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The 2010 high-school draft class has been hailed far and wide as a potential bumper crop. There was considerable hope that the college class would be every bit as fruitful, both at the top end and through the middle rounds.
But that notion may be sliding away as many of the top players in the college sophomore class—essentially the players projected to be early-round picks a year from now—have not performed as expected.
No player may have slipped more than North Carolina righthander Matt Harvey, who began the 2009 season ranked by PG Crosschecker as the nation’s No. 1 sophomore prospect. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound Harvey, an unsigned third-round pick of the Los Angeles Angels in the 2007 draft, began the season as the No. 3 starter in a talented Tar Heels rotation, and reeled off three wins in quick order, including one in relief.
But Harvey struggled thereafter, particularly with his command, and soon lost his spot in the rotation. Though his stuff, including a fastball that pops the mitt at 95-96 mph, was still impressive and he racked up 49 strikeouts in his first 36 innings this spring, he had also allowed 21 walks and given up 41 hits, leading to a 4-1, 6.75 record.
Of most concern, scouts say Harvey no longer has the same easy, fluid arm action that made him a premium prospect out of high school—and even a year ago as a UNC freshman. With an inconsistent delivery, his breaking ball and command have suffered.
PG Crosschecker is taking a mid-season look this week at the top players in each college class, and our focus today is on the sophomore class. We looked at the top freshmen on Tuesday, and will break down the top juniors on Thursday and the top seniors on Friday. Our primary consideration is simply identifying those players at each position that are performing the best to this point of the college season.
We’ve also identified, on the accompanying list, the top 10 performers overall in this year’s sophomore class. Additionally, we’ve updated our take on the top 10 prospects in the sophomore class—essentially the players we believe will be the top college draft picks in 2010.
With Harvey’s spot atop the sophomore clearly in doubt because of his disappointing performance and the concern about his arm action, it’s very much up in the air now who ascends to the No. 1 spot on the college sophomore list. That’s in stark contrast to the other three classes, which all have a clearly-defined No. 1 prospect.
San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg, the overwhelming favorite to be the first selection in this year’s draft, is head and shoulders the top talent in the junior class. Similarly, UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole is No. 1 in the freshman class, while Mississippi righthander Scott Bittle ranks No. 1 among seniors. Interestingly, both Cole and Bittle were unsigned draft picks of the New York Yankees a year ago—Cole in the first round, Bittle in the second.
Not only has Harvey’s stock slipped as a sophomore, but so has the apparent worth of numerous other highly-touted players in his class. Tennessee outfielder Kentrail Davis, ranked No. 2 at the outset of the 2009 season, has not performed to the level predicted of him as his impressive combination of speed and power have not been on display on a consistent basis. He has hit just .286 for the Volunteers, with five homers and three stolen bases. Others have not stepped to the forefront as expected, either because of subpar performance or injuries.
So who’s the new No. 1?
That’s a tough call, but on the basis of the way he has performed to date as the ace pitcher for No. 1-ranked Louisiana State, along with his big, physical; frame and the impressive stuff and command he has displayed, righthander Anthony Ranaudo has been anointed the new No. 1.
Obviously, a lot of water will pass under the bridge between now and next year’s draft, but the 6-foot-7, 225-pound Ranaudo has been extremely impressive. He has gone 3-2, 2.68, but the more telling numbers are his 75 strikeouts in 50 innings, along with just 19 walks and 37 hits allowed.
It was evident from the day that Ranaudo turned down an 11th-round offer in the 2007 draft from the Texas Rangers and set foot on the LSU campus that he would soon emerge as one of the best arms in college baseball.
His impact wasn’t evident as a freshman because he was sidelined for nearly two months with elbow tendonitis and worked in only 12 innings all season. But he didn’t surrender a run and earned his only win of the season at a critical juncture, in the 2008 Southeastern Conference tournament. Because of LSU’s appearance in the College World Series, Ranaudo was late arriving in the Cape Cod League last summer and with his workload also closely monitored, he ended up working only 19 innings while appearing in 10 games, including starts in his final two outings. He went 0-2, 6.63 with eight walks and 22 strikeouts, and showcased only flashes of his immense potential.
He has been as good as new since the start of his sophomore season, with a fastball back to its customary mid-90s level. He has polished mechanics for an extra-large young pitcher and is able to maintain his velocity while commanding all his pitches well.
Ranaudo was ranked No. 16 in PG Crosschecker’s ranking of the nation’s top 100 sophomores to begin the 2009 season, but he has clearly elevated his game to another level thus far this season. Combined with the disappointing showing of several of the players ranked ahead of him, he has surged to the top of the list.
As good as Ranaudo has been, he has not performed to the level of some of his fellow sophomores—notably Texas A&M outfielder/lefthander Brooks Raley and Stanford righthander Drew Storen, who are both eligible for this year’s draft and have helped themselves immeasurably with superior 2009 seasons. In fact, Raley and Storen may have surged squarely into the first round.
That would represent an impressive climb up draft boards for both, as Storen was ranked No. 32 on the list of top sophomores, and Raley was No. 86. Initially, scouts were wary of the smaller frames of both players, but the 6-foot, 180-pound Raley and the 6-1, 175-pound Storen have largely eased the concerns that scouts have over their smaller statures with dominating performances this spring. Of the 19 players on the list of 100 who are eligible for this year’s draft, they are the two who have clearly helped themselves the most.
Raley is the ace pitcher on a deep and talented Texas A&M staff, plays center field when not pitching and also hits leadoff for the Aggies. Not only has he hit .350-1-14 with 20 stolen bases, but he has gone 6-1, 2.13 with 61 strikeouts in 55 innings.
He has more than his share of supporters at both positions, but his greater upside, for the purpose of professional baseball, appears to be as a slap-hitting center fielder in the mould of former Texas A&M first-rounder Jason Tyner. Raley’s stuff and command also make him a candidate for the first couple of rounds as a pitcher. He has an average fastball and an above-average slider, and depends mostly on pitchability for his success.
Storen has had few opportunities to pitch with a game on the line this spring as Stanford has struggled to play at even a .500 clip, but has nonetheless gone 3-0, 1.31 with four saves. In 21 innings, he has walked just one and struck out 34. He has been dominant as Stanford’s closer with command of a fastball that has topped out at 96 and a breaking ball that is often untouchable.
Here’s our take on the Top 10 players overall in the sophomore class at the mid-season point of the 2009 season:
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
School |
Accomplishment |
| 1. |
*Brooks Raley |
of-lhp |
Texas A&M |
.350-1-14, 20 SB; 6-1, 2.13, 55 IP/61 SO |
| 2. |
*Drew Storen |
rhp |
Stanford |
3-0, 1.31, 4 SV, 21 IP/1 BB/34 SO |
| 3. |
Bryce Brentz |
of-rhp |
Middle Tennessee |
.448-16-40; 3-2, 3.98, 54 IP/37 SO |
| 4. |
Jarrett Parker |
of |
Virginia |
.409-11-43, 56 R, 15 2B, 14 SB |
| 5. |
Addison Reed |
rhp |
San Diego State |
0-0, 0.51, 12 SV, 15 IP/3 BB/20 SO |
| 6. |
Tyler Holt |
of |
Florida State |
.418-5-20, 45 R, 33 BB, 15 SB |
| 7. |
Deck McGuire |
rhp |
Georgia Tech |
5-0, 2.73, 53 IP/66 SO |
| 8. |
*Tim Kelley |
rhp |
Wichita State |
3-2, 1.75, 50 IP/13 BB/65 SO |
| 9. |
Anthony Ranaudo |
rhp |
Louisiana State |
3-2, 2.68, 50 IP/75 SO |
| 10. |
Alex Wimmers |
rhp |
Ohio State |
6-1, 3.32, 57 IP/75 SO |
| *Eligible for 2009 draft |
Here’s an updated look at the Top 10 prospects in the sophomore class for the 2010 draft. The player’s pre-season ranking is noted in parentheses:
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
School |
Accomplishment |
| 1. |
Anthony Ranaudo |
rhp |
Louisiana State (16) |
3-2, 2.68, 50 IP/75 SO |
| 2. |
Brandon Workman |
rhp |
Texas (3) |
3-3, 2.74, 46 IP/46 SO |
| 3. |
Kyle Blair |
rhp |
San Diego (8) |
3-2, 3.13, 55 IP/62 SO |
| 4. |
Drew Pomeranz |
lhp |
Mississippi (4) |
3-1, 4.01, 34 IP/34 SO |
| 5. |
Derek Dietrich |
ss |
Georgia Tech (5) |
.342-4-28, 35 R |
| 6. |
Deck McGuire |
rhp |
Georgia Tech (15) |
5-0, 2.73, 53 IP/66 SO |
| 7. |
Yasmani Grandal |
c |
Miami, Fla. (19) |
.296-10-27 |
| 8. |
Daniel Renken |
rhp |
Cal State Fullerton (23) |
4-2, 2.60, 52 IP/12 BB/44 SO |
| 9. |
Matt Harvey |
rhp |
North Carolina (1) |
4-1, 6.75, 36 IP/49 SO |
| 10. |
*Drew Storen |
rhp |
Stanford (32) |
3-0, 1.31, 4 SV, 21 IP/1 BB/34 SO |
| *Eligible for 2009 draft |
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