DRAFT 2008
One Month Out Until the Draft
By David Rawnsley
We are
roughly four weeks away from Major League Baseball’s 30 teams gathering at the
Milk House at Walt Disney World for the 2008 draft. ESPN2 and MLB.com will
again be providing first-day draft coverage, with yours truly being among the
commentators. The first five rounds will be conducted on June 5 with the
balance a day later.
As the
draft approaches, the draft’s primary theme has been college
prospects—specifically college hitters, but the college pitching crop has been
pretty solid across the board as well. Allan Simpson, PG Crosschecker’s draft
coordinator, and I have been making our initial attempts at laying out the
first round, the top 3 rounds and even the top 10 rounds, and the dominance of
college players throughout is unmistakable. We’re looking at the potential for
22-24 college players in the first 30 picks.
As part of
PG Crosschecker’s extensive draft coverage, we’ll provide our take on the
projected top 100 picks on Thursday. The preponderance of college players
should be evident on that list.
The recent
philosophical shifting of the sands towards college players over the past few
years doesn’t appear to have anything to do with the emphasis this year on
college talent. It’s simply a particularly strong group of college prospects.
There are, of course, a number of high school players who, strictly on talent
evaluations, would be high picks but a number are expected to slide because of
signability reasons—but that happens every year. Another factor in the
disparity this year is that two primary high school talent bases,Florida
and
Texas
, are both experiencing somewhat below-average talent years.
As an
example of the dip in high school talent, there were six high school pitchers
selected between picks 9 (righthander Jarrod Parker, Diamondbacks) and 24
(righthander Michael Main, Rangers) in the 2007 draft. It’s a struggle to
identify even a small handful of prep pitchers who could go solidly in the
first two rounds this year, and everyone knows that high school pitchers, the
riskiest demographic in the draft, tend to slide a bit on draft day when things
start shaking out.
California
righthander Aaron Hicks, Georgia righthander Ethan Martin and Florida
righthander Casey Kelly probably have the best shot of going in the first round
among high school pitchers—and the irony there is that all were primarily known
as position players before this season, and may still think of themselves that
way. In fact, Kelly has reportedly advised clubs that he wants to play
shortstop in pro ball and would seriously consider fulfilling his football
scholarship to Tennessee (he’s one of the nation’s top quarterback recruits) if
a team drafts him with the intent of making him a pitcher.
Three
themes about this year’s draft to explore:
Tampa
Bay’s
No. 1 Pick
Much has
been written about Tampa Bay having the first overall pick in consecutive
drafts (the Rays took Vanderbilt lefthander David Price in 2007), the first
time that’s happened after a change in draft rules that now awards the top pick
to the team with the poorest overall record in the preceding year, regardless
of league.
Whereas
Price was a consensus pick from almost two years before the 2007 draft, there
is a large core of very solid prospects that are still in consideration for the
top selection and they come from all player demographics. Included are
Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez,
Georgia
shortstop Gordon Beckham,
Georgia
high school shortstop Tim Beckham (no relation to Gordon),
Missouri
righthander Aaron Crow,
San Diego
lefthander Brian Matusz,
Florida
State
catcher Buster Posey and
California
high school catcher Kyle Skipworth.
The
general talk in the industry is that the Rays are leaning towards Posey, but
that is likely just speculation at this point. Posey is a fascinating story. He
was an Aflac All-American as a pitcher coming out of a
Georgia
high school, played shortstop at
Florida
State
as a freshman and converted successfully to catching as a sophomore. All the
while, he has become one of college baseball’s premier hitters this spring.
Posey does raise some eyebrows among scouts as a potential first overall pick,
however, as he’s not seen as a high-ceiling player. He’s more like a very solid
player at a premium position. He would also fill a need in a rapidly-improving
Tampa
Bay
organization.
A good
comparison to Posey might be lefthanded-hitting B.J. Surhoff, who both caught
and played shortstop at North Carolina on his way to becoming the first overall
pick in the 1985 draft. The versatile Surhoff caught for much of his early
career before switching to third base and eventually the outfield. He had a
solid career and ended up with more than 2,300 career hits, but he played in
only one All-Star Game and was never the primary player on a team.
The rest
of the list of candidates covers all the options. The best righthander is Crow;
the best lefthander is Matusz; the top college slugger is Alvarez; the top high
school athlete is Tim Beckham; the top college infielder is Gordon Beckham and
the top high school catcher since Joe Mauer went first overall in 2001 is
Skipworth. Throw in the top high school slugger,
Florida
first baseman Eric Hosmer, a probable top 10 pick, and you would have the
entire spectrum of prospects for the Rays to pick from.
Based on
all the factors that I’m aware of, Matusz would be my personal favorite if I
was in the shoes of
Tampa
Bay
scouting director R.J. Harrison. He isn’t as physical and athletic in his
approach as Price, but his stuff is overwhelmingly good and his track record
since he was a fourth-round pick out of an
Arizona
high school in 2005 is pretty flawless. An obvious comparison to the 6-foot-5,
200-pound Matusz would be Florida Marlins lefthander Andrew Miller, who many
considered the top college pitcher in the pitching-loaded 2006 draft. Matusz
grades out higher than Miller did at the same stage in most categories, with
four potential plus big league pitches.
Banner
College
First Base Crop
While
Georgia
’s Gordon Beckham is leading the NCAA Division I ranks in
home runs with 22, there are an unprecedented number of elite college first
basemen in this year’s draft. The list includes the like of
Arizona
State’s Brett Wallace (playing third
base this season) and Ike Davis, South Carolina’s Justin Smoak,
Miami’s Yonder Alonso and Dennis Raben (playing
outfield this seen),
California’s David Cooper,
Wake
Forest
’s Allan Dykstra and possibly Alvarez, who some clubs think will
eventually move across the diamond from third base. All are potential
first-rounders, or supplemental first-rounders at worst.
It’s easy
to say that the increased offensive output in college baseball this season is
due largely to the compacted schedule and the corresponding need for schools to
use more (and thus lesser) pitching, but this group of hitters is putting up
some impressive numbers—all the while playing under heavy scrutiny from scouts.
Let’s face
it, most scouting directors would prefer to draft a sure-thing college hitter
above all else. Virtually every one in this group of corner infielders is
capable of hitting in the .300-25-100 range one day in the big leagues, and
teams are going to jump at the chance to draft them.
Milwaukee
and its veteran scouting director Jack Zduriencik did that last year in a very
down year for college first basemen (particularly in the junior class), taking
Florida
senior first baseman Matt LaPorta with the seventh overall pick. He did that
despite the Brewers having Prince Fielder firmly entrenched as the franchise
player at first base, Ryan Braun, now playing the left-field position earmarked
for LaPorta, hitting in front of Fielder in the team’s lineup.
The bottom
line is the Brewers evaluated LaPorta as a sure-fire major league run producer
and you don’t pass on a chance to get that type of player. LaPorta is
auditioning in right field in Double-A and was hitting .333-9-32 after 29 games
this spring. He looks like exactly the player
Milwaukee
wanted when it selected him, and a number of other teams are certain to follow
the Brewers lead this year.
Here’s a
quick summary of the top college first basemen in a projected draft order
(we’ll leave Alvarez at third base, for now):
1.
Justin Smoak, South
Carolina
STATS:
.404-19-55, 44 BB, 1.327 OPS
THUMBNAIL:
Has been incredibly hot the second half of the season; his switch-hitting and
defensive ability are big plusses.
2.
Yonder Alonso,
Miami
STATS:
.384-14-50, 53 BB, 1.325 OPS
THUMBNAIL:
Extremely polished and will move very quickly; has been pitched around even in
Miami
’s powerhouse lineup.
3.
Brett Wallace, Arizona
State
STATS:
.404-15-59, 39 BB, 1.271 OPS
THUMBNAIL:
Position projection as he plays third now; think of a lefthanded-hitting Billy
Butler (Royals).
4.
Ike Davis, Arizona
State
STATS:
.401-15-62, 1.295 OPS
THUMBNAIL:
Developed his power potential before a recent rib-muscle injury, also plays
outfield and pitches in low- to mid-90s.
5.
David Cooper, California
STATS:
.389-18-52, 34 BB, 1.236 OPS
THUMBNAIL:
Big increase in power on top of an already polished hitting approach.
6.
Dennis Raben,
Miami
STATS:
.314-6-34, .970 OPS
THUMBNAIL:
Would rank higher based on evaluations from last summer, but hampered this
spring by back problems, only 32 games.
7.
Allan Dykstra,
Wake
Forest
STATS:
.329-14-40, 56 BB, 1.197 OPS
THUMBAIL:
Pitched around more than any hitter in college baseball this season, has also
played some third base this year.
8.
Shane Peterson,
Long
Beach
State
STATS:
.377-7-43, 34 BB, 1.089 OPS
THUMBNAIL:
Longshot for first round as power just starting to develop; Cavernous Blair
Field holds down his power numbers but he’s plenty athletic enough for the
outfield as well.
All of the
first-base prospects should be gone by the time the 76th pick rolls
around, which was when the initial first baseman in the 2006 draft—Tulane’s
Mark Hamilton, by the Cardinals—was selected.
College
Relievers Stand Out
There are
lots of college starting pitchers who have had solid seasons and solidified
their draft status. In addition to Crow and Matusz,
Fresno
State
’s Tanner Scheppers and Tulane’s Shooter Hunt could both sneak into
the top 10 picks and there are others who aren’t far behind.
But there
is a growing number of college prospects who will be drafted very high as
relievers. The concept of spending a first- or second-round pick on a potential
closer is becoming more and more accepted in the draft (check out what closers
are being paid in the majors), and more and more college coaches are taking
their best arms and willingly using them out of the bullpen. Of course, some
pitchers just pitch better in relief and college coaches are adapting to that.
A list of
top relievers, noting that all are righthanders and that there are another half
dozen not on this list of 10 that could easily be included:
1.
Andrew Cashner, Texas
Christian
STATS:
7-3, 2.06, 7 SV, 39 IP/13H/61 SO
THUMBNAIL:
Former JC starter has blossomed in relief, dominant power stuff; fastest riser
in the draft.
2.
Ryan Perry, Arizona
STATS:
4-2, 3.19, 1 SV, 53 IP/54 SO
THUMBNAIL:
Struggled in starting role although has profile starter stuff, easy mid-90s
fastball.
3.
Josh Fields, Georgia
STATS:
1-1, 0.37, 13 SV, 24 IP/44 SO
THUMBNAIL:
Dominant curveball has returned after poor junior season.
4.
Brett Hunter, Pepperdine
STATS:
1-0, 2.77, 13 IP
THUMBNAIL:
Injured as starter, profiles as upper 90s power closer.
5.
Josh Lindblom, Purdue
STATS:
1-2, 3.28, 11 SV, 35 IP/39 SO
THUMBNAIL:
Third-rounder out of high school, much more successful relieving than starting,
FB to 98 mph.
6.
Zach Stewart, Texas
Tech
STATS:
2-2, 6.06, 3 SV, 32 IP/32 SO
THUMBNAIL:
Stats skewed by one disastrous start; has very heavy 92-95 mph sinker.
7.
Carlos Gutierrez,
Miami
STATS:
3-1, 2.67, 10 SV, 33 IP/ 30 SO
THUMBNAIL:
May have best fastball movement in the draft, extremely heavy low-90s heat.
8.
Kyle Weiland, Notre Dame
STATS:
2-1, 3.58, 7 SV, 27 IP/28 SO
THUMBNAIL:
Has three quality pitches in fastball up to 94 mph, slider and changeup.
9.
Bryan Price, Rice
STATS:
2-4, 3.31, 2 SV, 31 IP/42 SO
THUMBNAIL:
Late developing junior, throws 94-96 mph consistently.
10.
Scott Bittle, Mississippi
STATS:
4-1, 1.60, 7 SV, 50 IP/19 H/90 SO
THUMBNAIL:
Uses power slider/split-finger combo with 90 mph fastball to become top college
strikeout pitcher.
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THEME: Two-Way Prospects, What to Do?