PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 40: 10/20/08 - 10/26/08
RAYS SURGE, PIRATES CONTINUE SLIDE
BY ALLAN SIMPSON
Monday November 3, 2008

The Tampa Bay Rays didn’t quite complete the deal, but they nonetheless had one of the great rags-to-riches seasons in big-league history. From the worst record in the majors a year ago, they won 97 games in 2008 and came within three games of an improbable World Series triumph.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates continued to plod along, winning just 67 times this year to bring up the rear in the National League Central—again.

Not only did the Rays and Pirates produce the two poorest records in the big leagues in 2007, but no American League team lost more games (972) over a 10-year period than the Rays, and no National League club went down more often than the Pirates, who lost 918 times from 1998-2007. Moreover, the Rays had never experienced a winning season in their history, while Pittsburgh’s last winning year was in 1992—16 long years ago.

But through all the losing that the two clubs endured, the wheels were at least churning below the surface with the Rays and it was a given in the industry that it was only a matter of time before they would burst through. No one could have predicted it would be so soon, or so dramatically.

To understand why the Rays, and not the Pirates, became possibly baseball’s greatest success story this year you have to look no further than the draft. Over the same 10-year period from 1998-2007 that the two clubs produced the worst records in their respective leagues, resulting in a succession of early draft picks for both clubs, it’s graphically evident that Tampa Bay assembled the foundation of its 2008 club while Pittsburgh squandered pick after pick.

The Rays drafted in a slightly higher position than the Pirates in eight of the 10 years, and selected the likes of Rocco Baldelli, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and David Price—not to mention Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young. The Pirates, meanwhile, have little to show for their 10 first-round picks over a corresponding period.

Not only have just four of the 10 Pirates first-rounders from 1998-2007 reached the big leagues, but the ones that have are pitchers and their combined career record to date is 38-59. Lefthander Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh’s top pick in 2003, has been the most successful of the 10 but even his career mark after four big league seasons is an unimpressive 30-35.

No draft highlights the difference in fortunes (and perhaps, philosophy) between the Rays and Pirates more than the 2002 draft. The Pirates had the No. 1 pick that year and took the safer, surer pick in Ball State righthander Bryan Bullington. Tampa Bay had to settle for the riskier, but more athletic B.J. Upton with the second selection.

Bullington was mercifully let go by the Pirates earlier this year after failing to win even one big league game. Upton hasn’t quite lived up to his lofty expectations, either, since breaking into the big leagues in 2004, but he gave the baseball world an up-close look at his impressive, five-tool talent as the Rays surged past the White Sox and Red Sox to win the American League pennant.

Interestingly, the Rays and Pirates had the first two picks again in this year’s draft, and used them to select Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham and Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez.

It may be a while before Tampa Bay is afforded that opportunity again as its future looks

nothing but rosy. There is little to indicate that anything will change in Pittsburgh any time soon, however, as a Pirates turnaround is not imminent.

The accompanying chart lists the first-round picks for Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh over the 10-year period from 1998-2007, and it’s readily apparent why the fortunes of the two clubs have gone in different directions. The number in parentheses after the player’s name indicates the order of the team’s selection in the first round.

Year Rays Pick Pirates Pick
1998 None Clint Johnston, lhp-of (15)
The Rays forfeited their first three picks as the price for signing free agents Roberto Hernandez, Wilson Alvarez and Dave Martinez, while the Pirates incorrectly guessed that they could make a pitcher out of Johnston, who was vastly more successful as a hitter at Vanderbilt.
 
1999 Josh Hamilton, of (1) Bobby Bradley, rhp (8)
The careers of both players were short-circuited initially, but Hamilton eventually overcame his dependence on drugs while Bradley succumbed to a history of arm problems. How much better could the ’08 Rays have been with Hamilton in right field?
 
2000 Rocco Baldelli, of (6) Sean Burnett, lhp (19)
A rare illness has put Baldelli’s once promising career at a crossroads, while Burnett has resurfaced in Pittsburgh after it looked like an arm injury might lead him down the same path to obscurity as Bradley, his former high school pitching mate.
 
2001 Dewon Brazelton, rhp (3) John Van Benschoten, 1b-rhp (8)
Both clubs botched their top picks in this draft as Brazelton went 8-25 in his big league career, and Van Benschoten just 2-13. But the Pirates, at least, left themselves open to question by trying to make a pitcher out of the 2001 NCAA home run champion.
 
2002 B.J. Upton, ss (2) Bryan Bullington, rhp (1)
In a 2008 post-season where fans around the country got a close-up look at Upton’s immense talent, Bullington quietly was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays—his third club this season. With a 0-5 career record, he ranks among the biggest first overall flops in draft history.
 
2003 Delmon Young, of (1) Paul Maholm, lhp (8)
Young’s departure from Tampa Bay coincided with the team’s sudden turnaround, but his trade to the Twins at least delivered Matt Garza. Maholm may be Pittsburgh’s most productive first-rounder in the decade, but he’s viewed as little more than a journeyman lefthander.
 
2004 Jeff Niemann, rhp (4) Neil Walker, c (11)
The Rays hoped to get an immediate boost to their sagging fortunes by taking a polished college pitcher, but Niemann finally made the big leagues four years later—and won two games this season. Walker no longer is a catcher, and his .280 on-base average in Triple-A this season further clouds his chance of fulfilling his potential.
 
2005 Wade Townsend, rhp (8) Andrew McCutchen, of (11)
Somehow, the Rays thought Townsend, even with a year of inactivity, was still the eighth-best prospect in the draft—just like the Orioles believed in 2004, when they were unable to sign him. McCutchen’s chance of playing in the big leagues is real, but taking over center field in Pittsburgh from Nate McLouth, a former 25th-rounder, is not.
 
2006 Evan Longoria, 3b (3) Brad Lincoln, rhp (4)
While Longoria was a key piece in Tampa Bay’s sudden rise to respectability, hitting cleanup as a rookie, Lincoln’s career has been much slower to evolve. He was derailed in 2007 by Tommy John surgery and his bounce-back season raied more questions than answers.
 
2007 David Price, lhp (1) Daniel Moskos, lhp (4)
They were the first two lefthanders taken in the 2007 draft, but the career accomplishments of both in college were miles apart and their performance to date in pro ball hasn’t drawn them any closer. With Price certain to assume a much more meaningful role on the Rays staff in 2009, the gap should only widen.