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A Different Type of Mock Draft
David Rawnsley

My colleague Jim Callis, who has covered the baseball draft extensively since he began working at Baseball America in 1987 and is considered one of the foremost authorities on the topic, does an interesting exercise each year after the draft. He essentially acts as a one-man scouting department and chooses 10 players who he would have picked in each of the first 10 rounds if given the opportunity do so.

His pool of available talent to pick from in each succeeding round includes any player in the actual first-year player draft not picked by the time his turn comes up. As I recall, he arbitrarily assigns himself a drafting slot in the first round and chooses players in the same spot every round thereafter.

I’m going to do somewhat the same exercise, using the midway pick in each round as my draft position, but I’m doing it BEFORE the draft.

To determine which players are eligible for me to pick from, I’m simply going to use the list of the Top 250 Prospects for this year’s draft that PG Crosschecker compiled a week ago. The 15th pick in the rotation (my drafting position) belongs this year to the Cleveland Indians, so I’ll effectively be picking in that club’s spot each round. In the second round, for instance, I would have pick No. 63, and the list of players I would have to pick from would be all players on the Top 250 listed at No. 63, or below that number. I have even arbitrarily given myself a compensation pick (No. 41), since there are 17 such selections between the first and second rounds.

My goal is to pick the best, most signable player available when my turn comes up. In that regard, signability would probably only come into play when the reality of picking high-school players after about the fifth or sixth rounds has to be dealt with. My picks in the 8th-10th rounds happen to be all college players, and that’s not a coincidence. Obviously, by the time my selections come around in the ninth and 10th rounds, I have to go off the board as pick No. 250 correlates to an eight-round selection.

I’ve analyzed my selections at the bottom of the file, and discussed the strategy involved in taking the player I did. So here goes—you should actually try this yourself at home.

FIRST ROUND (15th selection): Eric Arnett, rhp, Indiana U. (PG Top 250 Rank: 21)
I love Arnett’s athletic resume and size, his ability to pitch long into games (average of 7-2/3 innings/start in 2009), his ability to maintain his stuff (reportedly 95 in the 10th inning one outing), his ability to keep the ball in the yard (3 HRs in 108 IP). I do have regrets about not putting Florida high-schooler Bobby Borchering here as switch-hitting, 40-home-run hitters don’t come along very often, but that’s the high-school risk factor.

COMPENSATION ROUND (41): Billy Hamilton, ss, Taylorsville (Miss.) HS (PG 250 Rank: 41)
Hamilton is a freakish athlete with the same type of tools that makes Tampa Bay’s Carl Crawford an all-star, plus the ability to play center field if shortstop doesn’t work out. There is some risk with Hamilton as he hasn’t played baseball at the same high level as most top prospects, and he comes from a rough background (like Crawford) that will take some maturity to overcome. Crawford, by the way, was just the 52nd overall selection in the 1999 draft. A bonus of picking Hamilton in this spot is the ability to spread his bonus money out over a five-year, multi-sport contract due to his football scholarship to Mississippi State.

SECOND ROUND (63): Slade Heathcott, of, Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas (PG 250 Rank: 71)
One of my close friends in the scouting business finds a way to worm his opinion into just about every conversation that Heathcott is a legitimate first-round talent and the most overlooked/under-ranked player on our list. I wouldn’t realistically expect him to be available in this spot on June 9, even with some of his baggage. This pick might blow up or might end up being an all-star.

THIRD ROUND (94): Kendal Volz, rhp, Baylor U. (PG 250 Rank: 113)
Volz was considered a potential top-half-of-the-first-round pick four months ago before joining the rest of the Baylor pitching staff in self-destructing (3-7, 4.50 in 86 IP) this spring. I haven’t heard one mention of Volz having an injury, just that his mechanics and raw stuff have taken a big step backward. There is high-ceiling potential in his arm, though, and for him to be available for the taking in the third round would be outstanding. Volz’ potential as a closer is interesting, but I would begin his minor-league career as a starter.

FOURTH ROUND (125): Miles Hamblin, c, Howard (Texas) JC (PG Rank: 140)
Hamblin hasn’t gotten as much publicity this spring as his 63-1 national-championship team, or even some other players I could pick in this slot. But his overall package is very intriguing: lefthanded hitter, big juice in his bat, projectable 6-2, 190 build, plus arm strength, catcher for possibly the greatest JC team in history this spring. If I wanted to go out on a limb, I’d pick South Carolina prep righthander Brooks Hall, who I’m convinced is going to be a front-line, mid-90s starter someday but is light years away now as a recently-converted shortstop.

FIFTH ROUND (155): Josh Prince, ss, Tulane U. (PG 250 Rank: 156
Prince had a stealthy, All-American type season for Tulane(.353-6-31, 45 BBs, 48 SBs) and is the type of athlete who can stay at shortstop for a long time. I compared his future production level to a Royce Clayton-type of player to one scout, and he said I might have hit it right on the head. While Clayton, a former first-rounder, was far from an all-star caliber player (his career year was .266-9-61, 30 SBs), he was a starting shortstop in the big leagues for 15 years! That’s pretty darned good potential value from a fifth-round pick.

SIXTH ROUND (185): Luke Bailey, c, Troup County HS, LaGrange, Ga. (PG 250 Rank: 190)
The commissioner’s office provides specific signing bonus amounts for only the top five rounds, and this is where teams start making exceptions. Since I have a very generous and well-heeled owner, he’s given me the money to overpay on Bailey and his injured elbow—probably to the tune of high second-round money. Before Tommy John surgery in April, Bailey was a sure first-rounder, so I might be getting a steal here.

SEVENTH ROUND (215): Ronnie Richardson, of, Lake Region HS, Eagle Lake, Fla. (PG 250 Rank: 222)
Richardson, all 5-foot-8 of him, is one of my favorite players in the country. I’m convinced he’s going to play in the big leagues, the same way I was convinced that Kentucky prep outfielder and Minnesota Twins first-rounder Ben Revere would two years ago. He’s a ball player with tools, instincts and desire, and if he was even 6-feet we’d easily be talking about him in the first two rounds.

EIGHTH ROUND (245): Wes Luquette, c, Isodore Newman HS, New Orleans (PG 250 Rank: 250)
I know I’ve pick three catchers in the top eight rounds, but 2009 is the Year of the Catcher in the draft and I might as well take advantage of it. Hamblin and Luquette will start at different levels in Rookie-ball, and Bailey, due to his injury, won’t start playing until 2010, so they will be staggered enough to start on different tracks. Luquette is an excellent all-round athlete and leader who is under-recognized due to his extensive football accomplishments (pro-style quarterback) and could be one of the top defensive catchers in the country.

NINTH ROUND (275): A.J. Griffin, rhp, U. San Diego (PG 250 Rank: not ranked)
We have to go off the top 250 board to make a selection here. Griffin went an impressive 8-3, 3.33, 3 SV this spring while making a mid-season switch from the bullpen to the starting rotation for the injury-riddled USD team. The former USA national-team closer profiles well as a starter since his changeup is his top secondary pitch and he doesn’t have a put-away slider. Above all, for selection in this slot, Griffin has two present-average pitches and has been highly successful at a very high level.

TENTH ROUND (305): Steve Richards, lhp, U. Arkansas (PG 250 Rank: not ranked)
What I want most with my 10th-round pick is the surest thing I can find to a future big-leaguer. Richards was abusive as the Razorbacks closer this spring, going 5-1, 1.09 with nine saves and48 K’s in 33 innings. He throws from a low, cross-fire release point with a fringy average fastball and a big and snappy slider. Sounds like an ideal southpaw situational reliever.

The next two players on my list would have been St. Petersburg (Fla.) JC righthander Ryan Weber and Georgia high-school outfielder Alex Glenn.

It is very obvious from my list of 11 players what I value most: pitching and premium position athletes. I selected only four pitchers and took five consecutive position players at one point, which kind of surprised me in hindsight. If you count Heathcott as a center fielder, which may be a stretch, I selected two center fielders, three catchers and two shortstops. I can have seen myself going for the right type of slugging college corner guy in the 5th/6th-round area, if the right player was there, but I’m going to let my GM, Latin American-scouting director and farm director find and develop corner power players when there are still premium athletes on the draft board.

It’s not a coincidence that my top four picks all had opportunities to play other sports in college (Volz was a hard-hitting linebacker in high school)—and, in the case of Hamilton and Arnett, three different sports. Simply put, skills can be developed; athletic ability either exists or it doesn’t.

I really didn’t pay much attention to whether a player came from high school, junior college or college. I ended up selecting only five high-school players, which might sound odd for someone who makes his living in real-life scouting and writes regularly about high-school players. But there is a place for everything and picking the best player available regardless of age/school creates a desirable balance for me.

At some point in the draft, I believe you have to switch from picking the best athlete available to picking the player(s) you feel has the greatest chance of reaching the big leagues and becoming an asset for your organization. For me, that switch came in the seventh round, although I might have picked Richardson a round or two earlier had we ranked him higher in the Top 250. Johnson, Griffin and Richards all have plus makeup, and are high-performance players with a definable and realistic niche at the big-league level for their established talents.

 
11/13/2009 - Yankees Dynasty
11/4/2009 - All-Time Greats on Display

   

I have many players who are not on your 250 list--and i am happy they are not!
Posted By: Guest