Rest vs West study for PG (May 23 - Article written on May 10th)
As the NCAA tourney nears, there is a considerable amount of trepidation out West regarding which deserving teams will be left out of the NCAA tourney in favor of lesser teams from the rest of the country. It is easy for those in the West to simply say that teams like Hawaii, Fresno State, San Diego, San Francisco, UC Irvine deserve to be in the tourney if they don’t win their conferences.
If Fresno State (RPI 44) or Hawaii (37) wins the WAC tourney, they are in, but that will leave the other team sweating. If USF (60) beats Pepperdine (28) in the WCC Championship, both will get in, but if Pepperdine best USF, the Dons will be sweating. San Diego (52) is already sweating because it is extremely rare for the selection committee to take three WCC teams. The Toreros have to be hoping their strength of schedule, their pitching staff, and their end of the season performance is enough. Their pitching staff is good enough to get them to Omaha as is USF’s.
UC Irvine (35) has a higher RPI than Long Beach State (38) but is not as sexy in terms of national appeal. The Anteaters have to be sweating because they are 7-8 in conference and last year Cal Poly was left out with a big time weekend rotation and a 14-7 record in conference play. The Anteaters are 32-19 overall and have played a strong schedule… but if recent history is an indicator, that may not be enough.
Speaking of sexy national appeal… it appears that Stanford (46) may be on the verge of playing their way in, especially if they creep over .500 in the Pac-10. Washington (49) has national appeal with projected 1st round pick Tim Lincecum taking the ball on Friday’s. But since Cal was left out last year with a record over .500 in the Pac-10, nothing can be taken for granted. There is no Pac-10 tournament.
It would be better if the bubble teams from the West presented their argument based upon direct comparison of competition between the highest RPI rated teams from the West vs. the highest RPI rated teams from the rest of the nation.
That is exactly what Joe Della Cella has done. Joe is a former classmate of mine in the University of San Francisco Sport Management master’s program and is currently the director of baseball operations at USF. The forthcoming information was provided to me by Joe… and frankly, it is quite eye opening… at least the teams in the West hope it is.
There are many justifications people use to explain the disparity of teams in the NCAA tourney from the West. Outside of running right to the RPI as the main justification (and by the way, it is widely acknowledged that the RPI is a flawed measurement that is clearly skewed to teams in the ACC/SEC/Big 12/C-USA) many point to win-loss records.
The problem for teams in the West is that there are very few bad teams in that region. Non-conference series and midweek games are played against good teams. In conference teams beat up on each other rather than hammering the bottom third of each conference. Naturally the win-loss records of the top teams in the West are going to not be as gaudy as many of the top teams in the East.
The reason for making this study known is simple… if the selection committee does a better job, the whole product (that being the NCAA baseball tourney) is better.
-------------------------------------------------------------
The Rest vs. The West – A comparative study
- by Joe Della Cella, University of San Francisco
A recent formula to evaluate the strength of teams in collegiate athletics is the Ratings Point Index (RPI). A number of factors go into an RPI of a team, but it focuses on three main filters. The three are listed below:
1) 25% - A team’s win/loss record
2) 50% - Opponents’ win/loss record
3) 25% - Opponent’s opponents’ win/loss record
The RPI is one of the biggest factors, if not the biggest factor in determining which teams earn at-large bids to the NCAA D-I baseball tournament.
When looking at the sport of college baseball, there has been a lot of recent discussion of why West Coast teams are undervalued in the RPI rankings, and subsequently receive fewer bids when the NCAA Regional Committee makes their field. It appears from first glance that “the Regionals” are heavily represented by teams in four main conferences in the South & Midwest.
The conferences for this study from the Rest are the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), the South Eastern Conference (SEC), the Big XII, and Conference USA. Whereas conferences in the West for this study are the Pacific 10 (Pac-10), West Coast Conference (WCC), Big West, and the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) get many fewer teams.
This study looks at the 2006 season as of May 9th, 2006; just before the season winds down and regional selections are made. To determine if the grumblings from the West are legitimate, a look at the aforementioned four conferences in each region is presented. The simplest form of competition, head-to-head records, is the measurement.
Rest West
ACC Pacific 10
SEC WCC
Big XII Big West
Conference USA WAC
To guard against teams beating up on inferior opponents, only teams from these eight conferences which are in the Top 60 in RPI, according to the college sports website www.warrennolan.com, will be recorded.
Bottom Line:
What was the outcome when the elite of the four big conferences from the Midwest and South played the elite from the four big conferences on the West Coast? Read on…
Observations
· Warren Nolan Top 60 RPI =
33 teams from ACC, SEC, C-USA, Big 12
14 teams from Pac 10, WCC, Big West, WAC
· Warren Nolan Top 40 RPI =
25 teams from ACC, SEC, C-USA, Big 12
8 teams from Pac 10, WCC, Big West, WAC
· Warren Nolan Top 20 RPI =
17 teams from ACC, SEC, C-USA, Big 12
1 team from Pac 10, WCC, Big West, WAC
Results
· Top 10 RPI - The Rest vs. The West = 9-13
· Top 20 RPI - The Rest vs. The West = 19-23
· Top 30 RPI - The Rest vs. The West = 22-29
· Top 40 RPI - The Rest vs. The West = 25-32
Bottom Line Answer:
Top 60 RPI Teams - The Rest vs. The West = 29-43
(only Georgia, Miami, and Oklahoma are over .500 vs. West Top 60 RPI)
· SEC vs. the West - Teams in Top 60 = 7-9
· Big 12 vs. the West - Teams in Top 60 = 13-16
· ACC vs. the West - Teams in Top 60 = 2-4
· C- USA vs. the West - Teams in Top 60 = 7-14
· The Rest at home vs. West = .520 Winning % (13-12)
· The Rest on road @ West = .357 Winning % (15-27)
· The Rest vs. West at neutral sites = .200 Winning % (1-4)
Question: Despite the West still having a better record…
* How many of The Rest's will make the final 64?
* How many of The West's will make the final 64?
Answer:
Track Record shows over 25 will make it from the Rest
Track Record also shows that around 10 will make it from the West
Does that seem like the selection committee is picking the best teams?
Questions can be directed to:
Joseph Della Cella
University of San Francisco Baseball Operations
415-422-2933
jddellacella@usfca.edu