PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 38: 10/6/08 - 10/12/08
ASTROS, ROYALS SHOWDOWN ON TAP
BY DAVID RAWNSLEY
Thursday October 9, 2008


FORT MYERS, Fla.--The 2008 World Wood Bat Association fall underclass championship, which gets underway here Friday, serves as a coming-out party every year for countless high school juniors and sophomores, and even a few freshmen who will eventually become household names in the prospect world.

The 66-team tournament, with teams from all over the country, runs through the weekend and concludes early Monday afternoon with the championship game scheduled for City of Palms Stadium, the spring training home of the Boston Red Sox. You’ll be able to follow much of the action by logging on to Perfect Game-affiliated websites over the next four days, and we’ll highlight some of the top prospects next week in PG Crosschecker.

Please check on both the World Wood Bat Association (www.worldwoodbat.com) and Baseball Web TV (www.baseballwebtv.com) sites for constant updates on the action.

In one respect, handicapping such a tournament with so many players who are just starting to show prospect tools or who are still essentially unknown to the Perfect Game staff, and the scouting industry generally, is difficult. But some teams just reload every year and have undoubtedly showed up with a new core of talented youngsters.

It’s not hard to figure who the tournament favorite should be. Georgia’s East Cobb Astros have won four of the six WWBA underclass championships, including three straight from 2004-2006, a streak that was broken a year ago by the previously unheralded McKinney (Texas) Marshals. The Astros have brought their usual combination of a deep pitching staff, very athletic outfielders and highly-skilled infielders and catchers to the event. They also have the huge advantage of having played together extensively throughout the summer and early fall.

That being said, the KC Royals Scout Team/Midland Braves might have the most talented team—on paper. They have an all-star group of players from at least 11 different states and some top name pitchers that will make them a very difficult team to beat—particularly come Monday, when the 2008 champion will have to win three games to take home the rings.

Here’s a rough idea of the top 10 teams participating along with some of the premium talent on each club:

1. East Cobb Astros/Gray (Marietta, Ga.)
 Experience, a deep pitching staff led by righthanders Caleb Cowart and Ralston Cash, and athletes such as outfielders Trey Griffin and Andrew Toles are just part of the Astros annual reloading process.

2. KC Royals Scout Team/Midland Braves (Amelia, Ohio)
 As good as their 2010 players are, the Royals/Braves group of 2011 prospects (LHP Dillon Peters, RHP Dillon Howard and RHP Dakota Smith) might be even more exciting.

3. All-American Prospects/Blue (Miami)
 The middle of the Prospects lineup is imposing with third baseman Kris Castellanos, shortstop Yordy Cabrera and catcher Tyler Ross all measuring 6-foot-3 or better, with plus power across the board.

4. Orlando Scorpions/Gray (Orlando, Fla.)
 Righthanders A.J. Cole (the No.-1 ranked high school prospect in the 2010 class) and Brett Winger might be the best pitching duo in the field and will be a big factor—if the rest of the Scorpions roster can get them to the end of the playoffs.

5. Louisiana Elite (Baton Rouge, La.)
 The Elite has Louisiana’s top in-state talent (RHP Joe Broussard) but has also gone out of state for players such as third baseman/righthander Matt Kirkland (the top 2010 player in Tennessee) and first baseman/lefthander Patrick McGavin (Alabama).

6. Richmond Braves (Richmond, Va.)
 The Braves are missing some key players from the team that won this summer’s WWBA 16-and-under national championship in Marietta, Ga., in July, but they will still field an outstanding team.

7. Dirtbags (Sedalia, N.C.)
 The Dirtbags were the 2007 runner-up and always play deep into the playoffs. Outfielders DeSean Anderson and Jonathan Holt lead the line up.

8. Florida Hardballers (Gainesville, Fla.)
 Shortstop/righthander Jacob Tillotson and catcher Will Allen give the Hardballers excellent strength in the middle of the field.

9. South Charlotte Panthers (Charlotte, N.C.)
 Based on their recent track record, the Panthers are sure to show up with a deep roster of very fundamentally sound players and pitchers who throw strikes.

10. Hurricanes Baseball (Fredericksburg, Va.)
 Shortstop Connor Narron, the son of former big league manager Jerry Narron and the top-rated high school position player in the 2010 class, will be one of the most-watched players at the championship, and the rest of the Hurricanes roster looks solid as well.

PLAYOFFS ARE A CRAPSHOOT
BY ALLAN SIMPSON
Thursday October 9, 2008
With the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels, the teams with the best regular-season records in their respective leagues, making hasty exits this year from post-season play by going a combined 1-6 in the National and American League Division Series, and the Boston Red Sox positioned to win their third World Series in five years as a wild-card entry, it has become apparent that playoff baseball in the wild-card era has become a crapshoot.

No longer is the World Series winner necessarily the game’s best team or rightful champion.

Not when a wild-card team has won the World Series four times, one less than a team that posted the best record in its league has. Not when nine wild-card teams have reached the World Series, one less than a team with the best record in its league has. Not when the teams that have posted the 10 best records in the wild-card era, as the accompanying chart shows, have won just a single World Series (the 1998 New York Yankees).

Since the three-division, wild-card format was introduced in 1994 and that year’s World Series was promptly cancelled, the teams with the best records in their respective leagues have gone 144-112 (.562) in post-season play. By contrast, wild-card teams have gone a collective 129-117 (.524). That’s not a profound difference, especially when wild-card teams have never had home-field advantage in any series.

National League wild-card teams (69-64) have even done better in the post-season through the years than the teams with the best record (63-60), highlighted, of course, by the improbable World Series success enjoyed in 1997 and 2003 by the Florida Marlins—a team that has never finished in first place, yet has two World Series trophies.

Throughout much of its rich history, baseball has resisted allowing anything but first-place teams from participating in post-season play as it sought to preserve the sanctity and integrity of a 154-game or 162-game regular season.

It didn’t want to go the direction of the NHL or NBA, which historically have opened the door to the post-season to more than half the teams in their leagues—even some very undeserving sub-.500 teams. As a result, it’s not uncommon in those leagues that the recognized champion is, rightly or wrongly, not the same team that had the best regular-season record. Even the 64-team NCAA basketball tournament, for all the excitement it generates, rarely crowns a truly deserving champion. The more games in a single-elimination format, the greater chance for an upset.

In baseball, pretty much until 1995 when the number of playoff teams was doubled, the team that won the World Series deserved to win or was at least a worthy champion, based on their regular-season performance.

There’s little question that the wild-card concept and expanded playoffs have been wildly popular as the game has enjoyed unparalleled popularity over the last 15 years, but it’s apparent that the more teams that are involved in post-season and the more the standards are lowered to include more teams, the less likely it is that a rightful champion will emerge.

How else do you explain a wild-card team winning the World Series three years in a row from 2002 to 2004, or a wild-card team advancing to the World Series in each of the last six years—with the Red Sox primed to make it seven in a row? How else do you explain the St. Louis Cardinals winning the 2006 World Series, despite an anemic 83-78 regular season record?

The Chicago Cubs, on the 100th anniversary of their last World Series victory, deserved a better fate than having a 97-win season go up in smoke in a playoff system that does little, if anything, to reward regular-season success—particularly in a best-of-5 division series. Ten times in the wild-card era has the team with best record in its league been knocked out in the Division Series. By contrast, wild-card teams have gone an unfathomable 16-12 in first-round series.

If anything, the Division Series should be expanded to a best-of-7 affair on the rationale that the better, more deserving team will generally win over the long haul. But consideration should also be given to awarding a first-round bye to the team in each league with the best record, or to giving teams with the best records a decided home-field advantage—like five, or maybe even six home games, in a best-of-7 series.

It also wouldn’t hurt to have post-season play become more representative of the daily grind of the regular season, where the incessant number of off days that are created to pacify TV networks are eliminated. It would force teams to use the same fourth and fifth starters that got them to the post-season in the first place.

Until such changes are incorporated—if they are ever incorporated—we can expect to see the same random champions that we’ve become accustomed to seeing. The attached list honors the teams with the 10 best regular-season records in the wild-card era (1994-2008), and includes their regular-season record, their post-season record (an aggregate 48-45) and their post-season fate:
Rank Team Year Season Record *W-L Post-Season Fate
1. Seattle Mariners 2001 116-46 (.716) 4-6 Lost to Yankees in ALCS
2. New York Yankees 1998 114-48 (.704) 11-2 Won World Series
3. Cleveland Indians 1995 100-44 (.694) 9-6 Lost to Braves in World Series
4. Atlanta Braves 1998 106-56 (.654) 5-4 Lost to Padres in NLCS
5. St. Louis Cardinals 2004 105-57 (.648) 7-8 Lost to Red Sox in World Series
6. New York Yankees 2002 103-58 (.640) 1-3 Lost to Angels in ALDS
7. Atlanta Braves 1999 103-59 (.636) 7-7 Lost to Yankees in World Series
  Oakland Athletics 2002 103-59 (.636) 1-3 Lost to Red Sox in ALDS
9. Atlanta Braves 2002 101-59 (.631) 2-3 Lost to Cubs in ALDS
10. Houston Astros 1998 102-60 (.630) 1-3 Lost to Padres in NLDS
*Post-Season Record
FLORIDA SNAGS TOP RECRUITS
BY ALLAN SIMPSON
Monday October 6, 2008
The early college signing deadline for the top seniors in this year’s high school baseball class is still more than five weeks away, but already the University of Florida has emerged as the front runner in snagging its share of the top prospects in the 2009 class.

PG Crosschecker has identified college commitments for 79 of the top 100 prospects in this year’s senior class, and seven have committed to Florida. UCLA, North Carolina and Southern California are next with four, followed by Arizona, Auburn, Cal State Fullerton, Louisiana State, Miami, San Diego and South Carolina with three apiece.

All of the commitments to date are verbal and non-binding, but it is apparent that this will be a big recruiting haul for the Gators. The team’s prized recruit to date is catcher Austin Maddox from Jacksonville’s Eagle’s View Academy. He ranks No. 6 on PG Crosschecker’s ranking of the top 1,350 prospects in the 2009 prep class.

None of the top four prospects on the list has committed to date, although the quartet has not been aggressively recruited as all are projected to be selected in the top half of the first round in the 2009 draft. Texas lefthander Matt Purke is the No. 1-ranked player and has several schools still pursuing him. Georgia outfielder Donavan Tate, ranked No. 2 nationally by PG Crosschecker, also is being recruited by the nation’s college football powers.

Players may begin officially signing letters of intent with colleges effective with the second Wednesday in November (Nov. 12), and we’ll have a complete list of signings available at that time. In the meantime, hundreds of verbal commitments can be found on PG Crosschecker’s list of the top 1,350 prospects and also in the 2009 follow lists for every state that are available on the PG Crosschecker site.

Here are the nation’s top high school prospects in the 2009 draft class as ranked by PG Crosschecker, and the (non-binding verbal) college commitment of the top 10 players that have committed:
Rank Player Pos. School/Hometown Commitment
1. Matt Purke LHP Klein HS, Spring, Texas None
2. Donavan Tate OF Cartersville (Ga.) HS None
3. Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif. None
4. Mychal Givens SS/RHP H.B. Plant HS, Tampa None
5. Jacob Turner RHP Westminster Academy, St. Charles, Mo. North Carolina
6. Austin Maddox C Eagle’s View Academy, Jacksonville, Fla. Florida
7. Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa (Calif.) HS Southern California
8. Max Stassi C Yuba City (Calif.) HS UCLA
9. Zack Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga. Kennesaw State
10. Keyvius Sampson RHP Forest HS, Ocala, Fla. None
11. Shelby Miller RHP Brownwood (Texas) HS Texas A&M
12. Luke Bailey C Troup HS, LaGrange, Ga. Auburn
13. Wil Myers RHP Wesleyan Academy, Thomasville, N.C. South Carolina
14. Jake Marisnick OF Poly HS, Riverside, Calif. Oregon
15. Brian Goodwin OF Rocky Mount (N.C.) HS North Carolina