PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 21: 5/26/08 - 6/01/08
 
WILD CARD 2: THE FOURTH-YEAR JUNIOR
Friday May 30, 2008
In a recent PG Crosschecker Top 10 list, we talked about college seniors and the draft. There is another demographic that nearly fits the same draft definition of ‘wild card’, and that is the fourth-year junior.

College seniors and fourth-year juniors are similar in many ways, the primary ones being that they are generally the same age and graduated from high school, in the case of the 2008 class, in 2004. Where the big difference comes into play is that the fourth-year junior has another year of college eligibility remaining because he red-shirted at some point in his career. With another year of college as leverage, he can normally command at least a slot-type signing-bonus; his senior counterpart, with no such leverage, is often forced to sign for a ‘senior discount.’

The reality is that very, very few high-profile fourth-year juniors return to school as fifth-year seniors, even if they feel shorted in the bonus offer they receive, as they don’t want to go out to pro ball when they are, or are approaching the advanced age of 23. Many have already graduated or are close to doing so by that point so another full year in college is not a productive use of time.

The common thread in the accompanying Top 10 list on the reasons a player took a red-shirt season at one point in his career is pretty easy to figure out. Six of the seven pitchers missed a season because of arm surgery of one type or another, mostly Tommy John. The three position players all were red-shirted as freshmen while they got stronger. Interestingly, the two players who red-shirted as junior college freshmen, outfielders Eric Thames and Logan Schafer, were both at California junior colleges.

The list of fourth-year juniors could easily have been expanded to include other potential early-round selections like Arizona lefthander Eric Berger, Georgia Tech outfielder Charlie Blackmon, Georgia Tech righthander Eddie Burns,Kentucky outfielder Collin Cowgill, Coastal Carolina catcher Dock Doyle and Rice righthander Matt Langwell. But we’ll limit the list to the 10 we project to be the most likely to roll off the table first in this year’s draft, set for June 5-6. Obviously, all were draft-eligible in 2007 and where they were selected a year is noted.
Rank Player Pos. College Reason for Red-Shirt Drafted ’07 (Round)
1 Chris Carpenter RHP Kent State R/S 2006, TJ surgery Yankees (19)
2 Daniel Schlereth LHP Arizona R/S 2005, TJ surgery (at UNLV) Athletics (8)
3 Eric Thames OF Pepperdine R/S 2005 (at West Valley, Calif., JC) Yankees (39)
4 Carlos Gutierrez RHP Miami R/S 2007, TJ surgery Not drafted
5 Scott Bittle RHP Mississippi R/S 2006, (at NE Texas JC) Yankees (48)
6 Logan Schafer OF Cal Poly R/S 2005 (at Cuesta, Calif., CC) Rockies (47)
7 Drew O’Neil RHP Penn State R/S 2005, TJ surgery (at Wake Forest) Reds (8)
8 Scott Green RHP Kentucky R/S 2006, TJ surgery Red Sox (15)
9 Adam Zornes C Rice R/S 2005 Indians (24)
10 Daniel Thomas RHP South Florida R/S 2007, Shoulder surgery Cardinals (44)
--DAVID RAWNSLEY Top Ten List Archives
COLLEGE SENIORS: Draft Wild Cards
Wednesday May 28, 2008
More than any demographic in the baseball draft, college seniors are viewed differently than other prospects. They often come with a negative connotation as most are seen as late-round afterthoughts, cheap signs, inexpensive roster-fillers or convenient pawns for teams to keep their signing budgets in check. Five years ago, the Kansas City Royals drafted college seniors with all their picks from the fifth- through ninth-rounds, and paid them $1,000 apiece.

There are two distinct types of “senior signs” in any draft.

There are those seniors who have some level of legitimate prospect status, often carried over from not signing after their junior season. Clubs will slot these kind of seniors prominently on their draft boards and spend a solid draft pick on them. The players cannot expect to receive slot money in the rounds they are selected and will often be offered far less (each club’s policy towards seniors differs) than a high school senior or a college junior in a corresponding slot. The bonus they can expect to receive is often about two-thirds of a conventional draft pick. But these seniors are treated as prospects, not roster fillers.

Then there are the roster fillers, players signed in later rounds for a very minimal signing bonus ($1,000-$2,500) to fill out short-season Class A or Rookie-level rosters. Teams draft these players according to their own organizational needs, many not until near the end of the draft.

True Story: Sometimes these roster-filler, senior signs turn out to be future major leaguers. When I was with the Houston Astros in 1994 as an assistant scouting director, we were at the stage of the draft where we were alternately drafting senior-fillers and draft-and-follow candidates. We had a scout in the Northeast named Bob Blair, who had yet to have one of his players drafted, just missing on a couple of very good prospects early. Noting that, and for no other good reason than Bob needed a player and 6-foot-5 lefthanders are always a good risk, I decided to draft John Halama from St. Francis (N.Y.) College in the 23rd round. It was apparent from the first time Halama pitched at Auburn (New York-Penn) that Bob, and every other scout in the area, had under-evaluated Halama and that he was a future major leaguer (88-90 mph fastball, ++ changeup, + command, unbelievable pickoff move, poise, etc.). He ended up pitching 262 games in the big leagues.--DR

In the order that we project they’ll be drafted in June, here’s the 10 most noteworthy D-I transfers:

Seniors can occasionally play an integral role early in the draft. Take the 2007 draft, when Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta was the seventh overall pick (Brewers) and was immediately followed by Vanderbilt reliever Casey Weathers (Rockies). Two other seniors, Gonzaga righthander Clay Mortensen (36th pick, Cardinals) and Louisville righthander Trystan Magnuson (56th pick, Blue Jays) were picked in the compensation round.

That scenario is not likely to be repeated this year as only one senior is projected to be selected in the first round or comp round, Georgia closer Josh Fields. That’s more in keeping with the five-year stretch from 2002-06 when only two college seniors were selected in the first round.

Since Fields, a Braves draft pick, didn’t sign last year as the 70th pick overall and has had a significantly better senior season, his selection in the first round should come as no surprise. His path parallels that of LaPorta, who was projected as a potential early first-round pick prior to his junior season before a weak spring caused him to plummet in the draft, and he returned for his senior season.

There is usually a range in each draft when the elite-level senior signs start flying off the draft board. It usually depends on the depth of signable talent in a particular draft and how pressured teams are in towing the line on bonuses. Sometimes this scenario happens as early as the fifth to sixth rounds; other years it occurs a little later.

For the purposes of Today’s Top 10, the top college seniors this year can be broken into three categories: (1.) players that were drafted a year ago, (2.) players that have never been drafted, and (3.) players that were drafted out of high school but went undrafted as college juniors. The only significant potential early-round draft that fits the latter category is Long Beach State righthander Andrew Liebel, a potential third-rounder.

We’ll identify the top 10 prospects in both of the earlier categories, starting with the college seniors who were drafted a year ago:
Rank Player Pos. College Drafted '07 Projected '08
1 Josh Fields RHP Georgia Braves (2) 1st round
2 Cole St. Clair LHP Rice Indians (7) 3rd-4th
3 Sawyer Carroll OF Kentucky Nationals (18) 3rd-6th
4 Mitch Harris RHP Navy Braves (24) 4th-6th
5 Robbie Weinhardt RHP Oklahoma State Astros (38) 5th-6th
6 Ryan Strauss RHP Florida State Twins (35) 5th-6th
7 Erik Davis RHP Stanford Rangers (21) 5th-6th
8 Dominic de la Osa OF Vanderbilt Tigers (10) 5th-7th
9 Tyler Coon LHP Southern Mississippi Diamondbacks (38) 6th-7th
10 Pat McAnaney LHP Virginia Pirates (38) 6th-8th
The top-rated college seniors in this year’s draft who have never been drafted:
Rank Player Pos. College Projected '08
1 Paul Gran 3B Washington State 4th-6th
2 Rob Musgrave LHP Wichita State 4th-6th
3 B.J. Rosenberg RHP Louisville 5th-6th
4 Ryan Kulik LHP Rowan (N.J.) 5th-8th
5 Nate Recknagel 1B Michigan 5th-8th
6 Tyson Bagley RHP Dallas Baptist 5th-8th
7 Cory Arbiso RHP Cal State Fullerton 6th-8th
8 Josh Satin 2B California 6th-8th
9 Tom Koehler RHP Stony Brook 6th-8th
10 Alan DeRatt RHP UNC Asheville 6th-8th
--DAVID RAWNSLEY / ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
TRANSFER RULE IMPACTS ’08 DRAFT
Tuesday May 27, 2008
Up to and including this year, transfers between NCAA Division I schools have played a significant part of the college baseball landscape. Unlike their brethren in football and basketball, baseball players have been allowed to transfer schools and not have to sit out a year if they were given a release from their scholarship from the school they were leaving.

That has all changed with new rules governing transfers. The powers that be in the NCAA felt that the APR (Academic Progress Rate) for baseball in general, and many schools in particular, was being adversely affected by frequent transfers, as schools over-recruited players and players themselves moved around between seasons to find the best fit for their talents.

Part of the solution was simply to limit the number of players a school could divide its 11.7 scholarship allotment between. Where some schools would divide their scholarships up into 40 or more slices/players, they will be limited to 35 in 2009 and only 27 a year later. The rest of the solution was simply to adopt the strict football/basketball transfer rules and make athletes sit out a year if they transferred.

A number of the top college players in the 2008 draft took advantage of the liberal transfer rule earlier in their college careers without being forced to sit out a season, making one wonder how much different their baseball career paths might have been under the new rules.

Twenty college players that PG Crosschecker has listed among its Group I (Rounds 1-3) and Group II (Rounds 4-10) prospects for this year’s draft have transferred from one Division I school to another, and only one, UC Irvine righthander Bryce Stowell, was forced to sit out a year while in the transfer process. Long Beach State (Brett Lorin, Dave Roberts), North Carolina State (Clayton Shunick, Eric Sogard) and Oklahoma State (Luis Flores, Matt Hague) each have two such players.

In the order that we project they’ll be drafted in June, here’s the 10 most noteworthy D-I transfers:
Rank Player Pos. Current School Former School
1 Shooter Hunt RHP Tulane Virginia
2 David Cooper 1B California Cal State Fullerton
3 Josh Lindblom RHP Purdue Tennessee
4 Daniel Schlereth LHP Arizona Nevada-Las Vegas
5 *Evan Fredrickson LHP San Francisco Virginia Tech
6 *Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M Winthrop
7 Clayton Shunick RHP North Carolina State Georgia State
8 *Tony Delmonico SS Florida State Tennessee
9 Brett Lorin RHP Long Beach State Arizona
10 *Justin Bristow RHP East Carolina Auburn
*Transferred prior to 2008 season
--DAVID RAWNSLEY/ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives