Devil Rays Pondering Price, 3 Others

By ALLAN SIMPSON

3/19/07

R.J. Harrison will preside over his first draft in June as scouting director of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who have the distinction of making the No. 1 selection. But it’s not like Harrison is unfamiliar with the process.

In a playing, coaching and scouting career that has spanned more than 30 years, Harrison has had direct contact or been associated with the No. 1 overall pick six times previously. He’s seen enough to know that for all their apparent talent, few such picks ever measure up to the hype. He also knows enough that it’s prudent to keep an open mind and not jump to any preconceived conclusions when deciding on which player to take.

“Our goal, as an organization, is to take the best player available,” he said. “We had a fair idea coming into the year who the top guys would be and there have been no surprises yet. But it’s still early and I challenge our scouts every day to keep an open mind, to make sure they don’t close out guys that might become a Mike Mussina, or someone of that order. Every year there are some great major leaguers signed that are mid-to-late first-rounders; you also have some clunkers at the top.

“I would rather have more candidates early on and do a diligent job scouting them than realize at the end of the process that we haven’t done our homework on a couple of guys. But, realistically, there are four guys that we are looking at right now.”

Vanderbilt lefthander David Price is the consensus top talent in this year’s draft. He would also seem to be a perfect fit for the Devil Rays as he would address a pressing need for pitching in short order. Harrison acknowledged that Price is on his short list of four and that he has had at least one scout see every one of his starts.

“He’s the standard by which we’re measuring everyone at this point,” he said. “He’s performed every time out. But there are such high expectations of the first pick that it’s very tough living up to them.”

Harrison also cautioned that college pitching isn’t always the quick-fix solution it’s made out to be.

“I’m not sure that it is,” he said. “If you start narrowing your list to just college pitchers, it’s a convoluted way of thinking. How many truly work out that way? How many college pitchers have impacted a big league staff in the short term? Most won’t pitch the first year, either because they get involved in long, drawn-out negotiations or they are worn down from a long college season. They need time to recover, so their first big thing becomes the next year. Then it takes time to learn to get pro hitters out. It’s just not the right mentality to take the best college pitcher available if he’s not the best guy.

“Last year we talked about college pitching extensively early on because it was a hell of a year for college pitching going in. But the names changed over the course of the spring, and we went in a different direction. So you never know.”

The Devil Rays, picking third in 2006, went for shortstop Evan Longoria and the former Long Beach State product had the most productive debut of any 2006 draft pick while advancing to Double-A. He’s on the doorstep of playing in the big leagues.

Draft history and his own personal involvement has also taught Harrison to be skeptical that No. 1 picks aren’t always what they are cracked out to be—if only because it is often unrealistic for them to live up to the hype.

Harrison was a college roommate of Arizona State lefthander Floyd Bannister, who became the top pick of the Astros in 1976. In back-to-back years, Bannister struck out more than 200 college hitters.

“He was a tremendous talent, one of the best college pitchers I’ve ever seen,” Harrison said. “But did he live up to being a 1-1? Probably not. He pitched 15 seasons in the big leagues, led the American League in strikeouts one year and had a good career by almost any standard, but the expectations are so high for No. 1 picks to live up to.”

Harrison went on to play five years of pro ball, first as a catcher then as a pitcher, and was a teammate of outfielder Al Chambers, the top pick in the 1979 draft, at the Double-A level. Chambers never came close to fulfilling his potential, hitting only .208 in 57 big league games for the Mariners.

In 1981, Harrison was a player/pitching coach for Seattle’s Double-A club in Lynn, Mass., the initial destination for that year’s No. 1 pick, Oral Roberts righthander Mike Moore. “He had a solid big league career,” Harrison said, “but he never fulfilled the expectations inherent with being a 1-1 pick. It’s a very hard thing to do.”

Harrison was an area scout in 1994 for the Mets, when they took Florida State righthander Paul Wilson with the top pick. He was a national crosschecker for the Devil Rays in 1999 and 2003 when they took high school outfielders Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young with the No. 1 overall picks, respectively.

“It’s going to be a challenge to try and find the best prospect in this year’s draft,” Harrison admitted. “We hope to find the very best player we can, someone with great ability and great character, someone that will lift our club a long way.”

Draft-Eligible Sophomores Are Tough Call

For Texas , and for the major league teams that are considering drafting them, it’s a dilemma. For Preston Clark, Kyle Russell and Bradley Suttle, it’s the ultimate leverage position.

The three talented University of Texas sophomores are all eligible for this year’s draft, putting them in the enviable position of maximizing their bargaining positions like no other demographic in the draft. They are considered wild cards because they can come out a year earlier than most four-year college players and potentially capitalize on their unique status; if they elect not to sign this year, they will still be an enviable draft position a year from now.

“Draft-eligible sophomores always presents an interesting dilemma for clubs,” said a major league scouting director. “With two years of eligibility remaining, they’ve got that extra year of leverage. You have to be that much more careful in gauging the signability of these kids than your normal college players, or else you’ll get burned.”

Texas also could get burned if it misreads the intentions of the three players. If they all return for their junior years, the three would be the centerpiece of a strong 2008 Longhorn team. If they choose to leave a year early, it would leave three gaping holes in the Texas lineup.

Suttle, a third baseman, led the Longhorns with a .425 average through the team’s first 27 games. He had six homers and 32 RBIs, and also had committed just one error at third base. Russell led the Longhorns with 13 home runs, while hitting .387; four times this year he had hit two homers in a game. At .273-2-17, Clark hasn’t provided the offense that Russell and Suttle have, but he is a stalwart behind the plate. He is regarded as the nation’s premier defensive catcher.

“There’s no question that college sophomores are looked at in a different light than most college players,” Texas associate head coach Tommy Harmon said. “These are three quality kids that are clearly in a win-win situation. They just need to keep playing and see what happens.”

Russell and Suttle are true sophomores, while Clark, who sat out his freshman year for academic reasons, is a red-shirt sophomore. All are eligible for this year’s draft because they’ll be 21 when the draft is conducted.

Russell, who hit .276-10-42 for the Longhorns as a true freshman in 2006, had the most to prove this year among the three Longhorns sophomores. He was a major disappointment last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he hit just .206 and led the league with 64 strikeouts in just 126 at-bats.

“He started very fast last year,” Harmon said, “then went into a major funk that continued through the summer. Mentally, he put a lot of pressure on himself. He would swing and miss, and get frustrated. Then he would swing even harder. It got to a point where he never even saw the ball he was so messed up. But he’s come back this year with a ‘can do’ attitude. He’s made a lot of adjustments mentally, even pitch to pitch within an at-bat. It’s made a big difference. He’s back on track.”

In a draft where legitimate power hitters at the college level are in short supply this year, the 6-foot-5, 195-pound Russell may have as much raw power as anyone. In one of the best power displays of the 2007 season to date, Russell launched two balls in one game out of Long Beach State ’s Blair Field, notoriously one of the toughest home run parks in college baseball. “It’s a rare occurrence that you ever see a lefthanded batter hit one out of that place, especially at night,” a scouting director said, “but he hit two of them. That opened a lot of eyes.”

With his new, relaxed approach to hitting, Russell has curbed his strikeouts while showing much greater plate discipline and awareness. He had fanned 24 times in his first 117 plate appearances, while walking 17 times—a sharp upgrade from 2006, when he walked 17 times and struck out 55 times in 192 plate appearances.

Suttle hit a modest .301-4-36 for the Longhorns as a true freshman, but has developed into one of the top hitters in the country this spring. Harmon says his improvement at the plate has coincided with a move from second base to third base, his natural position.

“He’s much more comfortable at third than he was at second,” Harmon said. “He hasn’t taken his fielding troubles to the plate this season, like he did last year. Our park isn’t very conducive to hitting, but he’s really swung the bat extremely well for us. There’s no doubt he’s one of the best pure hitters in the nation.”

While Suttle is considered an average defender with an above-average arm, his lack of speed and medical history—he has Type I diabetes—are issues that might keep him from going in the first round.

Clark has also been a much improved player this year, though his numbers at the plate are similar to last year. With him, an upgrade in confidence has made him a better all-around player.

“He matured a lot last summer when he played with Team USA ,” Harmon said. “He got his confidence back when he saw that he could play on the same level as some of the best players in the country. He does everything well defensively, and does it easily. He enjoys the defensive part of the game and has a great relationship with his pitchers. Anything he does at the plate is a bonus.”

On talent, Clark, Russell and Suttle are potential first-round picks. But there’s no telling where they may be drafted in June because of their class standing.

“Because there are serious questions about their signability, there’s quite a range where they might all be drafted,” a scouting director said. “All three are legitimate prospects at a legitimate program, so there will be a lure for them to stay another year. In a lot of ways, they’re viewed the same as high school seniors because they have significant leverage beyond this year. That always presents an interesting dilemma.

“There’s no doubt all three can be first-round picks. It’s just a case whether it’s this year or next.”

College Sophomores Are Unique Breed

While college sophomores are draft-eligible only if they have turned 21 within 45 days of the draft, there was a time when all college sophomores were eligible for the draft. That was from 1965-68, the first four years of the draft.

Arizona State outfielders Rick Monday (1965, 1^st overall pick) and Reggie Jackson (1966, 2^nd overall pick), the first college players selected in the first two drafts, both were drafted and signed as college sophomores. Monday was just 19 when he signed—almost six months shy of his 20^th birthday. He and Jackson also played just a single year of varsity competition at the college level as freshmen were prohibited from playing varsity baseball until 1968.

Major League Baseball’s college rule was amended that year to preclude teams from drafting any players—including juniors—who had not turned 21 within 45 days of the draft. That rule was subsequently changed in 1976, making all juniors, regardless of age, eligible for the draft. It explains why a talent like Minnesota ’s Dave Winfield, a future Hall of Famer, was not drafted in 1971 as a junior; a year later, he was the fourth overall pick in the draft.

Through the years, a handful of college sophomores have been drafted in the first round but some of the more prominent ones like Kirk Gibson (1978, 12^th pick), Bobby Witt (1985, 3^rd pick) and Mark Mulder (1998, 2^nd pick) actually spent three years in college; they were red-shirted one year. The most significant true college sophomore to be drafted since the current college rule went into effect is righthander Gregg Olson, the fourth overall pick in 1988. Olson went on to save 217 games in a 14-year big league career.

Not only is it rare for college sophomores to be draft-eligible, let alone be high-round picks, but the 2007 draft could be a historic year for such players.

Texas is in uncharted waters with the trio of Clark, Russell and Suttle on one roster, but this year also has an abundance of draft-eligible sophomores sprinkled throughout the college game. Other players with an opportunity of being drafted in the early rounds are Auburn outfielder Mike Bianucci, Michigan State catcher Kyle Day, Georgia Tech lefthander David Duncan, Alabama righthander Tommy Hunter, Tulane outfielder Warren McFadden, Washington State outfielder-righthander Jared Prince, North Carolina righthander Luke Putkonen, Arizona lefthander Daniel Schlereth and Nebraska righthander Charlie Shirek.

Texas Tech righthander Miles Morgan would have been foremost among that group, too, but he went on the shelf after one start with a torn rotator cuff and has been lost for the season. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound righthander was the Big 12 Conference Freshman Pitcher of the Year in 2006, when he went 6-7, 3.63 with 103 strikeouts in 107 innings. He also missed 2005, his true freshman year at Texas Tech.

Chatsworth Start Belies Its Talent

By its own lofty standards, the 2007 season already qualifies as a disappointment for California ’s Chatsworth High. The Chancellors lost three times in their first nine games—a shocking start for a program that won back-to-back national titles in 2003-04 and went 178-15 overall in the seven-year period from 2000-06.

What’s even more surprising is that Chatsworth has struggled with a team that will make a greater impact on this year’s draft than any Chancellors team of the past. Chatsworth features three seniors who could factor into the top five rounds: third baseman Matt Dominguez, shortstop Mike Moustakas and outfielder Bobby Coyle.

Dominguez, a Cal State Fullerton recruit, is projected to go in the first round. Moustakas, who has committed to USC, is considered a possible sandwich pick to second-rounder. Coyle, an Arizona signee, is merely a third- to fifth-round talent.

“They’re all good; they’re all legitimate prospects,” an area scout confirmed. “Dominguez is a first-rounder; the only thing that might keep Moustakas from going right after him is he’s represented by Scott Boras.”

Dominguez has been a prodigious hitter since his freshman season, when he set a school record with 65 RBIs, while hitting .481 with eight homers as Chatsworth ran the table with 35 straight wins. His numbers have fallen off since, as he hit .416-10-49 as a sophomore and .370-10-32 as a junior but he’s long since proved himself with the bat. It’s his glove that has caught the attention of scouts this spring.

“He’s so good that he’s a potential Gold Glover,” a national crosschecker said. “His defense is outstanding.”

The 6-foot, 195-pound Moustakas set a school record with 12 homers as a sophomore and topped that mark with 14 as a junior. Understandably, his power is his best tool but scouts have been impressed with extra weight he’s lost since his junior year.

“He’s gotten a lot quicker,” a crosschecker said. “There’s more life in his body this year. His bat profiles as a third baseman, and he should fit in nicely there as his hands and feet work OK and he has an above-average arm.”

The 6-foot-1, 180-pound Coyle hit .426-6-35 a year ago for the Chancellors. As the team’s 5-hole hitter, he provides plenty of support in the batting order for Dominguez and Moustakas. But a lack of speed and arm strength may compromise his position in the draft.

The last high school team to have three prominent draft picks was Russell County High of Phenix City, Ala., which succeeded the Chancellors as the nation’s No. 1 team in 2005. Russell County featured outfielder Colby Rasmus, a first-round pick of the Cardinals in 2005; his younger brother Cory, a supplemental first-round pick of the Braves in 2006; and lefthander Kasey Kiker, a first-round pick of the Rangers in last year’s draft.

LaPorta Tries a New Approach

As the nation’s top home run hitter in 2005, Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta was supposed to write his own ticket as a first-round pick in last year’s draft. But things never quite worked out that way as LaPorta was burdened with a combination of heightened expectations and an oblique muscle pull that sapped his power.

As his home run total dropped from 26 as a sophomore to 14 as a junior, his stock in the draft plummeted as well. He wasn’t selected until the 14^th round of last year’s draft by the Red Sox. Despite a late offer from Boston that reportedly approached late first-round money, LaPorta rejected all overtures from the Red Sox and elected to return to Florida for his senior year.

Through his first 22 games this season, LaPorta had homered just five times. But he also led the Gators with a .389 average, and scouts have been impressed with the way he has made himself a much better all-around hitter this spring. A year ago, he hit only .259.

“He’s a more complete hitter now,” a scout said. “He’s still got the raw power when he wants to show it but he’s not swinging for the fences every time up. He’s not striking out nearly as much, either. He’s not chasing pitches with two strikes anymore. He’s working the count better and has become a much tougher out, with much more discipline.”

Wheras LaPorta struck out 65 times in 70 games as a sophomore, when he led the nation in homers, he had struck out only five times this season. Moreover, he had walked 18 times and been hit by pitches on 10 more occasions.

Whether his new approach at the plate will land him in the first round a year later than he hoped is unclear. LaPorta is still represented by agent Scott Boras and the “Boras Factor”, as one scouting director described it, is bound to have a large bearing on where’s he picked—whether it’s in the first round or the fifth round.

“You need to bet on the bat, but from what I’ve seen I think he’s a first-round talent,” the scouting director said. “But the whole deal will depend on which team Boras is able to work out a deal with. You never get a bargain deal with Scott.”