2007 Draft: 10 Biggest Storylines

By ALLAN SIMPSON

This year’s draft is still two months away, but already the storylines are starting to crystallize. With input from a handful of major league scouting directors, here’s a look at 10 overriding issues and how they make this draft one of a kind.

1. The Price is Right

Not since the Baltimore Orioles took former Louisiana State righthander Ben McDonald with the top pick in 1989 has the identity of the No. 1 overall selection seemingly been so apparent as this year. Vanderbilt lefthander David Price established himself as the best talent for this year’s draft last summer with a dominant performance with Team USA and the gap has only widened since.

“On ability, he’s the guy,” an American League scouting director said. “I can’t see it any other way. He has clearly separated himself from the rest.”

Tampa Bay has the No. 1 pick and, according to scouting director R.J. Harrison, had narrowed the list of candidates in late March to four—Price, and three other players. Harrison wouldn’t tip his hand who the others were on his short list, but industry sources believed them to be three more college players: North Carolina State righthander Andrew Brackman, Missouri State lefthander Ross Detwiler and Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters.

A second AL scouting director said the 6-foot-6, 215-pound Price is a superior prospect when compared to former North Carolina lefthander Andrew Miller, who was the consensus best talent in the 2006 draft. Miller slid to sixth overall because of concerns over his signability but inked a major league contract with the Detroit Tigers that provided for a $3.55 million signing bonus—the largest bonus given to a 2006 draft pick.

“You compare the two and Price has more ability, more uniqueness to him,” the AL scouting director said. “He’s got more athletic ability, three solid pitches and better strike-zone ability. His command is inconsistent, but it’s still worthy of being the No. 1 pick.”

Since the 6-foot-7 McDonald, who went on to win 78 games in nine years in an injury-plagued career, went wire-to-wire as the obvious player of choice in the 1989 draft, no player has been a cut above the field for an extended period quite like Price—though outfielder Delmon Young (Devil Rays, 2003) and shortstop Justin Upton (Diamondbacks, 2005) came close.

Shortstop Alex Rodriguez quickly established himself as the best talent from the Class of 1993, but a debate raged right to the wire whether the Seattle Mariners would select Rodriguez or that year’s dominant college player, Wichita State righthander Darren Dreifort. Obviously, the Mariners made the right call, taking Rodriguez. In 2001, two players also separated themselves from the pack prior to the season but the issue of who would go No. 1 wasn’t resolved until the Minnesota Twins decided Mark Prior’s price tag was too rich and settled on catcher Joe Mauer, a hometown product.

Though Price is not considered in Prior’s elite class as a prospect, the case for him going No. 1 is more clear cut in Price’s favor. A snag in negotiations with the Devil Rays (he is represented by Tennessee-based agent Bo McKinnis) or an unforeseen injury appear to be the only obstacles that could sidetrack Price from going off the board first.

“They do some strange things from time to time in Tampa Bay ,” said a National League scouting director, “but I can’t see how they can screw this one up. The only concern I see is he throws a lot of pitches, goes deep into games. You just need to keep an eye on that.”

2. Prep Position Players at a Premium

When teams break down the relative strengths of a draft, they normally do so on the basis of four demographics: college pitchers and college position players, high school pitchers and high school position players. This year, it’s almost universal that high school position players are the cream of the crop.

“Without a doubt, that’s the strength of this year’s draft,” said an AL scouting director, speaking from California , “and it’s been reinforced since I’ve been out here on the West Coast. There’s a lot of quality, but more than anything it’s a depth thing.”

California, typically, sets the tone in any draft and the player that has surged to the top of the high school list this spring is third baseman Josh Vitters of Cypress High in Anaheim . He already has been linked to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who own the fourth pick.

Vitters’ best tool has always been his power, but scouts have seen a more refined overall hitter this spring. Defensively, he’s sound but not in the same class as another southern California prep third baseman, Matt Dominguez, who is also a near-lock to go in the first round.

The question with Dominguez has more to do with his bat, but he and Chatsworth High teammate Mike Moustakas put on a head-turning power display in a recent game attended by a large gathering of scouts. Dominguez and Moustakas, who also is rapidly moving into first-round consideration, combined for five homers, with Moustakas hitting three, including a pair of grand slams and driving in 10 runs. On the year, Moustakas homered 12 times in his first 13 games.

Shortstop Ryan Dent of Wilson High in Long Beach ranked right with Vitters as the top prep prospect in California entering the 2007 season on the basis of his athleticism, speed and defensive ability, but his approach to hitting has been more of a work in progress and has drawn the close scrutiny of scouts. He’s considered a borderline first-rounder at this point.

By contrast, the college position player crop in California is one of the leanest in years. “Frankly, it’s horrible,” said an AL scouting director. “I can’t remember it being this bad.”

Pepperdine outfielder Adrian Ortiz is the most appealing talent, but he is viewed as no better than a third- or fourth-rounder. The college pitching crop in California also lacks a headliner, though San Francisco lefthander Aaron Poreda, Cal State Fullerton righthander Wes Roemer and UC Riverside righthander James Simmons could slip into the back end of the first round.

Roemer, who went 13-2, 2.38 with seven walks and 155 strikeouts in 145 innings a year ago, had a slight lead among the three college pitchers entering the year because he seemed like a safe bet for a team that emphasizes performance, but he has not pitched as well this year, going 4-3, 3.83 with 10 walks and 66 strikeouts in 56 innings, and has fallen behind Simmons and Poreda.

“His command hasn’t been sharp and his stuff hasn’t been as crisp,” an AL scouting director said. “He’s not very big or physical to begin with, so there’s not much room for error—and all that has been magnified this year.” 

Besides Vitters, the only other prep position player in the country that is considered a sure bet to go in the top half of the first round is 6-foot-4, 220-pound outfielder Jason Heyward of Henry County High in McDonough, Ga. His strength and power potential are his obvious strengths, but he’s such a feared hitter in the Georgia high school ranks that scouts have had a difficult time getting a read on him this spring because he has not been getting pitched to.

Michael Burgess of Hillsborough High in Tampa was on a par with Heyward as a prospect at the start of the year, but the 5-foot-11, 195-pound outfielder has not swung the bat with the same authority or determination that he has in the past.

“He’s got the big raw power and always takes a great rip,” an NL scouting director said, “but he’s thinking too much at the plate this year. It seems like he has a different stance every time up. I’m sure he’s pressing a bit as the expectations are so high.”

But the crop of high school position players is so deep this year that a number of other infielders have stepped up as potential first-rounders. Among those that have enhanced their stock this spring are Kevin Ahrens of Memorial High in Houston, Jon Gilmore of  Iowa City (Iowa) High, Peter Kozma of  Owasso (Okla.) High and Will Middlebrooks of Liberty Eylau High in Texarkana, Texas.

3. Lefthanders in A League of Their Own

As documented in this column a week ago, lefthanded pitching is an obvious strength of this year’s draft. Starting with Vanderbilt’s David Price and Missouri State ’s Ross Detwiler, the potential exists for as many as 10 lefthanders to go in the first round, which would break the existing draft record of seven, set in 2004.

Other college lefties attracting first-round attention are Maryland’s Brett Cecil, Clemson’s Daniel Moskos, San Francisco’s Aaron Poreda, Rice’s Joe Savery and Arkansas ’ Nick Schmidt. If he returns successfully from a strained shoulder muscle that has sidelined him almost all season, Rice’s Cole St. Clair could be added to that group, too. He made his first appearance of the season on Tuesday, working a scoreless inning.

On the high school side of the equation, Madison Bumgarner of South Caldwell High in Lenoir, N.C., stands at the head of the class, but Georgia’s Josh Smoker and Massachusetts ’ Jack McGeary also are considered solid first-round talents, though McGeary’s status may be compromised by signability concerns as he has committed to Stanford. Florida’s John Gast and Utah ’s Tanner Robles are two more prep lefties generating consideration for the top round.

4. Rule changes create uncertainty

Some of the more far-reaching changes in draft history occurred last October as part of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement between Major League Baseball and the Players Association, and they’ll be implemented with this year’s draft. The most meaningful changes are the abolishment of the draft-and-follow rule and a hard signing deadline of Aug. 15.

In effect, teams can no longer draft players destined for junior college and track their progress for almost a year before making a commitment to sign them. Clubs will now have little more than two months to sign all their draft picks.

The latter half of the draft in recent years was heavily populated with draft-and-follows, with teams making little or no effort to sign the players before they enrolled in junior college in the fall. The draft still remains at 50 rounds, but it’s uncertain now whether teams will continue to draft their full complement of players or simply drop out before that—possibly as early as the 25^th or 30^th round.

No scouting director had an answer.

“It’s a hot topic, for sure,” one AL scouting director said. “No one really knows what’s going to happen. You’d think teams would just drop out after 25, 30 or 35 rounds, but I think most teams will draft a few extra kids, watch them until August, see if they’ve got some money left in their signing budget and then see if the kids want to sign.”

“It’s going to be a tough chore to fill out 50 rounds this year,” another AL scouting director said. “I’m sure teams will draft a number of summer follows, but how many of those kind of players are there? I don’t think it’s realistic for every team to draft an extra 10-15 players, so I would expect you’ll see some of the traditional teams draft only 30, maybe 35 players this year.”

“Quite frankly,” an NL scouting director added, “there’s a limit on the number of summer follows you can take. You have to look at it from a practical standpoint, that if they’re not good enough to go out and play on June 15, then they’re not going to be good enough on Aug. 15.”

The uniform early signing deadline is almost certain to spice up the signing phase of the draft. In the past, a team lost its rights to a player when he set foot in his first college class—in the case of a player attending a four-year school. All too often in recent years, however, high-round picks arbitrarily established their own deadline by simply refusing to attend or return to college. Now, all players are subject to the Aug. 15 deadline. 

“With a real deadline this year, it could be a mad house on Aug. 15,” predicted one scouting director. “I’m sure both teams and agents will use a lot of 11^th-hour leverage to get deals done.”

5. Extra Meat in This Sandwich

There will be a record 34 supplemental first-round picks this year, with the possibility of a 35^th if the Arizona Diamondbacks fail to sign righthander Max Scherzer, their first-round pick from 2006. That total stems largely from a change in the CBA that granted a team a sandwich pick for a Type B free agent lost, instead of that team gaining the signing team’s first- or second-round pick.

In some ways, it will be like adding an extra round to the draft as the second round won’t begin until the 65^th or 66^th pick overall. Combine that factor with a possible across-the-board rollback of signing bonuses, as is expected to be mandated by Major League Baseball before the draft, and a new rule that awards a team a corresponding draft pick in the following year’s draft if it fails to sign a player in the top three rounds, and it could result in a slower, more deliberate pace of player signings this year.

“There could be a lot of posturing by agents this year,” an AL scouting director said. “The 61^st pick last year, for example, was in the second year; this year it’s a sandwich pick and I’m sure they’ll try and use the extra round to their advantage.”

Most baseball insiders, however, believe the slot itself—and not the round—will establish the parameters for what a player will be paid, but a potential reduction in the slot amounts from 2006 could undermine efforts by clubs to draft players on the basis of ability or sign a player expeditiously.

The commissioner’s office has made a concerted effort in this decade to curtail escalating signing bonuses in the early rounds, and bonuses have predictably leveled off and even dipped in the last five years after spiraling out of control in the previous decade. It has largely accomplished its goal through strong rhetoric and implementation of a de-facto slotting system, where clubs are provided an amount for each slot that a player should sign for, based on a descending scale. Most clubs have adhered to that directive.

MLB normally advises its clubs of its recommended slot amounts each year in early May, and there have been rumblings in the industry this spring that bonuses could take a significant hit this year, possibly up to 10 percent. Combine that with a club’s ability to walk away from a deal and gain access to the same pick in 2008, and there could be a serious drag on bonuses this year. In fact, it might slow signings to such a degree that the new Aug. 15 deadline could play a significant role.

On the other hand, it could play right into the hands of an agent like Scott Boras, who relishes in deadline deals. Not only have his clients infrequently signed for slot amounts in recent years, but he’s also embellished his reputation with his ability to leverage deadline deals into windfall bonuses for his clients.

Boras was expected to be a significant force in this year’s draft anyway as he has one of his more impressive client lists in recent years, but the new rules could raise the ante.

Among the college players Boras is advising that have first-round aspirations this year are North Carolina State righthander Andrew Brackman, Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters, Texas Christian righthander Jake Arrieta, Tennessee outfielder Julio Borbon, Georgia closer Josh Fields, Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta and South Carolina closer Wynn Pelzer. Connecticut righthander Matt Harvey, Washington righthander Greg Peavey New Jersey righthander Rick Porcello, California shortstop Mike Moustakas and Alabama outfielder Kentrail Davis are all potential first-rounders on the high school side.

“He’s basically got his own all-star team this year,” an NL scouting director quipped. “It could be interesting.”

6. College Closers Abound

While premium college lefthanders are prevalent in this year’s draft, so are college closers—a mix that is not mutually exclusive as Clemson’s Daniel Moskos, Maryland’s Brett Cecil and possibly Rice’s Cole St. Clair fit both demographics.

Along with those three, righthanders like Georgia’s Josh Fields, South Carolina’s Wynn Pelzer, Oregon State ’s Eddie Kunz, Cal Poly’s Evan Reed, UCLA’s Brant Rustich and Vanderbilt’s Casey Weathers have been scouted as potential first-round picks as well.

But at least one scouting director cautions that just because many of the top college arms this year are closers it’s not necessarily a sign they’ll all be closers at the big league level one day.

“They’re closers only because that’s there position in college,” he said. “Trying to project a future closer is an impossible task at the amateur level. It’s difficult enough with big leaguers. This is an impressive group, for sure, and I can see all of them having a chance in the back end of a big league bullpen one day, possibly with a chance to get hitters out in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings, but closers just happen. You can’t predict a closer in the free-agent market.”

Most scouting directors believe nonetheless that Moskos has the best chance of becoming a big league closer, because he’s highly competitive and has the best assortment of pitches. His fastball has been clocked at 97 mph and he has good command of his secondary stuff. At the same time, scouts say Moskos’ stuff is so good and varied that he could ultimately be a starter in the big leagues. Coincidentally, he was recently moved into Clemson’s rotation and will make his first start of the year this weekend.

With a 96-98 mph fastball and an 86-87 mph slider, Fields ranked right with Moskos as the top college closer at the start of the year in terms of raw stuff, but Fields has struggled in his role all spring, going just 1-5, 5.91 with 15 walks and 30 strikeouts in 21 innings, and his stock has slipped.

“He’s got a big arm, but no command,” said one scouting director. “I think a lot of his problem is he’s been experimenting with a lot of different breaking balls.”

7. High Schools Arms in Northeast

It’s rare for a high school player from the Northeast to be a first-round pick, but this is no ordinary draft class by that standard. This year features four high school arms that will cause scouting directors and crosscheckers to spend much of April and May in that neck of the woods.

Righthanders Rick Porcello of Seton Hall Prep in Chester, N.J., and Matt Harvey of Fitch High in Mistic, Conn., were ranked at or near the top of almost every follow list entering the season, while lefthander Jack McGeary (Roxbury Latin High in Newton, Mass.) is squarely in the mix of the elite group of lefthanders. Righthander Phillippe Aumont, from Gatineau, Quebec, is the remaining member of that quartet. Oddly, Aumont is the only one of the four who has gotten a chance to date to showcase his ability.

The 6-foot-8 Aumont did so in early March in Florida on an exhibition tour with Team Quebec , and dazzled scouts with a fastball that topped out at 97 mph. If he continues to display that kind of velocity the remainder of the spring, he could become the highest-drafted Canadian since two British Columbia lefthanders, Adam Loewen and Jeff Francis, were selected with the fourth and ninth picks, respectively, in the 2002 draft.

“Aumont is ahead of the other Northeast kids at this point,” a scouting director said, “because he’s performed already—and performed well. His status is more certain because we’ve seen him. But that also tells you a lot about the draft this year that a kid from Canada is ahead of kids in the U.S. because he’s been more heavily exposed.”

A number of scouting directors and crosscheckers were tentatively headed to the Northeast early next week to get their first look at Harvey, McGeary and Porcello this spring, but those plans were already being put on hold as snow was forecast for the area.

“It’s going to be a little more difficult to separate the quality of these four guys because we’ll have less opportunity to see them,” an AL scouting director said. “But we’ve got a good history on all of them. We’ve seen them all at least four or five times before.”

The 6-foot-4, 195-pound Harvey and the 6-foot-5, 190-pound Porcello were clocked up to 95 mph last summer and fall. McGeary hasn’t thrown as hard but his success is based more on his feel for pitching.

“Past success is important,” an AL scouting director said, “but you need to see them perform in their platform season. At this point, I would say that they are all in the first round, but I can’t say that any would be in the top half of the round. No matter how good they may turn out to be, we just haven’t seen a lot of high school righthanders in the top half of the first round in recent years, and I’m not sure we will this year.”

In three of the last four drafts, the first prep righthander wasn’t selected until the 16^th pick overall.

There might be an exception this year, however, as Irving (Texas ) High righthander Blake Beavan has performed brilliantly. Through his first 39 innings, Beavan was 6-0, 0.00 with 11 hits, two walks and 80 strikeouts.

“He’s been pretty special so far,” a scouting director said. “He’s shown us a power arm, a wipeout slider and the ability to throw a lot more strikes than he has in the past. I think he’s the one high school righthander that I can say with some certainty will be in the first 10 picks this year.”

8. College catchers in demand

It’s been a rare occurrence in recent years when a college catcher has been drafted in the first round—it’s happened five times in the last 10 years—but this year is definitely an exception as there is a chance for as many as four catchers to go in the top round.

PG Crosschecker’s David Rawnsley documented the strength of this year’s catching crop in a recent column, identifying Georgia Tech’s Matt Wieters, Tennessee’s J.P. Arencibia, Oregon State’s Mitch Canham and Auburn’s Josh Donaldson as potential first-rounders. The catching crop at the college level is so deep, in fact, this year that a number of other college receivers are expected to be picked in the early rounds, as well

“This may be the year for teams to restock their catching depth,” an NL scouting director said. “When you get the chance to do it, you jump at it.”

The high school catching crop is solid, too, but lacks the high-end talent found at the college level. Yasmani Grandal of Miami Springs High in Hialeah, Fla., is considered the best bet to crack the first round.

9. The wild cards

The most conventional picks in any draft are college juniors, high school seniors and junior college players not under control to a club from the previous year’s draft. Everyone else falls into the category of “wild card”, and this year’s draft has more than its share of wild cards.

There are an unusually high number of draft-eligible sophomores, for instance, who will factor their way into the early rounds, led by three Texas players: catcher Preston Clark, outfielder Kyle Russell and third baseman Bradley Suttle.

Clark ranks as the premier defensive catcher in the draft; Suttle, who is batting .422-9-45, has surfaced as one of the top hitters in the college game; and Russell, who led the nation with 18 homers, has moved onto a short list of power-hitting prospects in a draft decidedly lacking in power at the college level. But whether any will surface in the first round may have as much to do with ability as it does signability.

The 6-foot-5, 220-pound Russell, in particular, has attracted the close scrutiny of scouts with his breakthrough season. But not all scouts are convinced yet that he’s the real deal. He was also heavily scouted in high school in 2005, but ended up enrolling at Texas without being drafted. Russell then struggled over the second half of his freshman year with the Longhorns and suffered a disastrous 2006 summer season, hitting just .202 while setting a Cape Cod League record for strikeouts. Now he’s rebounded to have one of the best seasons in college baseball this spring.

“He’s been like the Dow Jones industrial average,” an AL scouting director said. “He’s been up, then down, and back up again. We’ve known about his ability for a long time and have a lot of data on him, but he’s not been consistent on the normal development curve so we’ll have to watch him closely the rest of the way. From what we’ve seen, he’s got a chance to hit for power and the rest of his package is OK. It might just become a case if he’s ready to sign or not.”

Other draft-eligible sophomores making a lot of noise this spring are Auburn outfielder Mike Bianucci, Georgia Tech lefthander David Duncan, Alabama closer Tommy Hunter, North Carolina righthander Luke Putkonen, Washington State outfielder-righthander Jared Prince and Arizona closer Daniel Schlereth.

“With draft-eligible sophomores and the leverage they have,” an AL scouting director said, “you have to make sure you’re on the same page with them. You have to know what the player’s intentions are, or you can get burned.”

College seniors that are drafted in the first round are a rare breed, too, with only two—South Carolina’s Landon Powell in 2004 and Clemson’s Khalil Greene in 2002—earning that distinction in the last five drafts. This year’s draft alone may have two in resurgent Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta and hard-throwing Vanderbilt closer Casey Weathers.

LaPorta was supposed to be a first-round pick a year ago after hitting a national-best 26 homers in 2005 as a sophomore, but he slumped to 13 in an injury-plagued season and his draft stock plummeted to the 14^th round. But LaPorta has rebounded in an impressive way this spring, hitting .433 with 15 homers. He got his power game untracked in a big way with 10 homers over a recent seven-game stretch.

Weathers was a 25^th-round pick of the Detroit Tigers in 2006 after converting from the outfield to the mound earlier in the year. If there was reluctance then to gamble on an unproven arm, Weathers has convinced scouts this spring that he’s the real deal with a fastball that has been clocked as high as 98 mph and a rapidly-improving slider. He has excelled as Vanderbilt’s closer.

Meanwhile, righthander Jordan Walden of Grayson County (Texas ) College is the one junior college player who could work his way into the first round. But he remains under control to the Los Angeles Angels, who drafted him in the 12^th round a year ago, and the Angels have first crack at him. They have until May 31 to sign him, or else he goes back into the draft. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound Walden has been clocked as high as 97 mph this spring.

10. Draft-day TV coverage

This was supposed to be the year that the baseball draft made its long-awaited debut on mainstream TV. The master plan was for ESPN and its affiliate of networks to televise the first round and supplemental first round, with much of the pomp and circumstance that is associated with the network’s coverage of the NFL draft.

 

It appeared that scenario was falling nicely into place earlier this year until Major League Baseball became embroiled in a deal of its own involving Direct TV that impacted Extra Innings and the creation of the new The Baseball Channel on Direct TV. Televising the draft suddenly became a backburner issue, but now that MLB has reached a resolution on its Extra Innings package talks are expected to heat up again with ESPN.