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TCU’S CASHNER IS NO. 1 SURPRISE
Friday May 16, 2008
The baseball draft is the most inexact science of all the drafts in the major professional sports. It has been littered through the years with first-round picks who weren’t even on the radar of teams’ scouting staffs entering their draft year.

There is no classic example to illustrate the point more than the Minnesota Twins’ selection of Mt. Vernon Nazarene (Ohio) righthander Tim Belcher with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1983 draft. Belcher was unknown to most teams, including the Twins, little more than two months before that year’s draft.

Baseball scouting has become much more sophisticated over the last 25 years, but this year’s draft should still have a few surprises in terms of how prospective draft boards were lined up in January, prior to the start of the 2008 season.

No player has improved his stock this spring more than Texas Christian righthander Andrew Cashner, who has a legitimate shot of being selected in the top half of the first round. The 6-foot-5, 195-pound Cashner isn’t exactly an unknown as he’s been drafted three times before, including in the 29th round by the Chicago Cubs a year ago. But he gave no indication of being an early-round pick, let alone a first-rounder, at the outset of the 2008 season.

A transfer from Angelina (Texas) Junior College, Cashner was earmarked last fall for a starting job in the TCU rotation and was throwing 89-92 mph with an average slider in that role—nothing to get scouts excited about. But when he was installed as a closer to start the 2008 season, his prospects for the draft turned around almost overnight. He soon began pumping 97-98 mph fastball in short bursts (he reportedly hit 100 in a game against Baylor), and the velocity on his slider spiked. Suddenly, he became the scourge of the scouting community.

Cashner’s record this spring speaks to his dominance. In 43 innings spread over 25 appearances, he had allowed just 14 hits (.104 opponent batting average) and struck out 65.

Several other players have seen a pronounced surge in this year’s draft—like Cashner, many are college closers who have either rediscovered themselves in a new role or seen a sharp increase in velocity in that capacity.

“The thing you’ve got to always remember about the draft,” said an American League scouting director, “is that it is in June, not January. A lot of things can change over the course of a season. Just as there were players in January we thought would be first-round picks and have faded, there are guys who we never thought would be early-round picks in January that have emerged as top prospects.”

In contrast to Cashner and some of the other fast risers, some notable players have fallen this spring, perhaps none so precipitously as Louisiana Tech righthander Luke Burnett. He projected as a likely first-round pick off an all-star season as a closer last summer in the Cape Cod League, but never got untracked this season when he was moved to the Louisiana Tech rotation. His record says it all: 0-4, 8.41 with 32 walks and only 30 strikeouts in 41 innings.

We’ve unveiled a list of the top 250 prospects for this year’s draft elsewhere on the PG Crosschecker website, and our take on the 10 biggest surprises on the list from the college ranks—at least from the standpoint of where the players stood at the start of the 2008 season, and where they may now be drafted—is noted below.

The high school ranks also have seen their share of surprises, none more than Texas righthander Ross Seaton, California outfielder Zach Collier and Washington, D.C. lefthander Danny Hultzen. But we’ll save that list for another day.
Rank Player Pos. School Previously Drafted Projected
1 *Andrew Cashner rhp Texas Christian Cubs ’07 (29) 1st
2 Jake Jefferies c UC Davis Never drafted 2nd/3rd
3 *Zach Stewart rhp Texas Tech Never drafted 1st/supplemental
4 Brett Moorhouse rhp Indian River (Fla.) JC Never drafted 3rd
5 *Bryan Price rhp Rice Never drafted 1st/supplemental
6 Aaron Pribanic rhp Nebraska Never drafted 2nd/3rd
7 *Pete Andrelczyk rhp Coastal Carolina Orioles ’07 (32) 3rd/4th
8 Andrew Liebel rhp Long Beach State Never drafted 2nd/3rd
9 Richard Bleier lhp Florida Gulf Coast Never drafted 3rd/4th
10 *Carlos Gutierrez rhp Miami Never drafted Supplemental/2nd
* Used primarily as closer in 2008
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
DRAFT 2008
Daily Schedule   Updated: 5/16/08 7:30pm
Top 250 Draft Prospects
 | 1 - 50 | 51 - 100 | 101 - 150 | 151 - 200 | 201 - 250 |     Updated: 5/16/08 7:30pm
State By State Previews with Scouting Reports    Updated: 5/16/08 1:30pm
Updated State By State Follow Lists    Updated: 5/16/08 1:30pm
Projected Top 50 with Comments      Updated: 5/12/08 12:00pm
Preliminary State By State Follow Lists    Updated: 5/10/08 7:30pm
Top 100    Updated: 5/8/08 3:50pm
Signing Bonuses: Top 10 Rounds
2006, 2007    Posted: 5/5/08 10:30am
 
PERFECT GAME PRE-DRAFT SHOWCASE
Local Boy Re-Establishes Himself
By David Rawnsley
 
The Perfect Game Pre-Draft Showcase, held Wednesday at PG’s home base in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, was one of Perfect Game’s original events back in the early 1990s. It was created as a vehicle to expose the top Iowa high school players, whose high school seasons didn’t begin until the summer, to the pro scouting community before the draft.

The event has evolved include players from all over the country. The 2008 edition included players from diverse locations such as New York and Pennsylvania, Florida and Georgia, and Washington and British Columbia—and, of course, Iowa. Current major league all-stars Carl Crawford (Texas) of the Tampa Bay Rays and Brian McCann (Georgia) of the Atlanta Braves are among the past standouts.
Perfect Game Pre-Draft Showcase   Posted: 5/15/08 2:00pm
 
Player Spotlight: Jarret Martin
By Patrick Ebert
 
Bakersfield, California high school left-handed pitcher Jarret Martin entered the year as one of the more promising young lefties in all of amateur baseball. He was most impressive at last summer’s Area Code Games, quickly making a strong impression on such a large, national stage by showing advanced command of a solid three-pitch arsenal that includes an 88-92 mph fastball and a very sharp curveball.

Unfortunately things haven’t gone as well for Martin this spring. It’s not like the talent has disappeared, as he has retained his usual velocity on his fastball and the break on his curveball, but he has struggled with his mechanics, which has led to him struggling with his command. Scouts started to lose interest in Martin as a premium, early round pick, but his prowess with a bat in his hand has started to draw the scouting contingent back to his games, as he recently broke his conference’s home run record.
Player Spotlight: Jarret Martin   Posted: 5/16/2008 2:15pm
High School National Rankings
 
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#1 - Gerrit Cole
RHP
6-3 190
Santa Ana, CA
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#2 - Tim Beckham
SS
6-2 191
Kennesaw, GA
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#3 - Kyle Skipworth
C
6-3 195
Riverside, CA
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#4 - Tim Melville
RHP
6-5 205
Wentzville, MO
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#5 - Eric Hosmer
1B
6-4 210
Cooper City, FL
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#6 - Ethan Martin
3B
6-3 200
Toccoa, GA
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#7 - Harold Martinez
SS
6-3 185
Miami, FL
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#8 - Aaron Hicks
OF
6-1 160
Long Beach, CA
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#9 - Michael Palazzone
RHP
6-3 190
Marrieta, GA
Class of 2008
Top 10, Class of 2008
#10 - Alex Meyer
RHP
6-7 200
Greensburg, IN
Class of 2008
 
HS Class of 2008: Top 1620+ Prospects      Updated: 4/24/08 5:00pm
Top 1620+ 2008 High School Prospects        Updated: 4/24/08 5:00pm
2008 Prospects - State By State    Updated: 4/24/08 5:00pm
2008 Prospects - State By State Rankings    Updated: 4/24/08 5:00pm
2008 College Commitments List     Updated: 4/24/08 5:00pm
 
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COLUMNISTS
Allan Simpson David Rawnsley
Jerry Ford Patrick Ebert

CRACK OF THE BAT
Crack of the Bat    Updated: 5/15/2008 2:00pm
THE RUMOR MILL: WHO'S HOT

NEW CONTENT

Draft 2008
Daily Schedule

Top 250 Draft Prospects:
1 - 50       |  51 - 100    |  101 - 150
151 - 200 |  201 - 250  |
   Updated: 5/16/08 7:30pm

2008 Draft Columns
Player Spotlight: Jarret Martin
Archives
  Posted: 5/16/08 2:15pm
Draft 2008
State-by-State Previews
Updated State By State Follow Lists
   Updated: 5/16/08 1:30pm
Crack of the Bat
DRAFT PROJECTION: Cost and Demand
  Posted: 5/15/2008 2:00pm
JUCO Notebook
  Posted: 5/15/2008 2:00pm
JUCO Top 25 Teams
  Posted: 5/15/2008 2:00pm
David Rawnsley's Draft Column
Perfect Game Pre-Draft Showcase
  Posted: 5/15/08 2:00pm
High School Notebook
  Posted: 5/14/08 8:30am
High School Baseball 2008
Top 50 Teams     Updated: 5/13/08 12:00pm
College Baseball Weekly Wrap-Up
  Posted: 5/13/08 9:00am
College Baseball 2008
Top 50 Teams     Updated: 5/12/08 12:20pm
Draft 2008
Projected Top 50 with Comments
   Updated: 5/12/08 12:00pm
Draft 2008
State By State Follow Lists 
Updated: 5/10/08 7:30pm
Draft 2008
Top 100 
Posted: 5/8/08 3:50pm
Draft 2008
Signing Bonuses: 2006 
Signing Bonuses: 2007 
Updated: 5/5/08 10:30am
Draft 2008
Daily Schedule
Order of Selection
Mechanics of the Draft
  Posted: 5/01/08 3:00pm
Draft 2008
Top 100 Prospects, Junior College     Posted: 4/28/08 11:15am
HS Class of 2008: National Rankings
Top 1620+ Prospects
State By State
State By State Rankings
  Updated: 4/24/08 5:00pm
Crack of the Bat: Danny Coulombe
  Posted: 4/24/2008 10:00am
Regional Chase 2008
  Posted: 4/22/2008 11:15pm
2008 College Commitments List
  Posted: 4/18/08 4:30pm
College Baseball Weekly Wrap-Up
  Posted: 4/9/08 9:00am