WILL GERRIT COLE MOVE ONTO LIST OF ELITE PREP PITCHERS?

By David Rawnsley

There was a recent column comparing 2008 first base prospect Eric Hosmer (American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.) to some of the top high school hitters over the last 20 years. The conclusion, for me at least, was that Hosmer deserves to be compared to players such as Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young and Alex Rodriguez, all former No. 1 overall draft picks, at the same age.

That gives rise to the question of whether there are any high school pitching prospects in the 2008 draft class that should be given the same consideration.

The first factor is that history shows us that high school pitchers picked in the first round are a big risk—a significantly bigger risk than high school hitters or any other demographic.

The last 20 years are full of highly-regarded high school pitchers who didn’t come close to pitching in big leagues. Lefthander Brien Taylor (first overall in 1991), righthanders Matt White ($10.2 million as a “loophole” free agent in 1996) and Chris Gruler (#3 in 2002 in one of the best high school classes ever) are classic examples. Looking at the first high school pitcher picked from 1989-2007 reveals only two, Kerry Wood (1995) and Josh Beckett (1999), that have become consistent big league pitchers.

That doesn’t mean that there aren’t some very good future big leaguers picked out of high school in the first round. The 2002 draft that had Gruler going No. 3 also had Zach Greinke (No. 6), Scott Kazmir (No. 15), Cole Hamels (No. 17) and Matt Cain (No. 25). Roy Halladay went 13 picks after Kerry Wood in 1995. Chad Billingsley was the 24^th pick in 2003. Chris Carpenter went No. 15 in 1993—seven picks after Elvis’ distant cousin, Kirk Presley, who washed out.

Here’s a look at the drafts from 1989 to 2007, just like we did with Hosmer and hitters, and who were the top high school pitchers selected, plus some other first rounders:

2007: RHP Jarrod Parker (No. 9), LHP Madison Bumgarner (No. 10), RHP Philippe Aumont (No. 11) and RHP Rick Porcello (No. 29). Porcello was hands down the consensus top pitching prospect in this year’s draft but fell to the Tigers because of signability considerations. He should be on any short list of highly-acclaimed young pitchers of the last 20 years.

2006: LHP Clayton Kershaw (No. 7), LHP Kasey Kiker (No. 12) and RHP Jeremy Jeffress (No. 16). Jeffress was the hardest thrower in a hard-throwing class, touching 100 mph many times, but Kershaw looks like a fast track big leaguer at this point.

2005: RHP Chris Volstad (No. 16). Only three high school pitchers were selected in the first round of this thin class.

2004: RHP Mark Rogers (No. 5) and Homer Bailey (No. 7). The primary difference between Rogers and Bailey to this point is Rogers has thrown 100 but has been hurt; Bailey has been healthy and pitched in the big leagues this year.

2003: LHP John Danks (No. 9), RHP Jeff Allison (No. 16) and RHP Chad Billingsley (No. 24). Allison’s career has taken the Josh Hamilton path, without the comeback yet. Billingsley, who was downgraded for his lack of size and low release point, looks like the top first-round guy so far.

2002: RHP Chris Gruler (No. 3), LHP Andrew Loewen (No. 4), RHP Clint Everts (No. 5), RHP Zach Greinke (No. 6), LHP Scott Kazmir (No. 15), LHP Cole Hamels (No. 17) and RHP Matt Cain (No. 25). This is one of the top high school first round pitching classes ever, despite the fact that two top five picks, Gruler and Everts, have not developed so far. Kazmir and Greinke received the most pre-draft hype, which in hindsight seems like good scouting judgment.

2001: RHP Gavin Floyd (No. 4), RHP Colt Griffin (No. 9) and RHP Jeremy Bonderman (No. 26). Griffin flamed out as quickly as his 100 fastball attracted scouts in the spring, while Floyd’s performance has never matched his top-notch stuff.

2000: LHP Mike Stodolka (No. 4), RHP Matt Harrington (No. 7), RHP Matt Wheatland (No. 8), LHP Mark Phillips (No. 9) and LHP Joe Torres (No. 10). Scouts loved the high school pitchers in 2000 so much that they picked five of them in the first 10 picks. They were wrong as none has come even close to the big leagues. This group was low-lighted by the Harrington signing fiasco.

1999: RHP Josh Beckett (No. 2), LHP Josh Girdley (No. 6), RHP Bobby Bradley (No. 8) and RHP Brett Myers (No. 12). Beckett was a coin flip to become the only high school righthander ever drafted with the first overall pick, but Tampa Bay chose Josh Hamilton instead. Beckett went second to the Marlins.

1998: RHP J.M. Gold (No. 13) and LHP C.C. Sabathia (No. 20). Only two high school pitchers among the top 29 picks—one a Cy Young Award winner, the other not.

1997: LHP Geoff Goetz (No. 6), RHP Jon Garland (No. 10) and LHP Ryan Anderson (No. 19). The 6-foot-11 Anderson was the top prospect in this group but signability slid him to the Mariners and arm injuries eventually doomed his career.

1996: RHP John Patterson (No. 5), RHP Matt White (No. 7) and RHP Adam Eaton (No. 11). Patterson and White became celebrated “loophole” free agents when not properly tendered contracts; both (White $10.2 million, Patterson $6.1 million) became instant multi-millionaires, but neither has come close to justifying the investment.

1995: RHP Kerry Wood (No. 4) and RHP Roy Halladay (No. 17). Wood ranks among the most acclaimed high school pitchers ever and his early career certainly backed that up. But Halladay has easily surpassed him.

1994: LHP Doug Million (No. 7), RHP Jaret Wright (No. 10) and RHP Scott Elarton (No. 25). Million’s career and life were cut short by an asthma attack. Elarton slid because of signability reasons but may have been the most highly regarded of the group.

1993: RHP Kirk Presley (No. 8), RHP Chris Carpenter (No. 15). Big Jeff D’Amico (No. 23) was the big focus coming into the spring, while Carpenter was a late-closing prospect from the New Hampshire.

1992: RHP Jim Pittsley (No. 17). Absolutely one of the worst high school pitching groups ever.

1991: LHP Brien Taylor (No. 1), RHP Kenny Henderson (No. 5) and Shawn Estes (No. 11). Double-edged disappointment as Taylor’s injuries and Henderson’s makeup busted the top of the draft class.

1990: RHP Kurt Miller (No. 5), LHP Ron Walden (No. 9) and RHP Todd Van Poppel (No. 14). Van Poppel was one of the most touted pitching prospects ever and even received an unprecedented big league contract from then A’s GM Sandy Alderson after he slid from the No. 1 spot for signability reasons.

1989: RHP Roger Salkeld (No. 3), RHP Jeff Juden (No. 12) and RHP Kiki Jones (No. 15). An interesting mix of bad deliveries (Salkeld), giants (Juden, a 6-foot-8 bad boy) and sub 6-footer (the 5-9 Jones). None was successful.

A list of the most acclaimed and highly-regarded high school pitchers at the time of the draft would include the following: Van Poppel, Taylor, Wood, White, Anderson, Beckett, Floyd, Porcello and Harrington. Only Beckett has been an unqualified success at the big league level, with four (Taylor, White, Anderson and Harrington) not even reaching the big leagues.

Does anyone in the 2008 class measure up this varied but talented group of teenage pitching prospects?

Before the WWBA Fall Championship in Jupiter, Fla., in late October, righthander Tim Melville (Wentzville, Mo.) was the highest-ranked pitcher on Perfect Game’s list of pitching prospects, with righthanders Gerrit Cole (Santa Ana, Calif.), Michael Palazzone (Marietta, Ga.) and Alex Meyer (Greensburg, Ind.), and lefthander Brett DeVall (Niceville, Fla.) close behind.

Neither Melville nor Meyer pitched in Jupiter. DeVall and Palazzone both did and were outstanding, essentially matching their established talent/performance levels. The pitcher who really helped his status in the scouting community was the 6-foot-3, 190-pound Cole, who threw twice (four innings total) in front of huge groups of scouts as part of the champion Braves Scout Team.

Cole certainly has the raw stuff to think that he might join Beckett, Wood, etc., on the “Most Acclaimed” list. His fastball was consistently in the 95-97 mph range with outstanding movement and life. He threw both an upper 80s slider and low 80s curveball, plus a promising changeup, to show that he had all the pitching weapons. His extended mid three-quarters release point will be examined as different from standard by scouts, but Cole’s arm is extremely loose and free.

The question for Cole (Orange Lutheran HS, Orange, Calif.) between now and next June will be establishing a track record of going deep into pitch counts or risk the possibility of being labeled a future closer. He threw only 27 innings as a high school junior and has very rarely extended himself into the 75-100 pitch area. If Cole does that next spring for Orange Lutheran High, he could very well cement a spot in the “Most Acclaimed” group.

Not that membership in that group is a guarantee of future major league success. But it’s certainly a lucrative start.