PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 18: 5/5/08 - 5/11/08
 
PREP ARMS ARE ’08 WILD CARDS
Friday May 9, 2008
With eight picks in the first round, elite high school pitching was a dominant theme in the 2007 draft. The same cannot be said for this year’s draft, which is scheduled for June 5-6.

PG Crosschecker has unveiled a preliminary list of the top 100 prospects, and premium high school arms are in short supply. In fact, it’s almost safe to say that high school pitching is the wild card in this year’s draft as the first four pitchers on the accompanying list were viewed at various points in the last year as primarily position players—or at the least equal parts pitcher and everyday player.

Meanwhile, some of the projected first-round pitchers entering the 2008 season, like righthanders Gerrit Cole (California), Tim Melville (Missouri), Alex Meyer (Indiana), Sonny Gray (Tennessee)and Kyle Lobstein (Arizona), are no longer viewed as consensus first-rounders—and may end up falling precipitously in the draft as signability issues impact their willingness to sign for potentially less than first-round money. They have fallen for a variety of reasons, among them injury, substandard performance, an overwhelming desire to attend college—or a combination thereof.

“I thought high school pitching would separate itself this spring, but it hasn’t done it,” an American League scouting director said. “There are not the true, elite high school arms this year, at least not what we saw last year.”

Some of the high school pitchers who have improved their draft stock the most this spring are California righthander Tyler Chatwood, Minnesota lefthander Brad Hand, Washington, D.C., lefthander Danny Hultzen, Florida righthander Casey Kelly, Tennessee righthander Seth Lintz, Georgia righthander Ethan Martin, Illinois righthander Jake Odorizzi, Colorado righthander Travis Sample and Texas righthander Ross Seaton. All rank among the draft’s top 100 prospects, with Kelly, Martin, Odorizzi and Seaton targeted for the first round.

Kelly’s situation is almost symbolic of this year’s enigmatic high school pitching crop. Though his value may be higher as a pitcher, Kelly could end up going out as a shortstop. He reportedly has told clubs that he wants to be an everyday player and would consider honoring his football commitment to the University of Tennessee if a team drafts him as a pitcher. Kelly, whose father Pat played in the big leagues, is one of the nation’s top quarterback recruits.

The top 10 high school pitches for this year’s draft as we see them, with the order we’ve ranked them in the top 100:
Rank Player Pos. School Top 100 Rank
1 *Aaron Hicks rhp-of Wilson HS, Long Beach, Calif. 15
2 *Casey Kelly ss-rhp Sarasota (Fla.) HS 18
3 *Ethan Martin rhp-3b Stephens County HS, Toccoa, Ga. 21
4 *Jake Odorizzi rhp-ss Highland (Ill.) HS 22
5 Ross Seaton rhp Second Baptist HS, Sugar Land, Texas 27
6 Daniel Webb rhp Heath HS, Paducah, Ky. 34
7 Mike Montgomery lhp Hart HS, Valencia, Calif. 36
8 Brett DeVall lhp Niceville (Fla.) HS 39
9 Zeke Spruill rhp Kell HS, Marietta, Ga. 57
10 Robbie Ross lhp Lexington Christian HS, Lexington, Ky. 58
*Also generating significant interest as a position player
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
CALIFORNIA LOADED WITH TALENT
Wednesday May 7, 2008
Since the draft’s inception in 1965, California has always produced substantially more baseball talent than any other state. In the most recent four-year stretch, from 2004-07, the Golden State produced 1,105 draft picks who attended high school in California. Florida, with 679 selections, was a distant second.

Not only will California produce substantially more draft picks again this year, but it will also yield more than its share of high-end talent. According to PG Crosschecker draft projections, California should produce at least nine or 10 first-round picks—with the possibility of another two or three. In our early state-by-state breakdown for California, we project the state will have 27 players drafted in the top three rounds—17 in a deep and talented college crop, 10 at the high school level. We’re providing early follow lists for all states as part of our extensive draft preview, but those lists are available only to premium level subscribers.

University of San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz was the leading candidate to be the first player drafted in California at the outset of the 2008 college season and he remains the No. 1 prospect. His fastball has peaked at 94 mph but he has used four pitches effectively in compiling a 9-2, 2.03 record with 20 walks and 103 strikeouts in 80 innings. His knockout pitch has been an 84-86 mph cutter/slider.

Several California players have surged from back in the pack into first-round consideration with strong 2008 seasons—notably Stanford catcher Jason Castro, Pepperdine outfielder Damon Thames, Chino Hills High outfielder Zach Collier and Hart High (Valencia) lefthander Mike Montgomery. Fresno State righthander Tanner Scheppers was considered a borderline first-rounder and has solidified himself as a potential Top 10 talent. His fastball was clocked at 99 mph in a rare relief stint last weekend.

On the accompanying list of the projected top 10 California players for this year’s draft, Pepperdine righthander Brett Hunter is the most tentative player on the list. He has been sidelined for all but two starts this spring with a tender elbow but is scheduled to resume pitching again before the draft. His draft status will hinge on the health of his arm as the draft nears. Hunter’s fastball was also clocked in the high 90s before he was sidelined.

The top 10 California prospects for this year’s draft as we see them, with a rough range where they may be selected in the first round:
Rank Player Pos. School Projected Pick
1 Brian Matusz lhp U. of San Diego 2-4
2 Kyle Skipworth c Patriot HS 6-10
3 Tanner Scheppers rhp Fresno State U. 8-12
4 Aaron Hick rhp-of Woodrow Wilson HS, Long Beach 12-18
5 Jason Castro c Stanford U. 18-30
6 Zach Collier of Chino Hills HS 18-30
7 Tyson Ross rhp U. of California 25-30
8 David Cooper 1b U. of California 25-30
9 *Brett Hunter rhp Pepperdine U. 15-45
10 Matt Montgomery lhp Hart HS, Valencia 25-35
*Range varies because of existing injury
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
BONUSES ON UPSWING IN 2007
Monday May 5, 2008
Major League Baseball’s plan to suppress signing bonuses in the 2007 draft by implementing new draft rules and imposing a recommended across-the-board 10 percent rollback in bonus payments did not have its desired effect.

Signing bonuses to first-round picks actually rose in 2007, to a five-year high of $2,098, 167. Only in 2001 ($2,154,180) and 2002 ($2,106,793) has the first-round average been higher—years when runaway inflation on bonuses prompted MLB to enact new measures to control bonus payments.

The draft changes were incorporated as part of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement with the Players Association in 2006 and were aimed at depressing bonus payments by imposing deadlines and making it easier for teams to walk away from unfavorable deals without being penalized. Among the measures implemented was a unified signing deadline of Aug. 15, abolishment of the draft-and-follow process, and compensating teams that didn’t sign picks in the first three rounds with a corresponding selection in the following year’s draft.

MLB, however, wasn’t able to push through legislation to implement a binding cap on bonuses, similar to what exists in the NBA, which would have forced teams to abide by slotting guidelines. A majority of clubs abided by the guidelines recommended by the commissioner’s office, but a number of clubs did not and bonuses in the first round rose 8.5 percent from the previous year.

Not only did the first-round bonus average rise in 2007, but No. 1 overall pick David Price ($5.6 million) and No. 5 pick Matt Wieters ($6 million) signed the second and third largest bonuses ever awarded to draft picks signing with the same club that selected them. Only Justin Upton’s $6.1 million bonus, signed in 2005, was larger.

A complete list of signing bonuses paid to players in the first 10 rounds of the 2007 draft and 2006 draft is available to Perfect Game Crosschecker subscribers.

Following are the 10 largest signing bonuses paid out in 2007. The amounts are the actual cash bonuses paid, with no consideration given to the full value of major league contracts awarded (major league deals were signed by first-rounders David Price, Rick Porcello and Andrew Brackman, and supplemental first-rounder Julio Borbon).
Order Player Pos. School Drafted By (Pick) Signing Bonus
1 Matt Wieters c Georgia Tech Orioles (5) $6,000,000
2 *David Price lhp Vanderbilt Rays (1) 5,600,000
3 Mike Moustakas ss HS—Chatsworth, Calif. Royals (2) 4,000,000
4 *Rick Porcello rhp HS—Chester, N.J. Tigers (27) 3,580,000
5 *Andrew Brackman rhp North Carolina State Yankees (30) 3,350,000
6 Josh Vitters 3b HS—Anaheim Cubs (3) 3,200,000
7 Daniel Moskos lhp Clemson Pirates (4) 2,475,000
8 Ross Detwiler lhp Missouri State Nationals (6) 2,150,000
9 Jarrod Parker rhp HS—Bluffton, Ind. Diamondbacks (9) 2,100,000
10 Matt LaPorta 1b Florida Brewers (7) 2,000,000
  Madison Bumgarner lhp HS—Lenoir, N.C. Giants (10) 2,000,000
* Signed major league contract
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives