| PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST |
| WEEK 17: 4/28/08 - 5/4/08 |
| |
| COLLEGE SENIORS: DRAFT WILD CARDS |
| Thursday May 1, 2008 |
College seniors are generally an overlooked and often unappreciated demographic
in any baseball draft. With juniors automatically eligible for selection, most
of the best talent in the college ranks is siphoned off before reaching their
senior year. Big league clubs often look at college seniors as just roster
fillers.
Last year was an exception as two of the top eight players drafted—Florida
first baseman Matt LaPorta (Brewers) and Vanderbilt righthander Casey Weathers
(Rockies)—were college seniors. In the previous five drafts, a total of only
two college seniors were selected in the first round.
LaPorta and Weathers are representative of the twists of fate that often impact
colleges seniors in the draft.
LaPorta was projected to be a first-round pick as a junior. But he struggled
mightily at the plate throughout an injury-plagued 2006 season and slipped to
the 14th round of that year’s draft. He gambled that he could restore all his
value by returning to school for his senior year and he did that and then some,
capitalizing on his decision by being selected by Milwaukee with the seventh
overall pick in last year’s draft.
Weathers made a position change midway through his college career and it took
until his senior year for everything to come together for him as a pitcher. An
afterthought 25th round pick in the 2006 draft, Weathers became the eighth
overall pick a year later.
The reasons why players often blossom into elite draft picks as college seniors
are varied and range from simply being a late bloomer, to having a bounce-back
year because of injury or subpar performance (draft-itis?) as a junior, to
being lowballed with a signing-bonus offer the previous year, to wanting to
complete their education before playing pro ball, to being a victim of quirky
draft rules. College seniors also come cheap—an attractive feature for a club
looking to save a little money in the early rounds in an era of bonus
inflation.
The four highest-drafted college seniors on record are Southern catcher Danny
Goodwin (Angels), the first overall pick in the 1975 draft; Colorado catcher
John Stearns (Phillies), the second overall pick in 1973; Maine righthander
Billy Swift (Mariners), the second overall pick in 1984; and Minnesota
outfielder Dave Winfield (Padres), the fourth pick in 1973. LaPorta became the
highest-drafted college senior in more than 20 years with his selection in
2007.
Because draft rules through 1975 prevented the drafting of college juniors
unless the player had reached his 21st birthday within 45 days of the draft,
Goodwin, Stearns and Winfield were not eligible to be drafted as juniors. With
Swift, it was a matter of money. A second-round pick of the Minnesota Twins as
a junior in 1983, he chose not to sign with the Twins in the same draft that
the Twins were unable to sign righthander Tim Belcher, the No. 1 pick in the
June regular phase, and outfielder Oddibe McDowell, the top pick in the June
secondary phase.
It’s highly unlikely that a college senior will become one of the elite picks
in this year’s draft, though dominating Georgia closer Josh Fields is expected
to go somewhere in the lower half of the first round after being taken in the
second round a year ago. Fields has been every bit as dominant as a senior as
he was as a sophomore and hasn’t given up an earned run in 21 appearances this
season. He has also has saved 12 games and struck out 42 in 22 innings. He went
just 1-6, 4.46 with seven saves in a subpar junior year after being projected
at the start of the 2007 season as an early first-rounder.
Other seniors whose draft stock could change considerably from 2007, based on
performance this season, are Kentucky outfielder Sawyer Carroll and Texas
A&M second baseman Blake Stouffer.
Carroll was an 18th-round pick of the Florida Nationals last year and has
enjoyed an outstanding senior season (.431-12-63), which should improve his
draft worth substantially. On the flip side, Stouffer has gone backwards as a
senior after passing up a fourth-round offer from the Cincinnati Reds in 2007.
A year ago, Stouffer played a variety of positions for the Aggies and hit
.398-12-85 while leading the nation in RBIs. This year, he is hitting just
.264-4-29.
Meanwhile, some of the nation’s best college seniors this year weren’t even
drafted a year ago. The list includes the likes of Georgia Tech outfielder
Charlie Blackmon, Nebraska righthander Johnny Dorn, Villanova righthander
Jordan Ellis, Long Beach State righthander Andrew Liebel, Wichita State
lefthander Rob Musgrave, Missouri outfielder Jacob Priday, Michigan first
baseman Nick Recknagel, Oklahoma State first baseman Rebel Ridling, California
second baseman Josh Satin and Florida State righthander Ryan Strauss. Most will
work their way solidly into the top 10 rounds, with Liebel projected to go as
early as the third round.
Trying to predict where college seniors will be drafted is even more of an
inexact science as the draft itself as seniors have little or no leverage and
teams will often draft a senior in the early rounds to keep their bonus budget
in check. Typically, a college senior selected in the top five rounds will
receive a bonus about two-thirds of the amount that a high school senior or
college junior can expect from the same slot. Several seniors have been drafted
in the top 10 rounds in recent years and received a bonus of just $1,000.
Here are the 10 highest unsigned draft picks from 2007 who returned this season
as college seniors. A rough indication of where they may be drafted this year
is noted.
|
| Order |
Player |
Pos. |
School |
Drafted, 2007 |
Projected, 2008 |
| 1 |
Josh Fields |
rhp |
Georgia |
Braves (2) |
1st round |
| 2 |
Blake Stouffer |
2b |
Texas A&M |
Reds (4) |
4th-10th |
| 3 |
Cole St. Clair |
lhp |
Rice |
Indians (7) |
3rd-6th |
| 4 |
Mike Stutes |
rhp |
Oregon State |
Cardinals (8)` |
6th-10th |
| 5 |
Eryk McConnell |
rhp |
North Carolina State |
Orioles (10) |
6th-10th |
| 6 |
Dominic de la Osa |
of |
Vanderbilt |
Tigers (10) |
4th-8th |
| 7 |
Matt Hague |
3b |
Oklahoma State |
Indians (11) |
6th-10th |
| 8 |
David Clark |
rhp |
Southern Miss |
Angels (13) |
10th-20th |
| 9 |
Bobby LaFromboise |
lhp |
New Mexico |
Diamondbacks (14) |
8th-12th |
| 10 |
Doug Hogan |
c |
Clemson |
Indians (16) |
6th-10th |
|
| --ALLAN SIMPSON |
Top Ten List Archives |
|
|
| POSEY FAVORITE FOR NO. 1 |
| Tuesday April 29, 2008 |
 The Tampa
Bay Rays have the No. 1 pick in the draft for the second year in a row and
while they’ve been tight-lipped publicly about the selection, there are growing
indications that the Rays have targeted Florida State catcher Buster Posey.
Posey, who enrolled at Florida State primarily as a pitcher and spent his
freshman year with the Seminoles as a shortstop, is enjoying a
player-of-the-year caliber season at Florida State. He has been an offensive
force in the middle of the Seminoles lineup, hitting .465-11-49 with 34 walks
and just 12 strikeouts, and has evolved into a top-notch defender. He would be
an ideal fit for Tampa Bay, filling a need behind the plate in an emerging
organization.
Industry sources say the Rays are also bearing down on Georgia shortstop Gordon
Beckham for the No. 1 overall selection. Posey and Beckham (.427-20-48, 34
BB/16 SO) have earned consideration on merit as they have performed better this
year than any college positions players, not just coveted middle-of-the-field
players. Correspondingly, their draft stock has surged.
Their rise in stature is a far cry from three years ago, when Posey was a
50th-round afterthought and Beckham was passed over in the 2005 draft
altogether. Both players played at Georgia high schools.
Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, Georgia high school shortstop Tim
Beckham (no relation to Gordon), Missouri righthander Aaron Crow and San Diego
lefthander Brian Matusz were considered the cream of this year’s draft crop at
the start of the 2008 season. All are expected to be premium picks still, but
they’ve been upstaged to date by Posey and Beckham.
Alvarez, projected to be the No. 1 overall, has missed much of the 2008 season
with a hamate-bone injury. While the injury isn’t expected to compromise his
draft standing, his reported price tag could. With Scott Boras as his advisor,
he may prove to be too expensive for the Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas
City Royals, who have the first three picks this year.
While acknowledging the calendar has not turned to May, when teams
traditionally start bearing down in earnest on the top prospects, it’s never
too early to handicap the top 10 picks. Here’s a rough idea what’s percolating
at the top of this year’s draft, scheduled for June 5-6:
|
| Order |
Team |
Projected Pick |
Pos. |
School |
| 1 |
Tampa Bay Rays |
Buster Posey |
C |
Florida State |
| 2 |
Pittsburgh Pirates |
Pedro Alvarez |
3B |
Vanderbilt |
| 3 |
Kansas City Royals |
Aaron Crow |
RHP |
Missouri |
| 4 |
Baltimore Orioles |
Brian Matusz |
LHP |
San Diego |
| 5 |
San Francisco Giants |
Gordon Beckham |
SS |
Georgia |
| 6 |
Florida Marlins |
Tim Beckham |
SS |
Griffin (Ga.) HS |
| 7 |
Cincinnati Reds |
Justin Smoak |
1B |
South Carolina |
| 8 |
Chicago White Sox |
Shooter Hunt |
RHP |
Tulane |
| 9 |
Washington Nationals |
Eric Hosmer |
1B |
American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla. |
| 10 |
Houston Astros |
Tanner Scheppers |
RHP |
Fresno State |
| |
|
| --ALLAN SIMPSON |
Top Ten List Archives |
|
|
| CHISENHALL TOPS JUCO LIST |
| Monday April 28, 2008 |
PG Crosschecker doesn’t kick off its 2008 draft
coverage in earnest until Thursday, but we thought we’d give you a sneak
preview of this year’s junior college crop. It’s a talented group, with three
players who have drawn interest from scouts this spring as potential
first-round picks.
Pitt (N.C.) Community College shortstop Lonnie Chisenhall, a 12th-round
selection in the 2006 draft, and Howard (Texas) Junior College shortstop Tyler
Ladendorf, a 34th-rounder a year ago, have asserted themselves as top position
prospects with outstanding 2008 seasons and should be handsomely rewarded in
this year’s draft, scheduled for June 5-6.
The plight of the third player, College of Southern Nevada righthander Colby
Shreve, is less defined as he has been shelved for a month with an arm injury.
The severity of the injury hasn’t been officially determined. Shreve’s
situation should be resolved this week when he is scheduled to see Dr. James
Andrew, the renowned Birmingham, Ala., orthopedic surgeon, who expects to
determine the extent of Shreve’s elbow issue once and for all. Shreve, an
eighth-round pick of the Atlanta Braves in 2007, is the only unsigned player
drafted in the top 10 rounds a year ago who is attending junior college.
The junior college crop is a lot more cut and dried this year as the
abolishment of the draft-and-follow rule, effective with last year’s draft, has
prevented big league clubs from signing many of the top juco prospects prior to
the draft. In the past, teams could draft a player who was earmarked for junior
college and control his rights until a week before the following year’s draft
before deciding whether to sign the player. Ladendorf and Shreve would have
been eligible to sign prior to this year’s draft under the old system, while
Chisenhall would not.
We provide a list of the top 10 junior college prospects here, but a complete
list of the top 100 junior college prospects is available to subscribers
elsewhere on the PG Crosschecker site.
|
| Rank |
Player, Pos., Junior College |
Previously Drafted |
Projected Round |
| 1 |
Lonnie Chisenhall, ss, Pitt (N.C.) CC |
Pirates ’06 (11) |
1st-2nd |
| 2 |
Tyler Ladendorf, ss, Howard (Texas) |
Giants ’07 (34) |
1st-2nd |
| 3 |
*Colby Shreve, rhp, Southern Nevada |
Braves ’07 (8) |
1st-10th |
| 4 |
Brett Moorhouse, rhp, Indian River (Fla.) |
Never drafted |
3rd-4th |
| 5 |
Taylor Cole, rhp, Southern Nevada |
Dodgers ’07 (26) |
3rd-5th |
| 6 |
Ben Jeffers, rhp, Chipola (Fla.) |
Braves ’05 (44) |
4th-6th |
| 7 |
Craig Kimbrel, rhp, Wallace-Hanceville (Ala.) |
Braves ’07 (33) |
4th-6th |
| 8 |
Aaron King, lhp, Surry (N.C.) |
Never drafted |
4th-6th |
| 9 |
Kyle Farrell, rhp, Western Nevada |
Never drafted |
4th-6th |
| 10 |
*Justin LaTempa, rhp, Golden West |
Never drafted |
4th-10th |
| |
|
| * Draft status may be impacted by existing injury |
| --ALLAN SIMPSON |
Top Ten List Archives |
|
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