Draft Status Tells Only Part of Story

By DAVID RAWNSLEY

It frequently happens that a college player is picked in the first round after never having been drafted before. The immediate reaction from many fans is, “That prospect must have really improved in college; he wasn’t even drafted out of high school!” Or maybe it’s not as extreme, but the college first-rounder was an afterthought 38^th-round pick three years previously.

There are instances where a player improves so much in three years of playing college ball that he goes from a non-professional prospect to a first-rounder. But most often the story is more complicated than that. Tracking how college first-rounders got to where they are from not signing, or even being considered a potential draft, is an interesting exercise.

Looking at the backgrounds of the top college player picked in the last 10 drafts provides a variety of different scenarios when those players were in high school.

2006--Luke Hochevar, rhp, Kansas City (1^st overall). Hochevar, whose father played in the old American Basketball Association and whose sister is a pro volleyball player, was better known at a Colorado high school in 2002 as an all-state basketball player when the Dodgers made him an afterthought 39^th-round pick. He made major strides in his development as a pitcher in three years at Tennessee, but didn’t sign until a year later, when he was the top pick by Kansas City .

2005—Alex Gordon, 3b, Kansas City (2^nd overall). Gordon was the Nebraska High School Athlete of the Year as a senior after sweeping all-state honors in baseball, basketball and football. But he went undrafted altogether in 2002 because of signability reasons; he lived virtually down the street from the Nebraska campus and went on to excel in a three-year career with the Cornhuskers.

2004—Justin Verlander, rhp, Detroit (2^nd overall). Verlander’s velocity dropped from 93 to 86 mph between his junior and senior seasons at a Virginia high school due to illness, leaving him undrafted in 2001 and no option other than to fulfill his commitment to Old Dominion.

2003—Rickie Weeks, 2b, Milwaukee (2^nd overall). Weeks went to Lake Brantley High, a heavily-scouted high school in Florida , and not only did he go undrafted in 2000 but he was essentially unrecruited. He ended up at Southern University, got stronger and blossomed overnight into a top college talent.

2002—Bryan Bullington, rhp, Pittsburgh (1^st overall). Bullington was Indiana’s Mr. Baseball in 1999, but he was also all-state in basketball while playing for his father, not a small thing in basketball-crazed Indiana . He was a 37^th-round pick by Kansas City in the ’99 draft before going to Ball State and resurfacing as the top pick three years later.

2001—Mark Prior, rhp, Chicago-N (2^nd overall). Prior was a first-round compensation pick by the Yankees (40^th overall) out of a California high school in 1998 but chose to go to Vanderbilt for a year before transferring back to USC, where he blossomed as a sophomore and junior.

2000—Adam Johnson, rhp, Minnesota (2^nd overall). Johnson was widely considered a signability pick by the Twins, who had also selected him in the 25^th round out of a California high school three years earlier.

1999—Eric Munson, c, Detroit (3^rd overall). Munson turned down second-round money from the Braves out of a California high school in 1996 to play for USC for three years; his prep teammate Eric Chavez signed in the first round the same year.

1998—Pat Burrell, 1b, Philadelphia (1^st overall). Burrell was a 43^rd-round pick of the Red Sox out of a California high school in 1995, but was firmly committed to playing at Miami .

1997—Matt Anderson, rhp, Detroit (1^st overall). After Anderson rose to prominence as a Rice reliever, scouts who saw him in high school in Louisville, Ky., described him as a hard-throwing but wild prospect with poor mechanics as a youngster. He reverted to that form with the Tigers in an unfulfilled big league career.

In summary, four of the last 10 top college picks were not drafted out of high school, four were picked as late-round selections and two turned down top-round money to go to college.

The Class of 2007

With that variety of backgrounds in mind, let’s take a look at a selection of potential college first-round picks in the 2007 class and assess what they were doing in high school.

David Price, lhp, Vanderbilt. Price attended the East Coast Pro Showcase in Wilmington, N.C., in the summer of 2003 and was well know to scouts. In fact, he was ranked No. 51 overall in the 2004 high school class by Perfect Game. But the hyper-athletic Price (he was a three-time county athlete of the year in Tennessee , as much for his basketball prowess as baseball) was firm in his commitment to Vanderbilt and had no problem turning down the Dodgers offer as a 19^th-round selection.

Andrew Brackman, rhp, North Carolina State . There was plenty of talk in 2004 of the then 6-foot-9, 200-pound Brackman throwing 93-94 mph in high school. But he was rarely, if ever, seen outside of Ohio due in large part to his equally promising basketball career. He went undrafted before attending college and changing his career path at North Carolina State .

Matt Wieters, c, Georgia Tech. Perfect Game had Wieters as the No. 20 high school prospect in the country before the 2004 draft, a ranking that PG director Jerry Ford considered too low at the time. Wieters’ iron-clad commitment to Georgia Tech kept him from being drafted at all.

Daniel Moskos, lhp, Clemson. Clemson recruiting coordinator Kevin O’Sullivan  learned about Moskos, a modest California high school prospect, via an e-mail from Moskos’ dad, a Clemson alum. O’Sullivan offered Moskos, who went undrafted, a scholarship after seeing him throw a bullpen for his local summer league club without ever having seen him pitch in a game.

Julio Borbon, of, Tennessee . Borbon wasn’t drafted out of high school because he was never draft eligible, having gone to school in his native Dominican Republic . He did however, play on the Memphis-based Dulin’s Dodgers summer/fall club in the World Wood Bat Association 18-and-under championship in the summer of 2003 and in the WWBA fall championship in Jupiter, Fla., so had become well known to scouts and college recruiters.

Josh Fields, rhp, Georgia . Fields suffered from the “6-foot Righthander Syndrome” in high school and went undrafted, although he was throwing 94-95 mph in relief at the 2004 WWBA 18-and-under national championship. He was also a talented shortstop, though he hasn’t played that position at Georgia .

Joe Savery, lhp, Rice. Savery was considered a potential top 3 round pick by many teams in 2004 but his commitment to Rice was considered too strong, though the Dodgers did spend a 15^th-round pick on him. Just think of the Dodgers prospect list entering this season if they had signed Savery and Price in 2004, along with Luke Hochevar in 2002/2005.

Matt Mangini, 3b, Oklahoma State . Mangini went undrafted out of Apex High in North Carolina, before enrolling at nearby North Carolina State . Listed then at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, the lefthanded-hitting Mangini played with the North Carolina Red Sox at the 2003 WWBA fall championship Jupiter and had the following PG scouting notes: “Well proportioned, tall build, 4.46 runner, pull power, quick bat, uses his hands well, + defense, + arm, good range.” Sounds like he was a prospect back then, too!

Ross Detwiler, lhp, Missouri State . Here are Detwiler’s scouting notes from the 2003 WWBA fall championship in Jupiter, where he pitched for the Midwest Prospects: “6-4, 175, weak chest, long arms and legs, room to add strength, FB 86-90, 74 CB, 81 CH, high ¾ release, excellent run on FB, spike CB, some command issues.” PG had him ranked No. 83 in the 2004 high school class, but he went undrafted. It’s hard to understand why, based on being a 6-foot-4 projectable lefty throwing 90.

Casey Weathers, rhp, Vanderbilt. Weathers went undrafted in 2003 out of high school in Sacramento, Calif., and was a reserve outfielder as a freshman at Sacramento City College , appearing in only 18 games. He began the conversion to a full-time pitcher a year later but entering this season had still thrown only 59 college innings. Now a senior, Weathers has emerged as the hardest thrower in the country this spring among college pitchers, regularly pitching in the upper 90s.

Jordan Zimmerman, rhp, Wisconsin Stevens-Point. Zimmerman was throwing 80-81 mph as a high school senior when he was cut from the Wisconsin Blazers travel team by PG’s Kirk Gardner. After attending Division III Wisconsin Stevens-Point, he’s now throwing in the mid-90s and is a potential first-round pick. Sometimes it just happens that way!

Aaron Poreda, lhp, San Francisco . Poreda is one of the many strong-armed lefthanders in the country and throws in the mid-90s frequently, although his secondary pitches may relegate him to the sandwich/second-round area. Poreda originally went to USF as a non-scholarship walk-on throwing in the mid-80s when PG’s Blaine Clemmens was an assistant coach at that school.

Josh Donaldson, c, Auburn . Donaldson has been one of the fastest risers in this year’s college draft class, as scouts have been sold on his catching ability after the former infielder moved behind the plate on more or less a full-time basis. Donaldson was a middle infielder in high school and a good one, although he went undrafted. He attended the 2003 PG World Showcase and this was the report filed: “Wow, a giant surprise to us! This kid is a draft prospect! He runs, has a big-time plus arm from the infield, can hit and flashes power. Very athletic body and good actions in the field and at the plate. Excellent prospect who could end up being a good draft pick. Can play for any college in the country.”

Sean Morgan, rhp, Tulane. Morgan is quickly rising to near the top of what has been an undistinguished college righthanded crop this spring, based on his 6-1, 1.84 record with 79 strikeouts and 33 hits allowed in 53 innings. Morgan was the No. 33-ranked prospect in the 2004 high school class by PG after he threw 88-91 mph with a plus-plus low 80s slider at the 2003 WWBA fall championship in Jupiter while pitching for the Houston Heat. He shared the tournament most valuable pitcher award that year with top Milwaukee Brewers prospect Yovani Gallardo. Morgan was a 25^th-round pick of the Brewers in 2004.

Sam Demel, rhp, Texas Christian. Morgan was No. 33, Demel No. 35 in the 2004 PG high school rankings. Demel’s full-time switch to the TCU bullpen this spring has bumped his fastball up to the mid-90s and his curveball has been unhittable most of the time, leading to 38 strikeouts in 21 innings. Here are Demel’s notes from Jupiter in 2003: “90-92 FB, 78 CB, 81 CH. Shows three quality pitches. Lots of run and sink, quick arm.  High draft guy! Demel was a 29^th-round pick of the Brewers in 2004, just after Morgan. Think of that already prospect-laden organization if they had signed Morgan and Demel in addition to Gallardo.

Kyle Russell, of, Texas . The NCAA’s leading home run hitter this spring has emerged as the top draft prospect from the list of draft-eligible sophomores this year. He was a teammate of Morgan’s at the 2003 WWBA fall championship in Jupiter and one of the offensive stars of the event. His scouting notes: “Power to all fields, bat speed, fields well, can run, short quick hands to the ball, power the other way, good lefthanded swing.” Russell was the No. 62 prospect in the PG 2005 class but went undrafted.