PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 17: 4/28/08 - 5/4/08
 
COLLEGE SENIORS: DRAFT WILD CARDS
Thursday May 1, 2008
College seniors are generally an overlooked and often unappreciated demographic in any baseball draft. With juniors automatically eligible for selection, most of the best talent in the college ranks is siphoned off before reaching their senior year. Big league clubs often look at college seniors as just roster fillers.

Last year was an exception as two of the top eight players drafted—Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta (Brewers) and Vanderbilt righthander Casey Weathers (Rockies)—were college seniors. In the previous five drafts, a total of only two college seniors were selected in the first round.

LaPorta and Weathers are representative of the twists of fate that often impact colleges seniors in the draft.

LaPorta was projected to be a first-round pick as a junior. But he struggled mightily at the plate throughout an injury-plagued 2006 season and slipped to the 14th round of that year’s draft. He gambled that he could restore all his value by returning to school for his senior year and he did that and then some, capitalizing on his decision by being selected by Milwaukee with the seventh overall pick in last year’s draft.

Weathers made a position change midway through his college career and it took until his senior year for everything to come together for him as a pitcher. An afterthought 25th round pick in the 2006 draft, Weathers became the eighth overall pick a year later.

The reasons why players often blossom into elite draft picks as college seniors are varied and range from simply being a late bloomer, to having a bounce-back year because of injury or subpar performance (draft-itis?) as a junior, to being lowballed with a signing-bonus offer the previous year, to wanting to complete their education before playing pro ball, to being a victim of quirky draft rules. College seniors also come cheap—an attractive feature for a club looking to save a little money in the early rounds in an era of bonus inflation.

The four highest-drafted college seniors on record are Southern catcher Danny Goodwin (Angels), the first overall pick in the 1975 draft; Colorado catcher John Stearns (Phillies), the second overall pick in 1973; Maine righthander Billy Swift (Mariners), the second overall pick in 1984; and Minnesota outfielder Dave Winfield (Padres), the fourth pick in 1973. LaPorta became the highest-drafted college senior in more than 20 years with his selection in 2007.

Because draft rules through 1975 prevented the drafting of college juniors unless the player had reached his 21st birthday within 45 days of the draft, Goodwin, Stearns and Winfield were not eligible to be drafted as juniors. With Swift, it was a matter of money. A second-round pick of the Minnesota Twins as a junior in 1983, he chose not to sign with the Twins in the same draft that the Twins were unable to sign righthander Tim Belcher, the No. 1 pick in the June regular phase, and outfielder Oddibe McDowell, the top pick in the June secondary phase.

It’s highly unlikely that a college senior will become one of the elite picks in this year’s draft, though dominating Georgia closer Josh Fields is expected to go somewhere in the lower half of the first round after being taken in the second round a year ago. Fields has been every bit as dominant as a senior as he was as a sophomore and hasn’t given up an earned run in 21 appearances this season. He has also has saved 12 games and struck out 42 in 22 innings. He went just 1-6, 4.46 with seven saves in a subpar junior year after being projected at the start of the 2007 season as an early first-rounder.

Other seniors whose draft stock could change considerably from 2007, based on performance this season, are Kentucky outfielder Sawyer Carroll and Texas A&M second baseman Blake Stouffer.

Carroll was an 18th-round pick of the Florida Nationals last year and has enjoyed an outstanding senior season (.431-12-63), which should improve his draft worth substantially. On the flip side, Stouffer has gone backwards as a senior after passing up a fourth-round offer from the Cincinnati Reds in 2007. A year ago, Stouffer played a variety of positions for the Aggies and hit .398-12-85 while leading the nation in RBIs. This year, he is hitting just .264-4-29.

Meanwhile, some of the nation’s best college seniors this year weren’t even drafted a year ago. The list includes the likes of Georgia Tech outfielder Charlie Blackmon, Nebraska righthander Johnny Dorn, Villanova righthander Jordan Ellis, Long Beach State righthander Andrew Liebel, Wichita State lefthander Rob Musgrave, Missouri outfielder Jacob Priday, Michigan first baseman Nick Recknagel, Oklahoma State first baseman Rebel Ridling, California second baseman Josh Satin and Florida State righthander Ryan Strauss. Most will work their way solidly into the top 10 rounds, with Liebel projected to go as early as the third round.

Trying to predict where college seniors will be drafted is even more of an inexact science as the draft itself as seniors have little or no leverage and teams will often draft a senior in the early rounds to keep their bonus budget in check. Typically, a college senior selected in the top five rounds will receive a bonus about two-thirds of the amount that a high school senior or college junior can expect from the same slot. Several seniors have been drafted in the top 10 rounds in recent years and received a bonus of just $1,000.

Here are the 10 highest unsigned draft picks from 2007 who returned this season as college seniors. A rough indication of where they may be drafted this year is noted.
Order Player Pos. School Drafted, 2007 Projected, 2008
1 Josh Fields rhp Georgia Braves (2) 1st round
2 Blake Stouffer 2b Texas A&M Reds (4) 4th-10th
3 Cole St. Clair lhp Rice Indians (7) 3rd-6th
4 Mike Stutes rhp Oregon State Cardinals (8)` 6th-10th
5 Eryk McConnell rhp North Carolina State Orioles (10) 6th-10th
6 Dominic de la Osa of Vanderbilt Tigers (10) 4th-8th
7 Matt Hague 3b Oklahoma State Indians (11) 6th-10th
8 David Clark rhp Southern Miss Angels (13) 10th-20th
9 Bobby LaFromboise lhp New Mexico Diamondbacks (14) 8th-12th
10 Doug Hogan c Clemson Indians (16) 6th-10th
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
POSEY FAVORITE FOR NO. 1
Tuesday April 29, 2008
The Tampa Bay Rays have the No. 1 pick in the draft for the second year in a row and while they’ve been tight-lipped publicly about the selection, there are growing indications that the Rays have targeted Florida State catcher Buster Posey.

Posey, who enrolled at Florida State primarily as a pitcher and spent his freshman year with the Seminoles as a shortstop, is enjoying a player-of-the-year caliber season at Florida State. He has been an offensive force in the middle of the Seminoles lineup, hitting .465-11-49 with 34 walks and just 12 strikeouts, and has evolved into a top-notch defender. He would be an ideal fit for Tampa Bay, filling a need behind the plate in an emerging organization.

Industry sources say the Rays are also bearing down on Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham for the No. 1 overall selection. Posey and Beckham (.427-20-48, 34 BB/16 SO) have earned consideration on merit as they have performed better this year than any college positions players, not just coveted middle-of-the-field players. Correspondingly, their draft stock has surged.

Their rise in stature is a far cry from three years ago, when Posey was a 50th-round afterthought and Beckham was passed over in the 2005 draft altogether. Both players played at Georgia high schools.

Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham (no relation to Gordon), Missouri righthander Aaron Crow and San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz were considered the cream of this year’s draft crop at the start of the 2008 season. All are expected to be premium picks still, but they’ve been upstaged to date by Posey and Beckham.

Alvarez, projected to be the No. 1 overall, has missed much of the 2008 season with a hamate-bone injury. While the injury isn’t expected to compromise his draft standing, his reported price tag could. With Scott Boras as his advisor, he may prove to be too expensive for the Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals, who have the first three picks this year.

While acknowledging the calendar has not turned to May, when teams traditionally start bearing down in earnest on the top prospects, it’s never too early to handicap the top 10 picks. Here’s a rough idea what’s percolating at the top of this year’s draft, scheduled for June 5-6:
Order Team Projected Pick Pos. School
1 Tampa Bay Rays Buster Posey C Florida State
2 Pittsburgh Pirates Pedro Alvarez 3B Vanderbilt
3 Kansas City Royals Aaron Crow RHP Missouri
4 Baltimore Orioles Brian Matusz LHP San Diego
5 San Francisco Giants Gordon Beckham SS Georgia
6 Florida Marlins Tim Beckham SS Griffin (Ga.) HS
7 Cincinnati Reds Justin Smoak 1B South Carolina
8 Chicago White Sox Shooter Hunt RHP Tulane
9 Washington Nationals Eric Hosmer 1B American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.
10 Houston Astros Tanner Scheppers RHP Fresno State
 
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
CHISENHALL TOPS JUCO LIST
Monday April 28, 2008
PG Crosschecker doesn’t kick off its 2008 draft coverage in earnest until Thursday, but we thought we’d give you a sneak preview of this year’s junior college crop. It’s a talented group, with three players who have drawn interest from scouts this spring as potential first-round picks.

Pitt (N.C.) Community College shortstop Lonnie Chisenhall, a 12th-round selection in the 2006 draft, and Howard (Texas) Junior College shortstop Tyler Ladendorf, a 34th-rounder a year ago, have asserted themselves as top position prospects with outstanding 2008 seasons and should be handsomely rewarded in this year’s draft, scheduled for June 5-6.

The plight of the third player, College of Southern Nevada righthander Colby Shreve, is less defined as he has been shelved for a month with an arm injury. The severity of the injury hasn’t been officially determined. Shreve’s situation should be resolved this week when he is scheduled to see Dr. James Andrew, the renowned Birmingham, Ala., orthopedic surgeon, who expects to determine the extent of Shreve’s elbow issue once and for all. Shreve, an eighth-round pick of the Atlanta Braves in 2007, is the only unsigned player drafted in the top 10 rounds a year ago who is attending junior college.

The junior college crop is a lot more cut and dried this year as the abolishment of the draft-and-follow rule, effective with last year’s draft, has prevented big league clubs from signing many of the top juco prospects prior to the draft. In the past, teams could draft a player who was earmarked for junior college and control his rights until a week before the following year’s draft before deciding whether to sign the player. Ladendorf and Shreve would have been eligible to sign prior to this year’s draft under the old system, while Chisenhall would not.

We provide a list of the top 10 junior college prospects here, but a complete list of the top 100 junior college prospects is available to subscribers elsewhere on the PG Crosschecker site.
Rank Player, Pos., Junior College Previously Drafted Projected Round
1 Lonnie Chisenhall, ss, Pitt (N.C.) CC Pirates ’06 (11) 1st-2nd
2 Tyler Ladendorf, ss, Howard (Texas) Giants ’07 (34) 1st-2nd
3 *Colby Shreve, rhp, Southern Nevada Braves ’07 (8) 1st-10th
4 Brett Moorhouse, rhp, Indian River (Fla.) Never drafted 3rd-4th
5 Taylor Cole, rhp, Southern Nevada Dodgers ’07 (26) 3rd-5th
6 Ben Jeffers, rhp, Chipola (Fla.) Braves ’05 (44) 4th-6th
7 Craig Kimbrel, rhp, Wallace-Hanceville (Ala.) Braves ’07 (33) 4th-6th
8 Aaron King, lhp, Surry (N.C.) Never drafted 4th-6th
9 Kyle Farrell, rhp, Western Nevada Never drafted 4th-6th
10 *Justin LaTempa, rhp, Golden West Never drafted 4th-10th
 
* Draft status may be impacted by existing injury
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives