ERIC HOSMER–A SPECIAL HITTER

By David Rawnsley

According to the Perfect Game data base, the 2007 World Wood Bat Association Fall Championship in Jupiter, Fla., from Oct. 24-28 will be top prospect Eric Hosmer’s 16^th PG/WWBA event dating back to June 2005, when he attended the Sunshine East Showcase just after completing his freshman year at American Heritage High. At that point, Hosmer was 6-foot-1, 185 pounds and while an impressive young prospect, he was not a sure thing by any means. Here is the report I wrote after that event:

Eric Hosmer is a 2008 1B/LHP from American Heritage HS in Cooper City, FL, with a 6'1", 185 lb. frame. He has a very good baseball body and still has years to mature. Defensively he has smooth actions with athletic movements around the first base bag. He also has good arm strength for a 1B with good carry. At the plate he hits from the left side with an open stance and very good bat speed. His swing is very fundamentally sound and he looks very comfortable in the batter's box. Hosmer has the adjustability with his hands to go with the pitch and drive the ball to the opposite field. He consistently makes solid contact, and has projectable power, and should be a middle of the order run producer. On the mound, he throws from a 3/4 arm slot with good mechanics. His fastball topped out at 83 mph, and has projectable velocity. He also showed a feel for his secondary pitches that are still developing. Hosmer projects to be a top two-way prospect, and is a must follow.

Now, two and a half years later, Hosmer is a chiseled 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds and I don’t know whether I’ve seen a more impressive 17-year-old hitter in the last 20 years, and I’ve seen most of the best ones at that age. The report I wrote after the Perfect Game National Showcase last June in Cincinnati says most of it.

Eric Hosmer is a 2008 1B/P with a 6'4'', 210 lb. frame from Cooper City, FL who attends American Heritage HS. He has a Big League body, with excellent strength and proportions and is in top level shape. Hosmer did nothing in Cincinnati to make anyone question that he is the top hitter in the 2008 class. He is a pure hitter with bat speed, confidence and a very mature ability to adjust to different pitches and make solid contact to all fields. Hosmer realizes he doesn't have to show his light tower power every swing but it's there if he sees his pitch. There haven't been many better in the last generation of high school hitting prospects in our opinion. Lost in the talk about Hosmer's hitting ability as a prospect are his other tools. He is an outstanding defensive first baseman with light feet and soft hands and polished balance round the bag. He threw 92 mph from first in infield drills, which is unheard of from a first baseman, and we've heard he's thrown up to 94 mph this summer from the mound from the left side, although he didn't pitch in Cincinnati. Hosmer has a verbal commmitment to Arizona State but he should be one of the top picks in the 2008 draft if nothing steps in his way. Selected to 2007 Aflac All-American team.

So who should Hosmer be compared to when looking at the top high school-age hitters of the last 20 years? To answer that, I’m going to look at the last 20 drafts and analyze the top high school picks who were selected near the top of the first round based on their bats and hitting ability/potential.

To give some perspective in this exercise, Hosmer is going to be drafted based on his hitting—plane and simple. If shortstop Tim Beckham (Griffin, Ga., HS), catcher Kyle Skipworth (Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.), outfielder Aaron Hicks (Woodrow Wilson HS, Long Beach, Calif.) or any number of other talented position prospects are drafted ahead of Hosmer, it’s because they are premium position players (shortstop, catcher and center field) who combine outstanding bats with premium defensive skills and athletic ability. Suffice to say that if Hosmer played shortstop and ran 6.33 in the 60 like Beckham, we’d be talking about a different class of prospect than we may have ever seen before. And that’s no offense to Beckham’s bat.

2007 Top Hitters. Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters, Michael Burgess. The Moose was the first high school player picked, scouts labeled Vitters the top hitter all spring and Burgess carried, then dropped, the title leading up to the draft. The powerfully-built Burgess could become the Prince Fielder of this group.

2006: Billy Rowell, Travis Snider. The 6-foot-6 Rowell was picked ahead of the 6-foot, 245-pound Snider, but Snider is the better pure hitter when you get beyond the beauty contest.

2005: Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce. This was a draft for the ages for athletic high school outfielders. Bruce may be the top pure hitter in this group, Upton and Maybin have shot through the minors as much on their freakish athletic ability as their natural hitting tools.

2004: Billy Butler. There were higher high school picks—Matt Bush, definitely not a hitter, for example—and even Butler was a big surprise where he was drafted No. 14. He has to hit as he’s already a DH at age 22 and he did as a rookie in Kansas City. A very weak year for hitters overall.

2003: Delmon Young, Ian Stewart, Lastings Milledge, Matt Moses. Lots of talented position prospects, as Chris Lubanski and Ryan Harvey were also top 10 picks. Young was the No. 1 overall pick based on his bat.

2002: B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Scott Moore, Jeremy Hermida. Upton wasn’t chosen No. 2 because of his bat, although he certainly looks like an all-star level hitter now. Hindsight smiles on Fielder but Milwaukee and their brilliant scouting director Jack Zduriencik were pretty much panned for picking him with the 7^th overall pick.

2001: Joe Mauer, Casey Kotchman. Hosmer is likely to be frequently compared to Kotchman, a 6-foot-3 lefthanded-hitting first baseman from Florida who was the Angels pick at No. 13. Having seen both at the same stages of their development, Hosmer is clearly the better hitting prospect and the better athlete. Kotchman is a career .267 hitter in the major leagues with 19 home runs in 765 at-bats to this point in his career and I think Hosmer will easily surpass that when he’s the same age.

2000: Adrian Gonzalez, Luis Montanez. Gonzalez was thought to be a signability pick, but in retrospect is by far the best of one of the worst high school talent crops in history. There were 18 high school players picked in the first round; of that group, Boof Bonser and Adam Wainwright are the only two established big leaguers in the group aside from Gonzalez.

1999: Josh Hamilton, Corey Myers, B.J. Garbe. If 2000 was bad, 1999 was worse. Until Hamilton’s amazing “comeback” this year, Josh Beckett was the only one of the top seven high school picks who had even played in the big leagues. No wonder teams don’t like high school players; it all dates back to 1999-2000. But as it relates to Hosmer, Hamilton’s 2007 performance, after essentially not hitting for 4-5 years, shows just what kind of pure hitter he was back in 1999.

1998: Austin Kearns, Sean Burroughs. Corey Patterson was picked thirdoverall, but not for his hitting. And Kearns was primarily a pitcher until his senior year.

1997: Vernon Wells, J.J. Davis. Another shallow group.

1996: Eric Chavez, Rob Stratton, Dee Brown. Chavez was looked upon as a sure thing and has flashed that ability as a big leaguer, although without much consistency.

1995: Jaime Jones, Chad Hermansen. Jones had all the tools to hit and was drafted accordingly—No. 6 overall by Florida. But his ability far outstripped his desire to play.

1994: Ben Grieve, Josh Booty, Paul Konerko. You could have put Grieve, Jaime Jones (1995) and Shawn Green (1991) into a bag, shaken them up and not been able to tell the difference coming out of high school. Konerko was a catcher at this point in his career but had “hitter” written all over him.

1993: Alex Rodriguez, Trot Nixon, Derrek Lee. Wow, now you have some hitters. Rodriguez wasn’t a unanimous No. 1/No. 1 pick (Darren Dreifort had his fans) but he stood out in a unique way with the bat.

1992: Preston Wilson. Derek Jeter was the first high school player picked but it wasn’t on his bat. Never heard of Eddie Pearson? This draft was so devoid of hitters that the White Sox picked a 6-foot-3, 285-pound junior college first baseman in the first round.

1991: Dmitri Young, Manny Ramirez, Cliff Floyd, Shawn Green. A great year for high school hitters and one of great contrasts. Young was as acclaimed in his day as younger brother Delmon was later, Ramirez was either loved or hated (sound familiar?), Floyd was an incredible raw athlete from inner city Chicago and Green the polished Orange County boy.

1990: Chipper Jones, Tony Clark, Marc Newfield. Todd Van Poppel was “The Guy” in 1990 and Jones was a compromise pick when Van Poppel proved unsignable. Nice to get a future Hall of Famer in that position.

1989: Tyler Houston, Paul Coleman, Earl Cunningham. Just a horrible draft, especially for high school hitters.

So looking back, who do we have to compare Hosmer to in terms of being an elite-level high school hitter? The No. 1 overall picks stand out and have to be included—Delmon Young, Alex Rodriguez, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Chipper Jones, Josh Hamilton. Mauer has never projected power and was drafted as a hyper-athletic catcher and isn’t a real comparison. Chavez could realistically be put in the comp mix as he was incredibly dominant and highly regarded as a teenager. The 1991 and 2005 groups were so athletic and talented that it’s fun to look at them, but there is hindsight involved.

For me, you’re comparing Hosmer to players like Rodriguez and Josh Hamilton, with some Delmon Young at the same age mixed in. That’s a hard group to fit into. Rodriguez is difficult to compare with anyone in the history of baseball. Hamilton, for pretty much the opposite reasons, is equally incomparable. Young is still defining himself, swinging between high and lows in many regards.

That’s all part of evaluating 17 year old prospects and part of the risk factor. But for me, Hosmer compares favorably with just about any 17-year-old hitter I’ve seen develop in the United States over the last 20 years. He’s No. 1 on my 2008 high school prospect list.