San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg has been a near-lock to become the No. 1 pick in the 2009 baseball draft ever since he catapulted onto the national stage with a masterful 23-strikeout, one-hit shutout of Utah more than a year ago.
He may be the most pre-determined lock in the draft’s 44-year history, and ranks as a more sure bet to go first overall than any of the great arms the college game has auditioned for the draft through the years like Texas righthander Burt Hooton (1971), Arizona State lefthander Floyd Bannister (1976), Louisiana State righthander Ben McDonald (1989), Southern California righthander Mark Prior (2001) and Vanderbilt lefthander David Price (2007). Of that group, Bannister, McDonald and Price went No. 1, while Hooton and Prior went second—yet were clearly the elite arms in their draft class.
All that remains is for the Washington Nationals, who earned the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft by finishing with the poorest record in the big leagues a year ago, to pull the trigger and officially make Strasburg their guy. Every indication is they will, though Strasburg’s asking price will be steep—and could even shatter the record deal given to Prior by the Chicago Cubs eight years ago. Prior signed a major-league contract that guaranteed him $10.5 million, yet his once-promising career has been derailed by an assortment of arm injuries.
With precision command of three above-average pitches, including a fastball that has routinely peaked this spring at 103 mph, Strasburg is so advanced for a college pitcher that scouts have shown little hesitancy in saying that he could move directly to the big leagues. If that were to pass, Strasburg would become only the 21st draft pick in history to bypass the minor leagues completely—and the first since Xavier Nady made his professional debut as a member of the San Diego Padres in 2000. Of the vaunted quintet of college pitchers that preceded him, only Hooton advanced right to the big leagues.
Strasburg’s dominance at the college level is reflected in his 9-0, 1.54 record along with 13 walks and 135 strikeouts in 70 innings. He is on pace to set NCAA pitching records for single-season strikeouts and strikeouts per nine innings.
Until a couple of weeks ago, there was a wide gap between Strasburg and any other player the Seattle Mariners were considering with the second selection in a draft pool that falls short in talent from past drafts—notably a year ago. But suddenly, all may not be lost for the Mariners.
Though they would understandably like the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Strasburg to fall into their laps, the Mariners may end up getting the next best thing to Strasburg in this draft—a big power pitcher who wasn’t really on the radar as a potential No. 2 pick entering the 2009 season.
Tanner Scheppers was largely a forgotten man in this draft after going unsigned as a second-round pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2008, and electing not to return to college for his senior year at Fresno State. But only a year ago, Scheppers was a serious candidate to be one of the first selections in the 2008 draft before he suffered an untimely shoulder injury in May that forced him to the sidelines for the next three months. Not only did that setback compromise his draft standing as he fell to the 48th pick overall, but it cost him the chance to be part of an unlikely national championship as his Fresno State teammates rode an improbable path to a College World Series title without Scheppers. Until his injury, he had been the team’s unquestioned ace.
Scheppers was dominant as a Fresno State junior with a fastball that peaked at 99 mph and a knee-buckling power curveball. But there was concern that his shoulder injury might compromise his superior stuff, and there were few expectations entering the 2009 season that Scheppers would be a serious candidate for this year’s draft.
But shortly after rejecting an offer from the Pirates last August, he signed on with the St. Paul Saints of the independent American Association. He hoped to prove to scouts in a handful of starts for the Saints leading up to the 2009 draft that his shoulder was as good as new, that he warranted the $2-million-plus signing bonus he would almost certainly have received a year ago.
But scouts haven’t had to wait until the start of the American Association season to get a close-up look at Scheppers. He has been working out in California this spring, throwing side sessions and scrimmage games at Golden West College, and has been so impressive over the past couple of weeks that in the minds of some teams has vaulted past every player in the 2009 draft—with Strasburg being the notable exception. Scheppers’ fastball has been clocked up to 97-98 mph and scouts who have seen him say his power breaking ball has been the equal of Strasburg’s.
The trick now for Scheppers will be to take his stuff into game competition. The American Association regular season opens on May 14. He’ll also have to withstand the inevitable medical scrutiny on his shoulder that the Mariners (and other teams) will insist on to assure there is no lingering effects from the shoulder issues that killed his draft hopes a year ago.
With few premium power bats and power arms in this draft, Scheppers couldn’t have surfaced as a legitimate candidate to go No. 2 overall behind Strasburg at a better time.
New Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik was most recently the scouting director for the Milwaukee Brewers and was notorious for his pursuit of power bats and power arms in his drafts. In that regard, the hard-throwing Scheppers would seem to be made-to-order for the rebuilding Mariners.
Initially, Southern California shortstop Grant Green and Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson were seen as the logical candidates to fall in line behind Strasburg, but neither has overly distinguished himself on a consistent basis this spring. Green’s power has been spotty while the lanky Gibson, with a fastball at 92-93 mph (a full 8-10 mph slower than Strasburg’s heater), simply doesn’t throw hard enough to justify the kind of signing bonus that will be paid to a player selected one pick after Strasburg.
Scheppers not only may be the answer, but he is actually one of two wild cards in this draft who could significantly spice up the proceedings. Former Missouri righthander Aaron Crow, the ninth overall pick a year ago, has a near-identical story-line to Scheppers’. He re-enters the draft after failing to reach agreement with the Nationals. Crow, whose fastball has been clocked as high as 97 mph, also elected to forego his senior year of college by signing on with the American Association’s Fort Worth Cats.
It’s entirely possible Crow could surge up draft boards, too, much like Scheppers has done, by showcasing similar stuff to what he did a year ago. To date, he has kept a lower profile than Scheppers, but both he and Scheppers were scheduled to pitch in scrimmages on Monday, which will undoubtedly attract large numbers of scouts.
While it remains to be seen how Scheppers and Crow will impact the 2009 draft when all the dust has settled, there has otherwise been relatively little movement this spring among the candidates expected to be selected in the first 10 picks—unlike the next group of 10. Strasburg has been the unquestioned No. 1 prospect all along, but every other name in the accompanying list of the projected top 10 selections needs little introduction.
PG Crosschecker has unveiled its master list of the Top 250 Prospects elsewhere on the Perfect Game website, but here’s a sneak peek of how we see the top 10 unfolding: