Today represents the midway point between the start of the 2009 draft (June 9) and the signing deadline (Aug. 17), and it’s readily apparent that there’s a lot of unfinished business left to be conducted.
Not only do the top three picks remain unsigned, including No. 1 overall selection Stephen Strasburg, but so 20 of 32 first-rounders and 28 of the first 50 selections.
To date, major league teams have toed the line on handing out signing bonuses. In the backdrop of a struggling economy, Major League Baseball recommended an across-the-board 10 percent rollback on signing bonuses on slots in the first five rounds—and teams have adhered to the guidelines. In fact, many bonuses given out to early-round picks are precisely 10 percent less than the corresponding slot a year ago.
Of 170 possible draft picks in the first five rounds, only 98 (58 percent) have signed. In just three cases has a player signed for a bonus amount larger than the same slot a year ago, but in every situation the 2008 pick was a college senior who signed at a discounted rate.
MLB’s slot recommendations apply only to the first five rounds, and not surprisingly the bonuses paid out to players in Rounds 6-10 have often been larger than the corresponding slot in 2008. That could be a sign of things to come as the draft’s signing phase enters the second half.
Since a uniform signing deadline was implemented effective with the 2007 draft, there has been a rush of player signings at the deadline—often for bonuses significantly above slot. That is expected to occur again this year, although there is expected to be a lot more unsigned players than normal as the deadline nears. On this date a year ago, 16 of 30 first-rounders had signed, as had 33 of the top 50 selections.
The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, in particular, have had difficulty coming to terms with their early-round picks. Seattle has eight unsigned picks (of a possible 10) in the first eight rounds, while Toronto has not signed any of its first eight picks. In the Mariners case, it is anticipated that most of their selections will be signed for amounts above the recommended slots, and as a result most of those signings won’t be consummated until closer to the deadline.
Major League Baseball has taken its clubs to task in the last two years for breaking rank on its recommended slot amounts, but has typically turned a blind eye at the deadline when teams do what they need to do to sign their premium drafts, and often go substantially above slot to sign them—in both the earlier and later rounds. Cognizant of a larger payday if they choose to hold out until the deadline, more and more players may be hoping to cash in this year when all sense of financial restraint is again likely to be cast to the wind.
PG Crosschecker has been keeping close tabs on club-by-club signings to date, and we’ve also identified all the unsigned picks and the colleges they will attend in the event they don’t sign. In the accompanying Top 10 chart, we’ve identified several prominent players who may have fallen the farthest in this year’s draft over perceived signability concerns.
Not every team has had difficulty in signing its draft picks this year, however. The Houston Astros have signed every pick in the first 25 rounds, except their 12th-rounder. Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies have signed every selection in the first 28 rounds, with the exception of first-rounder Tyler Matzek; the Cleveland Indians have signed every pick in the first 20 rounds with the exception of first-rounder Alex White. With the exception of their own unsigned first-rounder Shelby Miller, the St. Louis Cardinals have not only inked every player in the first 15 rounds, but all but seven of their entire quota of 50 picks overall. Matzek, Miller and White are all expected to sign at the deadline.
As with any draft, not every prominent draft pick will sign, and the accompanying chart identifies 10 high-school players from PG Crosschecker’s Pre-Draft Top 250 Prospects list who weren’t selected until after the 10th round—or later than where their talent warranted—for signability reasons. A number of these players will probably end up in college and become the cream of next year’s freshman crop, but they will almost certainly come under close scrutiny as the Aug. 17 signing deadline nears as the teams that drafted them will make one last significant run at trying to sign them.
We’ve identified where the player was ranked in the top 250, where he was ultimately drafted and the college he’ll attend—should be enroll in college.