspect the number of all players from cold weather states in the Top 400 will rise, and the reason is stated at the end of this article.  We look forward to seeing more and more of the best that Illinois and other “cold weather states” have to offer.  The more baseball played by the young, talented players from Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc, the more those states will be represented in a Top 400.

 

I spend a lot of time scouting in Arizona and believe there are more than 9 Top 400 caliber players from that state.  However, traditionally not many teams from Arizona have attended the big national tournaments and showcases.  They have largely stayed local, with so many of those kids wanting to play for the home state ASU Sun Devils or Arizona Wildcats, so I don’t believe the nation has seen the absolute best Arizona has to offer.  With a population of only 5.1 million, 9 players on that list is a decent number for Arizona, but it is still lower than I think it will be in future rankings.  The 2007 and 2008 classes in Arizona are strong.

 

As more Arizona players and teams begin attending big team tournaments and showcases, hopefully starting in 2006, the number of players represented in that ranking will increase.  In 2005 there were 9 native Arizonans in the Big Leagues, so maybe 9 in the Top 400 is an accurate representation.  Even though Arizona has a small population, there is a baseball culture (weather, MLB spring training facilities, two powerhouse D1 programs) there that likely will end up producing a disproportionate number of MLB players relative to the population of the state.

 

The Perfect Game BCS tournaments are going to go a long way toward Perfect Game becoming more aware of more top players across the nation.  With the BCS format, Perfect Game is making the effort to come to areas of the country where we have not traditionally had a presence nor seen as many players as we would like.  That will increase our awareness of more players, which will ultimately benefit the players themselves.  Watch the number of players from states traditionally underrepresented in the Top 400 or Top 100 start to rise as the Baseball Championship Series gets rooted.

 

I have a few more thoughts on this stuff, so check back in soon!