In two of the last three drafts, the biggest holdouts have been University of Missouri pitchers. Not only did both refuse to sign at the time they were selected, but they chose to forego their senior seasons of college and signed with the Fort Worth Cats of the independent American Association.
The career paths of Max Scherzer and Aaron Crow, however, diverge at that point as a change in draft rules between the time each was drafted enabled one (Scherzer) to continue to negotiate and eventually sign with the team that drafted him, but forced the other (Crow) to abandon negotiations and re-enter the 2009 draft.
Scherzer, the 11th overall pick in 2006, held out for 51 weeks before finally agreeing to a major-league deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks that guaranteed him $4 million, including a signing bonus of $3 million. He debuted in the big leagues in 2008.
Crow was selected by the Washington Nationals with the ninth overall pick in last year’s draft but, unlike Scherzer, his negotiating rights with the Nats lapsed when he didn’t strike an agreement by the new Aug. 15 signing deadline. He was left with no recourse but to re-enter the 2009 draft, and yet he’s still expected to be drafted in roughly the same position as he was last June. In the meantime, he’s scheduled to make several starts in independent ball leading up to the draft.
The plight of Scherzer and Crow in the draft has brought the national spotlight to the state of baseball in Missouri, which has basked in the success of the Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals through the years while the game at the amateur level has been a virtual wasteland until this decade.
As part of our comprehensive preview coverage of the draft classes of 2009, 2010 and 2011 that is available elsewhere on the PG Crosschecker site, we’re taking a close-up look at several states, both from a historical and current day draft perspective. Our focus today is on Missouri and the impact it has made in recent years.
Counting Crow and Scherzer, Missouri has produced seven first-round draft picks since 2002. By contrast, not a single first-rounder came from a Missouri high school or college from 1986-2001.
Moreover, the talent flow may not slow any time soon as this year’s draft could be the most fruitful ever for the Show-Me State as Crow, his former Missouri teammate Kyle Gibson and high school righthander Jacob Turner are all solid bets to be drafted in the first half of the first round.
Another Missouri righthander, sophomore Nick Tepesch, is projected to be a first-round pick in 2010, which means the Tigers, one of college baseball’s emerging national powers, could produce four first-rounders in a five-year stretch. Missouri hasn’t monopolized all the college pitching talent in the state, either, as underappreciated Missouri State has produced two first-rounders and a supplemental first-rounder of its own since 2001.
The state’s current run of draft dominance is in stark contrast to the first 37 years of the draft when Missouri colleges didn’t produce a single first-round pick. The high-school ranks didn’t do appreciably better as they yielded just seven first-rounders—two of whom were drafted from out-of-state colleges.
Even now, Missouri doesn’t rank among the nation’s best talent-producing states. Over the five-year period from 2004-08, 115 draft picks attended Missouri high schools. That figure ranks 18th nationally overall—just ahead of Mississippi and Colorado.
It’s apparent that there’s still not enough talent in the Missouri high-school ranks to feed the state’s Division I college programs. Missouri is expected to dominate the 2009 draft—and yet every top prospect on the Tigers roster is an out-of-state player. The accompanying list of the state’s 10 best prospects for the 2009 draft also includes only one high school player.
But Missouri’s high-school ranks, not just the college programs, are beginning to turn heads in the scouting community as the state boasts a premium prep pitching prospect for the second year in a row. In 2008, the focus was on Wentzville Holt righthander Tim Melville, a consensus first-round talent who slipped to the fourth round for signability reasons. This year, the big catch is Turner (for PG Crosschecker’s David Rawnsley’s scouting profile on Turner, see below).
Turner, the nation’s fifth-ranked high school prospect for the 2009 draft, elected to follow in the footsteps of Melville by committing to the University of North Carolina.
As it turned out, Melville never reached Chapel Hill as the Royals interceded with a $1.25 million bonus—the second-largest ever for a fourth-round pick. But in keeping with some of his Missouri draft peers, Melville held out until the Aug. 15 signing deadline before agreeing to sign with Kansas City.
For all the inroads that Missouri has made as a viable talent-producing state in the last decade, the state’s two highest draft picks on record were produced more than 25 years ago.
Righthander Roy Branch (Beaumont HS, St. Louis) was the fifth overall pick in 1971 while lefthander Bryan Oelkers, who prepped at a St. Louis high school, was the fourth overall pick in 1982 out of Wichita State. (For a list of the top 10 draft picks ever produced by Missouri, see below).
From the player’s backgrounds to their physical profile to their overpowering stuff, the resumes of Missouri’s top college and high school prospects for this year’s draft (Gibson and Turner) are eerily similar to the state’s corresponding top prospects in 2008 (Crow and Melville). It remains to be seen, of course, if the same contractual/signability issues that impacted the drafting and signing of Crow and Melville will play a vital role in the drafting and signing of Gibson and Turner.
Here’s how we see the top 10 prospects from Missouri for the 2009 draft. For the purposes of this exercise, we have not included Crow, but he certainly would rank high on the list—probably even No. 1—if he was included.
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
School |
Hometown |
Projected Round |
| 1. |
Kyle Gibson |
RHP |
U. of Missouri |
Greenfield, Ind. |
1st |
| 2. |
Jacob Turner |
RHP |
Westminster Christian Academy |
St. Charles |
1st |
| 3. |
Trevor Coleman |
C |
U. of Missouri |
Dripping Springs, Texas |
2nd |
| 4. |
Aaron Senne |
OF |
U. of Missouri |
Rochester, Minn. |
3rd |
| 5. |
Tim Clubb |
RHP |
Missouri State U. |
Eureka |
5th-8th |
| 6. |
Dave Sever |
RHP |
St. Louis U. |
Burr Ridge, Ill. |
5th-8th |
| 7. |
Greg Folgia |
OF |
U. of Missouri |
North Wales, Pa. |
6th-10th |
| 8. |
Ryan Lollis |
OF |
U. of Missouri |
Houston, Texas |
6th-10th |
| 9. |
Matt Sample |
RHP |
Crowder JC |
Pea Ridge, Ark. |
6th-15th |
| 10. |
Buddy Baumann |
LHP |
Missouri State U. |
Rogersville |
8th-12th |
SCOUTING REPORT / Jacob Turner, rhp
Westminster Christian Academy, St. Charles, Mo.
While Turner isn’t the hardest thrower in the 2009 draft class, he probably fits the “power pitcher” profile better than any other hurler. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound Turner has trimmed down over the last year, mostly in his lower half, and has a square-framed build that should continue to get stronger. He has an effortless delivery with very good gather over the rubber and smooth explosion to the plate. Turner’s fastball is “only” 91-94 mph at present, but it jumps on hitters due to the ease of Turner’s delivery and has excellent heavy life at the plate. Turner can pitch to top-level hitters right now using just his fastball with his combination of velocity, life and deception. His curveball is a solid second offering in the upper 70s with good spin and big, sweeping break. He also has the workings of a solid changeup. Turner has dominated at every level during the past year, including striking out five out of the six hitters he faced at last summer’s Aflac All-American Game. He also struck out 19 in 10 innings with USA Baseball’s junior national team during the summer. As a junior at Westminster Christian Academy, he went 8-1, 1.45. He signed with North Carolina. Interestingly, the top 2008 prospect from Missouri, righthander Tim Melville, was a very similar pitcher and prospect and also committed to the Tar Heels before eventually signing a $1.25 million contract with the Royals.
--DAVID RAWNSLEY
MISSOURI : A HISTORICAL DRAFT PERSPECTIVE
The state’s 10 highest picks in the draft’s 44-year history:
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
School |
Hometown |
Year |
Team (Pick) |
Bonus |
| 1. |
Roy Branch |
RHP |
Beaumont HS |
St. Louis |
1971 |
Royals (5) |
$50,000 |
| 2. |
Ross Detwiler |
LHP |
Missouri State U. |
Wentzville |
2007 |
Nationals (6) |
$2,150,000 |
| 3. |
Aaron Crow |
RHP |
U. of Missouri |
Wakarusa, Kan. |
2008 |
Nationals (9) |
did not sign |
| 4. |
Max Scherzer |
RHP |
U. of Missouri |
Chesterfield |
2006 |
D’backs (11) |
$3,000,000 |
| 5. |
Jim Foor |
LHP |
McCluer HS |
St. Louis |
1967 |
Tigers (15) |
$35,000 |
| 6. |
Scott Elbert |
LHP |
Seneca HS |
Seneca |
2004 |
Dodgers (17) |
$1,575,000 |
| 7. |
Brett Sinkbeil |
RHP |
Missouri State U. |
Sand Springs, Okla. |
2006 |
Marlins (19) |
$1,525,000 |
| 8. |
Rick Sutcliffe |
RHP |
Van Horn HS |
Kansas City |
1974 |
Dodgers (21) |
$50,000 |
| 9. |
James West |
C |
Vashon HS |
St. Louis |
1970 |
Orioles (24) |
$15,000 |
| 10. |
Randy Nosek |
RHP |
Chillicothe HS |
Chillicothe |
1085 |
Tigers (26) |
$100,000 |
NOTE: We have not included four Missouri high-school products who became first-round picks after attending out-of state colleges. The four are LHP Bryan Oelkers (Wichita State/1982, 4th pick overall), RHP Jim Winn (John Brown College, Ark./1981, 14th pick), 1B John Mayberry (Stanford/2005, 19th pick), LHP Nick Schmidt (Arkansas/2007, 23rd pick).
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